Two teams were eliminated from the College Football Playoff race after the dust settled from Rivalry Week.
Louisville took its second loss of the season against Kentucky, removing its longshot odds of sweeping its remaining schedule and needed chaos to make the semifinals.
The bigger loss came in Ann Arbor, where Ohio State suffered a third consecutive loss to Michigan. "The Game" has propelled the Wolverines as a firm national title contender with expectations that the Buckeyes fall as far as eighth in the playoff standings.
The hot question continues to be the ascension of the Pac-12 and Texas against an undefeated Florida State team. The Seminoles' resume is in question, with a strength of schedule rank of 56th with the Cardinals on deck.
Florida State did what was asked in Week 13, covering on the road against a rival in Florida.
Chaos could ensue with both Texas and Alabama winning their respective conferences, as the Longhorns hold the advantage over the Crimson Tide. Never forget — chaos is a ladder, and the ladder is the current National Championship odds board.
Here's the updated list of national title contenders, along with their chance of sweeping their remaining schedule that includes a conference championship game:
To determine where value is in the national championship market, we must follow the “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff.”
These rules serve as a roadmap to the national semifinal, detecting value in futures before the committee releases the rankings.
The first set of rankings were released nine seasons ago, giving consumers 36 different data points for entry into the playoff.
The goal of this column is to find the best betting value before each Tuesday checkpoint when the committee updates its rankings.
Here's a look at the Four Commandments to apply when handicapping the ever-changing selection committee.
1
CFP Commandment No. 1
“An undefeated Power 5 conference champion is automatically in.”
Note: We have never had five undefeated Power 5 champions, and that will continue with the cannibalization of the Big 12.
Florida State, Michigan, Washington and Georgia are the only Power 5 teams that remain undefeated.
2
CFP Commandment No. 2
“A one-loss Power 5 conference champion is automatically in… barring a Purdue-esque event.”
Note: Ohio State was left out of the 2018 College Football Playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion.
Undefeated Notre Dame was selected as an at-large while Oklahoma was selected as a one loss Big 12 Champion. The Buckeyes couldn’t recover from a 49-20 defeat at the hands of a 6-6 Purdue team.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas currently meet this criteria. None of these teams have suffered an embarrassing loss, but Louisville’s loss to Pittsburgh is a knockout.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas all hold losses to teams with a top-15 ranking.
3
CFP Commandment No. 3
“A two-loss Power 5 conference champion cannot jump a one-loss team into the Playoff.”
Note: This precedent was set when Ohio State missed the CFP in 2017 as the Big Ten champion with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
No current two-loss teams have the resume to make the playoff.
4
CFP Commandment No. 4
“A two-loss Power 5 team trumps an undefeated Group of Five team with the right strength of record and head-to-head victories.”
Note: UCF finished 2018 undefeated but was passed by two-loss Michigan and Georgia. Cincinnati continued to fall in the 2020 rankings, as three-loss Florida and two-loss Oklahoma passed the Bearcats.
In 2021, Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff because of a head-to-head victory over No. 5 Notre Dame, while No. 6 Ohio State was not selected as a two-loss team after head-to-head losses against No. 2 Michigan and No. 14 Oregon.
Tulane will continue to rank in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings, but its loss to Ole Miss shuts the door on a playoff opportunity.
Bracket 1: SEC Championship
Contenders: Georgia, Alabama
- SEC Championship: Alabama +5 vs. Georgia
The SEC Championship game has Georgia favored by less than a touchdown over Alabama. With a market consensus moneyline of -200, the Bulldogs will look to beat the Crimson Tide in a quarterfinal game in Atlanta.
Using Action Network's parlay calculator, Georgia’s toughest path includes Michigan and Oregon, per Action Network's Betting Power Ratings. The true odds for Georgia against Alabama, Michigan and Oregon are +355, slightly lower than the current market consensus.
Alabama will have three potential games as an underdog to win the national title. As potential two-point underdogs against Michigan and Oregon at a neutral-site field, the true odds for Alabama to win the national title come in at +1100.
Neither Alabama nor Georgia have market numbers close to their true odds of winning the title, but the SEC is expected to send a heavily-favored team to the playoff.
Bracket 2: Big Ten East
Contenders: Michigan
- Big Ten Championship: Michigan -23 vs. Iowa
The real work now begins for Michigan after saddling Ohio State once again. The good news for the Wolverines is a conference championship game that projects to be a snoozer.
The hurdle for Michigan has been the national semifinals for the past two seasons. Projecting spreads against Georgia and Oregon would be the toughest potential path.
The true odds for Michigan to sweep the Ducks and Bulldogs is +335 based on two spreads set at less than a field goal.
The current market has dipped below 2-1 on Wolverines futures, meaning we should wait on Michigan futures until after the Big Ten Championship.
Bracket 3: Pac-12 Champion
Contenders: Washington, Oregon
- Pac-12 Championship: Oregon -9 vs. Washington
In the words of Anchorman's Ron Burgundy, that escalated quickly.
Those words can be said about the point spread between Oregon and Washington over the past several weeks. Washington beat Oregon at home in Week 7, but the market has shown nothing but love for the Ducks throughout their path to the conference championship in Las Vegas.
Oregon moved from a short favorite to a near double-digit number over the past three weeks despite Washington’s continued success as an undefeated team.
Now, the Huskies are +270 on the moneyline to win the Pac-12.
If Washington was to survive, it would again be a touchdown underdog against Georgia and Michigan. The true odds for Washington to win the national title are +3200 — nowhere near any number from various oddsmakers.
Powered by small power rating margins against Georgia and Michigan, the Ducks are a true national title contender. Oregon is power-rated in between the Bulldogs and Wolverines, giving Oregon true odds of +380 to win the national title.
Once again, Oregon to win the national title has value, this time at any number 4-1 or better.
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Florida State or Texas
Contenders: Florida State, Texas
The selection committee is expected to move Florida State back into the top four with Ohio State taking a drop.
The question remains whether a one-loss Texas has enough of a resume to hop the Seminoles in the case both teams win their respective conferences.
The Longhorns have the trump card with a victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa, a resume that improves if the Crimson Tide defeat Georgia on Saturday.
With a full game of quarterback Tate Rodemaker leading the way for Florida State, the committee’s decision on Tuesday evening may provide hints about the final rankings on Sunday.
Our “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff” must be followed in determining betting value on the following teams.
Texas Wins Big 12
- Big 12 Championship: Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma State
The Longhorns were the team to bet last week at +1400 or better. The only obstacle in the way of Texas making its first-ever College Football Playoff is the committee and its views on Florida State.
Texas is more than a -600 favorite over Oklahoma State, with potential Michigan and Georgia games waiting in the playoff. The Longhorns would be near touchdown underdogs to both the Wolverines and Bulldogs, putting the true odds of Texas winning the title at +960.
Of course, the projected calculations of a parlay rollover are completely dependent on the selection committee adding Texas to the semifinals.
Florida State Wins ACC
- ACC Championship: Florida State -5 vs. Louisville
The national title odds remain unchanged after Rivalry Week, with the Seminoles listing at 25-1 odds to take home the final four-team playoff. The number has little mathematical value, as both Michigan and Georgia project as double-digit favorites.
Florida State would enter a potential semifinal anywhere from a +350 to +450 underdog on the moneyline, bringing the true odds of a Seminoles national championship to 42-1.
However, that number is completely dependent on the committee selecting Florida State to make the College Football Playoff.
