Week 10 of the college football season is in the books, as Alabama, Washington and Georgia each made their case for a national title. Meanwhile, a number of teams stepped out of the national spotlight with Oklahoma, LSU and Missouri each suffering their second loss of the season.
Fewer than a dozen teams have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, as the futures market continues to shift until the final rankings on Dec. 3.
Here's the updated list of national title contenders, along with their chance of sweeping their remaining schedule, including a conference championship game:
To determine where value is in the national championship market, we must follow the “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff.”
These rules serve as a roadmap to the national semifinal, detecting value in futures before the committee releases the rankings.
The first set of rankings were released nine seasons ago, giving consumers 36 different data points for entry into the playoff.
The goal of this column is to find the best betting value before each Tuesday checkpoint when the committee updates its rankings.
Here's a look at the Four Commandments to apply when handicapping the ever-changing selection committee.
1
CFP Commandment No. 1
“An undefeated Power 5 conference champion is automatically in.”
Note: We have never had five undefeated Power 5 champions, and that will continue with the cannibalization of the Big 12.
Florida State, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia are the only Power 5 teams that remain undefeated.
2
CFP Commandment No. 2
“A one-loss Power 5 conference champion is automatically in… barring a Purdue-esque event.”
Note: Ohio State was left out of the 2018 College Football Playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion.
Alabama was selected as an at-large after taking its first loss in the SEC Championship game, while the Buckeyes couldn’t recover from a 49-20 defeat at the hands of a 6-6 Purdue team.
Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Penn State and Ole Miss currently meet this criteria. None of these teams have suffered an embarrassing loss, but Louisville’s loss to Pittsburgh is a knockout.
Ole Miss, Alabama, Penn State, and Oregon all hold losses to teams ranked in the Top 10.
3
CFP Commandment No. 3
“A two-loss Power 5 conference champion cannot jump a one-loss team into the Playoff.”
Note: This precedent was set when Ohio State missed the CFP in 2017 as the Big Ten champion with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
No current two-loss teams have the resume to make the Playoff.
4
CFP Commandment No. 4
“A two-loss Power 5 team trumps an undefeated Group of Five team with the right strength of record and head-to-head victories.”
Note: UCF finished 2018 undefeated but was passed by two-loss Michigan and Georgia. Cincinnati continued to fall in the 2020 rankings, as three-loss Florida and two-loss Oklahoma passed the Bearcats.
In 2021, Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff because of a head-to-head victory over No. 5 Notre Dame, while No. 6 Ohio State was not selected as a two-loss team after head-to-head losses against No. 2 Michigan and No. 14 Oregon.
Tulane is expected to rank in the Top 25 as a one-loss team, but its loss to Ole Miss limits its path as far as the Rebels can go.
Bracket 1: SEC Championship
Contenders: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
The path for Ole Miss to attend the SEC Championship game is murky at best.
The Rebels have the double whammy in this group, first needing to win out the SEC schedule. That path includes Georgia this week, against whom Ole Miss opened as a two-touchdown underdog.
On top of that, Alabama must suffer losses against Kentucky and Auburn to concede the division. While the price may be 150-1 in the futures market, Ole Miss has true odds closer to 400-1, giving no value to the Rebels.
Believe it or not, Alabama has the easier projected path to the College Football Playoff.
Georgia has not lost a game and could suffer a loss, but it has a lower chance to sweep the schedule with Tennessee and Georgia Tech remaining in the regular season. If the Bulldogs are to survive undefeated, Alabama awaits in the SEC Championship game.
The Action Network Power Ratings put Georgia at -2.5 over Alabama on a neutral site, giving all the value on the SEC side of the bracket to a Crimson Tide ticket at 9-1 or better.
Bracket 2: Big Ten East
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Week 10 was subdued for the Big Ten East, as each of the teams in contention for the national title had blowout conference victories.
That will all change with Michigan making the trip to State College in Week 11.
Penn State has found the explosive play since a recent loss to Ohio State, thanks to an increase in risk with the passing game. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the contest against the Buckeyes with just 15 passing attempts over 20 yards. Since the loss, Allar has attempted 12 passes over 20 yards in the past two games.
Michigan is less than a touchdown favorite on the road this week, so tiebreakers could be in play for the Big Ten East. If Penn State is victorious, the Nittany Lions may have the tiebreakers in the division for a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game thanks to Iowa.
Thanks to the Wolverines' ranking in the initial College Football Playoff ranking, Penn State would have the best victory of any team with a win over Michigan.
Any wagers on Penn State in Week 11 should come with a 100-1 ticket to win the national title.
Bracket 3: Pac-12 Champion
Contenders: Washington, Oregon
Washington remains undefeated after a test on the road against USC. There are still hurdles on the schedule with Utah and Oregon State remaining.
The Huskies have one of the lowest chances of sweeping the remainder of the schedule with Oregon projected in the Pac-12 Championship.
Although Washington is undefeated, the selection committee placed Kalen DeBoer’s team outside the top four of the playoff rankings. That's enough of a signal that Washington may not have the quality of victories needed to slip into the playoff if the Huskies incur a loss.
The path is much easier for Oregon, as it'll host both USC and Oregon State down the stretch. A possible trap spot in Tempe exists during Week 12, but with an 81% chance of a schedule sweep that includes a conference title game against the Huskies, Oregon is a serious contender for the College Football Playoff.
Although we jumped on 30-1 a couple of weeks ago, a renewed price tag of 10-1 may hold value as the Ducks complete the regular season.
ACC or Big 12 Champion
Contenders: Florida State, Louisville, Texas
There are a number of possible scenarios for conference champions not mentioned and the at-large status of one-loss teams expecting to hover around the top four of the rankings.
Our “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff” must be followed in determining betting value on the following teams:
Florida State Wins ACC
The Seminoles cruised in Week 10 on the road at Pittsburgh.
While Florida State didn't cover the game, the biggest story might be the injuries to the elite wide receiver combination of Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. Both are expected to be back in the lineup soon, and Florida State is set to host the Miami Hurricanes this weekend.
The Seminoles also project as a two-touchdown favorite against Florida to end the regular season.
With Louisville penciled in at Charlotte for the ACC Championship, Florida State is in an interesting predicament from a price perspective. A loss to any of the remaining teams would knock the Seminoles out of the playoff, so +600 is a price that will never get more attractive if it sweeps the schedule.
Texas Wins Big 12
The Longhorns survived Kansas State's ground assault, advancing deeper into the conference schedule.
Texas is not slated to play Oklahoma State until a potential championship game in Arlington, but a tough schedule remains for head coach Steve Sarkisian.
The Horns will hit the road two weeks straight, seeking victories over TCU and Iowa State. If Texas survives the road travel, Texas Tech has the chance to play spoiler at the end of the regular season.
Texas has a 68% chance to sweep the remainder of the schedule, including a bout with the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium. The stock is a pass at the price of +1500.
Louisville Wins ACC
No team has lower odds of sweeping the remainder of its schedule than Louisville. The Cardinals will face Virginia, Miami and Kentucky to end the regular season.
If head coach Jeff Brohm is to survive all of that, Louisville projects as an 11-point underdog against Florida State in the ACC Championship.
A rolling moneyline parlay of Louisville pays closer to 300-1 than the current market of 200-1, making the biggest underdog on the board a pass.
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