Welcome to an annual tradition at Action Network: how to bet before the College Football Playoff rankings are released.
Oddsmakers are happy to post national title futures on Sundays, leaving 48 hours for investors to find value. Once the College Football Playoff selection committee makes a determination of the ranking, oddsmakers are quick to shift futures.
To determine where value is in the national championship market, we must follow the “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff.”
These rules serve as a roadmap to the national semifinal, detecting value in futures before the committee releases the rankings.
The first set of rankings were released nine seasons ago, giving consumers 36 different data points for entry into the playoff.
The goal of this column is to find the best betting value before each Tuesday checkpoint when the committee updates its rankings.
Here's a look at the Four Commandments to apply when handicapping the ever-changing selection committee.
1
CFP Commandment No. 1
“An undefeated Power 5 conference champion is automatically in.”
Note: We have never had five undefeated Power Five champions, and that will continue with Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas. Florida State, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia are the only Power 5 teams that remain undefeated.
2
CFP Commandment No. 2
“A one-loss Power 5 conference champion is automatically in… barring a Purdue-esque event.”
Note: Ohio State was left out of the 2018 College Football Playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion.
Alabama was selected as an at-large after taking its first loss in the SEC Championship game, while the Buckeyes couldn’t recover from a 49-20 defeat at the hands of a 6-6 Purdue team.
Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Louisville, Ole Miss and Missouri currently meet this criteria. None of these teams have suffered an embarrassing loss, as even the Sooners lost to a bowl team in Kansas.
Ole Miss, Alabama, Penn State and Oregon all hold losses to teams with a top-15 rank.
3
CFP Commandment No. 3
“A two-loss Power 5 conference champion cannot jump a one-loss team into the Playoff.”
Note: This precedent was set when Ohio State missed the CFP in 2017 as the Big Ten champion with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
The one two-loss team with a chance of cracking the playoff for the first time ever is LSU. Both losses have come to teams expected to rank in the top 10 in Ole Miss and Florida State.
Quality victories over Alabama and Georgia would give LSU the best two-loss resume in College Football Playoff history.
4
CFP Commandment No. 4
“A two-loss Power 5 team trumps an undefeated Group of Five team with the right strength of record and head-to-head victories.”
Note: UCF finished 2018 undefeated but was passed by two-loss Michigan and Georgia. Cincinnati continued to fall in the 2020 rankings, as three-loss Florida and two-loss Oklahoma passed the Bearcats.
In 2021, Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff because of a head-to-head victory over No. 5 Notre Dame, while No. 6 Ohio State was not selected as a two-loss team after head-to-head losses against No. 2 Michigan and No. 14 Oregon.
Tulane is expected to rank in the Top 25 as a one-loss team, but that loss to Ole Miss limits its path as far as the Rebels can go.
Before looking at the teams in the brackets, here's a list of the College Football Playoff contenders and their chances of sweeping the remaining schedule.
Bracket 1: SEC Championship
Contenders: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri
The path for Ole Miss to attend the SEC Championship game is murky at best.
Alabama must suffer a loss to LSU in Week 10, creating a scenario of a three-way tie at the top. The divisional tie-breaker rules would come into play, with a possible scenario looking at their record against SEC East opponents.
The Rebels are at a disadvantage with a cross-divisional win over Vanderbilt as the Georgia game looms in Week 11.
Alabama will be the favorite over LSU in Week 10, giving the Tide an advantage in facing Georgia for the SEC Championship. Head coach Nick Saban has a 72% chance to win out, including the conference title game, giving value to Bama at 14-1 or better.
Georgia has one of the toughest remaining paths with Missouri, Tennessee and Ole Miss on the schedule. The Bulldogs' undefeated schedule gives Georgia a mulligan, only needing to stave off a Missouri team with one of the toughest final schedules in the nation.
Bracket 2: Big Ten East
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Similar to the SEC West, the Big Ten East may have a tiebreaker scenario for the three division leaders. Penn State has already suffered a loss to Ohio State and has the weakest case in tiebreaker format with the record of Big Ten West teams faced.
This playoff spot will come down to “The Game.”
Michigan projects as a field goal favorite over Ohio State at the neutral site of Lucas Oil Stadium. Thanks to a weak conference title game, both Ohio State and Michigan project as the most likely teams to sweep the remainder of the schedule.
Ohio State would need better than +1000 odds to win the title with small hedge spots against Michigan and in the semifinal.
Ultimately, no team from the Big Ten has value on their odds to win the national title.
Bracket 3: Pac-12 Champion
Contenders: Washington, Oregon
For the first time since 2016, the Pac-12 Championship game has a chance to send a team to the playoff. Washington and Oregon faced off earlier this season, as the Ducks suffered a field goal loss against the Huskies.
Oregon was impressive in a road victory over Utah, creating a strong resume for the committee’s consideration.
The name of the game is easy for Washington and Oregon: win out in the regular season and give the committee a rematch in Las Vegas.
Oregon has the simplest path to Las Vegas, with three of its final four games at home. Both USC and Oregon State will be bullet point wins on the resume, as both must travel to Autzen Stadium.
Arizona State has been pesky of late after ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham served as offensive coordinator for the Ducks last season.
The path is more clouded for Washington, which heads on the road to USC and Oregon State while hosting Utah and Washington State.
The Huskies have struggled in two previous wins over Stanford and Arizona State, but they do have a mulligan to spare with a clean record in Week 10.
Oregon at 30-1 was the buy in last week's column, but the number has been split in half after a win in Salt Lake City.
The Ducks have value at 20-1 to win the national title, making the 14-1 in the market a pass. Washington is also 14-1 but may present a better entry point if it takes a loss with a tough remaining schedule.
ACC or Big 12 Champion
Contenders: Florida State, Louisville, Texas, Oklahoma
There are a number of possible scenarios for conference champions not mentioned and the at-large status of one-loss teams expecting to hover around the top four of the rankings.
Our “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff” must be followed in determining the betting value on the following teams.
Florida State Wins ACC
There's no doubt that a Florida State sweep of the schedule gets the Seminoles in the playoff. The remaining schedule is the kindest of all contenders with Pitt, Miami and Florida remaining.
The Seminoles have a mulligan with an undefeated record, as a loss ahead of the playoff selection date will not deter the committee.
Florida State owns the second-best strength of record in the nation. Assuming the Noles don't suffer a multiple-possession loss this season, +600 is the buying point for Florida State.
Texas or Oklahoma Wins Big 12
Texas has one of the best wins in all of college football after beating a contending Alabama team in Tuscaloosa.
The Longhorns also have a loss to the Sooners, directly tying Texas futures to Oklahoma.
Both teams are in a fierce fight for a Big 12 Championship berth in Arlington, as Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Kansas State all hold a single loss in conference play.
The cannibalization that generally comes with the Pac-12 is now firmly entrenched in the Big 12, giving no value to Oklahoma or Texas in the current futures market.
Louisville Wins ACC
Louisville serves as the primary candidate to climb the ladder of chaos.
The Cardinals would have one of the softest strength-of-schedule ranks of any playoff team in history, even with wins over Florida State and Notre Dame.
The chances are highly unlikely, as Florida State projects as an 11-point favorite over Louisville.
In the scenario that Jeff Brohm does win the ACC in his first season as Louisville's head coach, a one-loss Oklahoma or Texas that wins the conference would supersede the Cardinals.
If you like chaos, Louisville is the team for the college football masochist.
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