College Football Playoff Futures, Picks: Do Ole Miss, Penn State Hold Value Ahead of Week 5?

We're back for the second edition of what will be a regular column all the way until the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is officially unveiled on Sunday, Dec., 8.

We are in uncharted territory with 2024 marking the first year of an expanded postseason that will triple the number of schools that will have an opportunity to compete for a National Championship.

In each edition, I'll sort teams into different tiers based on their likelihood of qualifying for the playoff. I'll also discuss their “To Make the Playoff” odds and evaluate whether or not I see value on any teams based on those numbers. All odds are via DraftKings as of Tuesday morning.

Additionally, as I've done in the past, I'll slowly eliminate teams that no longer have any pathway to the playoff. We started the year with 133 hopefuls (Kennesaw State is ineligible for the postseason as it transitions to FBS), but that number will decrease all the way down to the mid-teens before selection day.

A quick reminder on the new format — the four highest-ranked conference champions receive an auto-bid, top-four seed and bye into the quarterfinal round. The fifth-highest ranked conference champ, presumably the top Group of Five team, receives an auto-bid into the first round.

The remaining seven entrants will be at-large bids based on the final committee rankings on Dec. 8.

Without further ado, let’s dive into some College Football Playoff futures and picks in this edition on Playoff Palooza.

Tier 1: In the CFP Driver’s Seat (9)

It's important to note that this early in the year, teams can fall out of this tier quickly. Through four weeks, each team here has been dominant and is well-positioned to continue to win throughout the year.

Any team in the “Driver’s Seat” tier throughout the year would qualify for the playoff if the season ended at that moment.

Georgia Bulldogs (-750 To Make CFP)

The Bulldogs don’t need much of an introduction.

Once again loaded with talent, Kirby Smart’s team is heavily juiced to make the playoff in part because of its talent and in part because it could afford a couple of losses with a loaded SEC schedule.

UGA did have to survive a scare in Lexington in Week 3, and it now heads to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in a pivotal game for both teams.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee

Ohio State Buckeyes (-900)

Just like Georgia, there’s no value at this number, but the Buckeyes appear very well-positioned to make the postseason. This is the most talented roster in the Big Ten, and OSU has not been tested to this point.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Iowa, at Oregon, vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Michigan

Texas Longhorns (-600)

The Longhorns have soared all the way up to No. 1 in the polls after some dominant performances week over week.

A two-week stretch in mid-October with the Red River Rivalry followed by a visit from Georgia will go a long way in determining where this team will be seeded, but the playoff feels like a certainty at this point.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Oklahoma (neutral), vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M

Oregon Ducks (-400)

After a bit of a sloppy start, the Ducks really impressed in a rout of rival Oregon State. A showdown with the Buckeyes in Eugene awaits in a few weeks.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ohio State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington

Penn State Nittany Lions (-400)

I see some value in this number on the Nittany Lions to make the playoff.

PSU has a very favorable schedule aside from two difficult games against USC and Ohio State. If it splits those and handles business elsewhere, a playoff ticket would be punched. A 10-2 finish is where things would get interesting.

Toughest Remaining Games: at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, at Washington

Ole Miss Rebels (-250)

I continue to be really impressed with the Rebels even if their dominance has come against inferior competition thus far.

I believe this team is ready for SEC play and would once again recommend a wager at this number for Ole Miss to find its way into the bracket.

Toughest Remaining Games: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia

Alabama Crimson Tide (-350)

I think this number is too steep, and I actually don't hate a "No" wager at plus-money when it comes to Alabama and the playoff.

I like UGA to get it done at Bryant-Denny Stadium this week, which would put a lot of pressure on Alabama in three very difficult road games in Knoxville, Baton Rouge and Norman.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Oklahoma

Miami Hurricanes (-200)

The Canes continue to handle business in very impressive fashion. It's well-documented how manageable the schedule is, and it feels like Miami and Clemson may be on a collision course for the ACC title game.

Plus, quarterback Cam Ward is the real deal.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Cal, at Louisville, vs. Florida State, at Syracuse

Tennessee Volunteers (-250)

There's a ninth team now in the top tier, and it's the Tennessee Volunteers.

In the first edition, I wrote about how the Vols had plenty of value to make it the CFP at +100, and that number has shot up after a dominant victory in Norman. A 10-2 finish would likely be enough given the strength of the SEC.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Alabama, @Georgia

Tier 2: On the Cusp of the CFP (6)

This group is reserved for teams that have shown promise and have a pathway in front of them to make their way into the 12-team pack.

They’re far from a certainty to make the bracket, but the road is there based on how they perform in swing games later in the season.

Missouri Tigers (+125)

Missouri got one of the more favorable schedule draws in the SEC, which can be a blessing and a curse. The Tigers will have easier opponents to maneuver but also fewer chances at signature wins.

Hold for now after a somewhat shaky start that included needing overtime to escape Vandy at home last week.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Texas A&M, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma

Utah Utes (+125)

The Utes are now in control in the Big 12 after a massive road victory over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.

They did it without quarterback Cam Rising, who continues to be week-to-week with a hand injury. Get him back, and the Utes are the clear frontrunner in the Big 12.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. TCU, at Arizona State, vs. Iowa State, at UCF

USC Trojans (+200)

USC likely would have been bumped up to the Driver's Seat had it been able to hang on in Ann Arbor.

Unfortunately for the Trojans, they couldn't get one more stop against Michigan and now have much less margin for error the rest of the way.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Penn State, vs. Nebraska, vs. Notre Dame

Iowa State Cyclones (+450)

The Cyclones escaped in Iowa City in Week 2 and became dangerous as a result. Matt Campbell's teams always play good defense, but quarterback Rocco Becht is starting to take this offense to the next level.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. UCF, vs. Texas Tech, at Utah, vs. Kansas State

UCF Knights (+550)

The comeback win at TCU ignited the Knights' hopes, but they now have to handle business against Colorado before a tricky road game in Gainesville.

It's interesting to note that UCF meets Utah the final day of the regular season in the Bounce House.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Florida, at Iowa State, vs. BYU, vs. Utah

Louisville Cardinals (+350)

This week's matchup in South Bend will go a long way in telling us how real the Cardinals are. Louisville has passed every test thus far with flying colors, but it now steps up a weight class.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Notre Dame, vs. SMU, vs. Miami, at Clemson

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Tier 3: Down But Not Out (7)

Each team in this tier is currently on the outside looking in after setbacks in the opening portion of the season. There's still an opportunity to play their way back into the mix but minimal margin for error moving forward.

Clemson Tigers (+200)

Ever since the opening loss to Georgia, the Tigers offense has looked like a juggernaut. They'll be favored in every ACC game for the rest of the regular season.

While they ultimately control their destiny for a top-four seed, the Hurricanes and others stand in their path.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Florida State, vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, vs. South Carolina

LSU Tigers (+350)

The Bayou Bengals found a way to come back and win at South Carolina, which could end up being a big-time win with how the Gamecocks have looked.

The problem is Harold Perkins went down with a knee injury against UCLA and is out for the year. An already suspect defense could not afford to lose its best player. I don't see LSU as a playoff team.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Oklahoma

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+200)

Everybody wrote the Irish off after the Northern Illinois debacle, but Marcus Freeman's team appears to be back chugging along.

The Fighting Irish have a chance for a solid win over Louisville this week, followed by plenty of games in which ND will be a comfortable favorite before the showdown at USC to end the year.

That could become a play-in game with the loser going home.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Louisville, vs. Florida State, at USC

Texas A&M Aggies (+400)

The Aggies have won three in a row following their opening loss to Notre Dame and are flying way under the radar in a loaded SEC.

Arkansas will be a real test on Saturday at Jerry World, but if A&M can win that, things get interesting. It's worth noting that Missouri, LSU and Texas all have to go to Kyle Field.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Missouri, vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. Texas

Michigan Wolverines (+650)

The Wolverines out-toughed USC, and as a result, remain on this page for now. I'm not a believer in this team, though, as it just doesn't have a capable passer on the roster.

Oregon and Ohio State should both outscore Michigan, and there are plenty of other difficult games to boot.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Oregon, at Indiana, at Ohio State

Iowa Hawkeyes (+900)

The Hawkeyes lost in the final seconds to in-state rival Iowa State and left themselves with minimal breathing room entering Big Ten play.

The good news is they passed their first Big Ten test, handling Minnesota on the road. They could very well be favored in every remaining game aside from a trip to Columbus.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Ohio State, at Michigan State, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Nebraska

Kansas State Wildcats (+450)

Weird things happen in Provo after dark.

The Wildcats learned that firsthand and now have their backs against the wall. There's no guarantee a 7-2 conference record catapults them into the Big 12 Championship game, which essentially makes Saturday's tilt with Oklahoma State a must-win.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Oklahoma State, at Colorado, at Iowa State

Tier 4: College Football Playoff Darkhorses (19)

With still so much season ahead of us, there are plenty of power conference teams still in the fold with optimism they could go on a special run to get into the playoff mix.

Here’s a list of those teams ranked by my confidence level on their respective chances.

I tended to favor teams in the Big 12 and ACC, as the opportunity to take the auto bid is far more feasible in those two leagues. An additional 19 are still alive here.

Tier 5: Group of Five CFP Hopefuls (22)

A reminder that the highest-ranked Group of Five champ gets an auto-bid to the playoff and a chance to advance to the quarters.

This list will update constantly throughout the year, but here are my current power rankings of the teams most likely to nab that bid. I’ve got 22 G5 teams still alive through four weeks.

Tier 6: Hanging By a Thread (17)

Either due to early losses or poor performance on the field, each team here is on life support. It’s difficult to imagine any road toward playoff contention, but there aren't quite enough data points to fully eliminate them.

• Arizona State
• Arkansas
• Baylor
• Cincinnati
• Colorado
• Georgia Tech
• Florida
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• Michigan State
• Oregon State
• SMU
• Stanford
• TCU
• Virginia
• Virginia Tech
• West Virginia

Tier 7: Eliminated From the College Football Playoff (54)

Thirty-four teams were eliminated in the first edition, and now another 20 have joined the fold.

None of these teams have any sort of a path into the bracket and are now just fighting to make the most of their season. Through four weeks, 54 schools have been eliminated and 80 teams remain.

Latest 20 Going Home: Arkansas State, Auburn, Ball State, Colorado State, East Carolina, Houston, Kansas, Florida State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Miami (OH), Minnesota, Mississippi State, NC State, Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, UL Monroe, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

Previously Eliminated: Air Force, Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State, Hawaii, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State (ineligible as it transitions to FBS), Kent State, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Ohio, Old Dominion, Rice, Sam Houston, San Diego State, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Temple, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, Western Michigan, Wyoming.

Premium Picks & Betting Analysis!

Best bets for every game

Massive player prop edges

Expert article analysis

TAKE ADVANTAGE NOW