Matchup Matrix

The primary concern for the Tigers is the health of James Skalski for pass defense purposes. Mac Jones is the best deep passer in the nation and improves in adjusted completion percentage with pressure.

The Tigers will struggle against the Tide skill position players downfield with a rank outside the top 75 in defensive pass explosiveness.

The bread and butter of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne has been standard downs Success Rate and explosiveness. The Alabama defense should be prepared with a rank of 13th in defensive standard downs Success Rate. The Crimson Tide defense will get enough stops against the Tigers to cover any spread up to a touchdown.

Although the Crimson Tide defense has posted some of the program’s highest grades in years, a lack of pass rush on Justin Fields could turn this game into a high-scoring affair.

The Buckeyes are elite in Line Yards on both sides of the ball, translating to Master Teague and Fields gaining chunk yardage on the ground. Alabama should have no issues of its own against a Buckeye secondary that has struggled in a limited number of snaps.

Nick Saban will be sure to study the Indiana game plan and execute against an Ohio State defensive unit that is outside the top 50 in tackling and pass explosiveness. Ohio State can keep this game close, but the difference in Defensive Finishing Drives between the two teams is what gets Alabama to the window.

There have been mixed results for the Notre Dame pass defense most of the season. The Irish shut out the explosive passing attack of North Carolina but allowed 20 passes to exceed 15 yards or more against Clemson and Boston College.

Alabama running back Najee Harris gets his toughest matchup against the Notre Dame defense that has dominated trench play. The biggest handicap in the game is whether or not Ian Book will put enough points on the board to hang with Alabama.

That answer is more than likely going to be “no” with the Tide’s rank in the top 25 in Havoc and defending pass explosiveness. Notre Dame is a run-first team, but if the Irish fail to see standard downs success, this game could be a blowout by Alabama.

The market will steam the total into the high 70s in a game in which there could be a ton of points on both sides of the ball.

The top-five passing attack of Kyle Trask will go against an improved Crimson Tide back seven, but Alabama has not faced a tight end like Kyle Pitts. One other note is offenses that run the wheel route can find success, as Georgia had its highest Offensive Success Rate against Alabama by finding its running backs on passing plays.

Kadarius Toney had 18 avoided tackles this season and will keep the Gators in this game. Alabama may not cover this track meet, but it certainly will not be for a lack of gaining available yards. The Gators poor scores in tackling, pass coverage and Defensive Finishing Drives is the difference in a game that should rival an SEC basketball score.

The biggest question of the game whether or not Texas A&M has improved enough since getting drummed for 52 points in Bryant-Denny back on Oct. 3.

The Aggies defense allowed the Crimson Tide to gain 60% of available yards and post a 67% Success Rate in standard downs. That opened up downfield passing where Mac Jones connected on nine throws over 20 yards.

Texas A&M finished the season ranked outside the top 50 in defending pass explosiveness. More importantly, the offense has not had the ability to blow out anyone except a South Carolina team that has an interim head coach. Every Texas A&M victory has been within two possessions, indicating that covering against Alabama is unlikely.

The primary concern for the Tigers is the health of James Skalski for pass defense purposes. Mac Jones is the best deep passer in the nation and improves in adjusted completion percentage with pressure.

The Tigers will struggle against the Tide skill position players downfield with a rank outside the top 75 in defensive pass explosiveness.

The bread and butter of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne has been standard downs Success Rate and explosiveness. The Alabama defense should be prepared with a rank of 13th in defensive standard downs Success Rate. The Crimson Tide defense will get enough stops against the Tigers to cover any spread up to a touchdown.

There is no doubt Ryan Day will be looking for revenge after the Buckeyes were knocked out of the semifinals by the Tigers in last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

The key to this game is the Clemson defensive line getting pressure on Justin Fields. If the Buckeyes quarterback is throwing under two seconds per pass or allowed to scramble outside of the pocket, this could be a long game for the Tigers defense.

Master Teague III has become more elusive as the season goes on with 18 avoided tackles and an average just shy of four yards after contact. On the other side of the ball, expect Clemson to be in full aerial attack, as the Buckeyes are one of the best units in stopping the rush.

Safety Shaun Wade posted his highest coverage grades at the end of the regular season against Michigan State and Indiana. Look for Ohio State to do enough on defense to cash an underdog ticket in an outright victory.

Plenty of analysts will be surprised on the market spread in a rematch in which Clemson lost the first iteration.

It’s expected that Clemson will be a double digit favorite after losing in South Bend. The second chapter in this game will include captains from both sides of the ball in quarterback Trevor Lawrence and James Skalski. Remember that heading into the first game, Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees had held back a passing attack all season. The Irish beat the Tigers with 41 passing attempts, topping the national average in Passing Success Rate by 13%.

That playbook is now on film and will be digested by defensive coordinator Brett Venables. The return of Skalski will curtail the previous Notre Dame success through the air, while Lawrence looks to expose the poor explosiveness ranks of the Irish defense.

Two high-powered offenses will take knockout blows against each other in this one.

While both offenses prefer the pass, both defenses have issues against the deep ball, ranking outside the top 80 in defensive pass explosiveness. Both offenses rank top-25 in Finishing Drives, which can only lead bettors to an over ticket in this contest.

The advantages Clemson has on defense may be negated by a top-five special teams rank by Florida. Defensive ranks in tackling and pass coverage may keep the Gators from winning the game outright, but they are certainly a live underdog.

This will be the third matchup between these teams in the past 27 months. Dabo Swinney is no stranger to Jimbo Fisher after previous head-to-heads between Clemson and Florida State.

The Aggies covered both games but never really had a serious bid to upset in the 2019 version with a late score to cover 17.5.

The Tigers may have no success in running the ball against an Aggies rush defense that ranks in the top 30 in Success Rate and explosiveness. If Texas A&M finds any kind of success against the Clemson air attack, there’s a chance for an Aggies upset.

Texas A&M executes its offense at a pace that ranks 119th in seconds per play, which may provide the best weapon in long efficiency drives keeping Trevor Lawrence off the field. The difference in this game is the Aggies’ offensive rank outside of the top 50 in Finishing Drives. Leaving the red zone with a field goal or no points may be good for a cover but would ultimately allow Clemson to advance.

Although the Crimson Tide defense has posted some of the program’s highest grades in years, a lack of pass rush on Justin Fields could turn this game into a high-scoring affair.

The Buckeyes are elite in Line Yards on both sides of the ball, translating to Master Teague and Fields gaining chunk yardage on the ground. Alabama should have no issues of its own against a Buckeye secondary that has struggled in a limited number of snaps.

Nick Saban will be sure to study the Indiana game plan and execute against an Ohio State defensive unit that is outside the top 50 in tackling and pass explosiveness. Ohio State can keep this game close, but the difference in Defensive Finishing Drives between the two teams is what gets Alabama to the window.

There is no doubt Ryan Day will be looking for revenge after the Buckeyes were knocked out of the semifinals by the Tigers in last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

The key to this game is the Clemson defensive line getting pressure on Justin Fields. If the Buckeyes quarterback is throwing under two seconds per pass or allowed to scramble outside of the pocket, this could be a long game for the Tigers defense.

Master Teague III has become more elusive as the season goes on with 18 avoided tackles and an average just shy of four yards after contact. On the other side of the ball, expect Clemson to be in full aerial attack, as the Buckeyes are one of the best units in stopping the rush.

Safety Shaun Wade posted his highest coverage grades at the end of the regular season against Michigan State and Indiana. Look for Ohio State to do enough on defense to cash an underdog ticket in an outright victory.

Notre Dame’s ability to apply pressure on the quarterback will be on full display against the Buckeyes offensive line.

Justin Fields will face an Irish defense that is top-20 against the pass and top-30 in Sack Rate. Expect Master Teague III to be limited with most of the Buckeyes’ scoring coming on the explosive play. Meanwhile, Ian Book will find open receivers against the Ohio State back seven.

The handicap comes in whether or not Tommy Rees goes to the pass in standard downs, an element that was a huge success against Clemson.

These two teams have a pace that ranks outside the top 100, and with a heavy lean to the rush, the under would be the bet. Notre Dame’s defense will do enough to get Fields out of the pocket. If the Irish can prevent the big pass, then double-digit points on the underdog will cash.

There is a case to be made for the under in this game.

Ohio State has been 62% rush at a pace of 104th in seconds per play. The best way to keep the Gators offense off the scoreboard is long, sustainable drives against a vulnerable Florida defense.

The Buckeyes have the clear advantage offensively in the trench and through the air. A rank in the top 25 for Offensive Finishing Drives should have the Buckeyes collecting more touchdowns than field goals.

The Gators will move the ball through the air, as Ohio State has struggled to stop passing attacks. Indiana created a blueprint for Florida, as the Hoosiers threw the ball over 50 times and posted five explosive drives.

If Ohio State turns the game into a high-scoring affair, the Buckeyes may lose any defensive advantage they have when fatigue sets in the second half. Ohio State should win the game based on offensive rushing ranks, but look for Florida to keep this within one score.

Texas A&M would be in a danger zone with this matchup.

The Mike Elko 4-2-5 is not built for passing attacks with a high Success Rate. The Aggies do not generate enough pass rush to get Justin Fields out of the pocket, but a top-10 rank offensively for Ohio State in Line yards and Stuff Rate may keep the Aggies defense honest in blitz attempts. When the Buckeyes find success moving the ball on the ground, Fields will soon hit as many play action and screen passing attempts versus an Aggies defense that is outside the top 50 against pass explosiveness.

The Texas A&M offense may not have enough firepower or pace against the Buckeyes defense. Ohio State ranks in the top 10 defensively in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which should get Kellen Mond in passing downs early. Ohio State will do enough on both sides of the ball to cover two scores.

There have been mixed results for the Notre Dame pass defense most of the season. The Irish shut out the explosive passing attack of North Carolina but allowed 20 passes to exceed 15 yards or more against Clemson and Boston College.

Alabama running back Najee Harris gets his toughest matchup against the Notre Dame defense that has dominated trench play. The biggest handicap in the game is whether or not Ian Book will put enough points on the board to hang with Alabama.

That answer is more than likely going to be “no” with the Tide’s rank in the top 25 in Havoc and defending pass explosiveness. Notre Dame is a run-first team, but if the Irish fail to see standard downs success, this game could be a blowout by Alabama.

Plenty of analysts will be surprised on the market spread in a rematch in which Clemson lost the first iteration.

It’s expected that Clemson will be a double digit favorite after losing in South Bend. The second chapter in this game will include captains from both sides of the ball in quarterback Trevor Lawrence and James Skalski. Remember that heading into the first game, Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees had held back a passing attack all season. The Irish beat the Tigers with 41 passing attempts, topping the national average in Passing Success Rate by 13%.

That playbook is now on film and will be digested by defensive coordinator Brett Venables. The return of Skalski will curtail the previous Notre Dame success through the air, while Lawrence looks to expose the poor explosiveness ranks of the Irish defense.

Notre Dame’s ability to apply pressure on the quarterback will be on full display against the Buckeyes offensive line.

Justin Fields will face an Irish defense that is top-20 against the pass and top-30 in Sack Rate. Expect Master Teague III to be limited with most of the Buckeyes’ scoring coming on the explosive play. Meanwhile, Ian Book will find open receivers against the Ohio State back seven.

The handicap comes in whether or not Tommy Rees goes to the pass in standard downs, an element that was a huge success against Clemson.

These two teams have a pace that ranks outside the top 100, and with a heavy lean to the rush, the under would be the bet. Notre Dame’s defense will do enough to get Fields out of the pocket. If the Irish can prevent the big pass, then double-digit points on the underdog will cash.

This matchup features a large contrast in offensive tendencies.

Notre Dame will methodically move the ball via the rush against a Gators front seven that has been incapable of stopping any offense on the ground. Florida’s ranks in tacking and Defensive Rushing Success Rate could forecast Notre Dame into nine-minute double-digit play drives.

Those drives would achieve the goal of keeping Kyle Trask and the Florida offense on the sidelines. Notre Dame has one of the highest coverage ranks in the nation and will be the difference as the Irish advance.

Although these teams have not played head-to-head, both Texas A&M and Notre Dame know each other well. Defensive coordinator Mike Elko was brought to South Bend after a tumultuous season in 2016.

Elko since departed to take the same role with Texas A&M, as assistant coach Clark Lea was promoted to defensive coordinator for Notre Dame. Elko served as Lea’s mentor, and that reflects in the defensive numbers at Notre Dame.

These two offenses lean on the rush in standard downs and rank outside the top 100 in tempo.

Texas A&M will keep this game within a possession and challenge to win as an outright underdog, but the Irish’s defensive rank in Finishing Drives should be the clinching factor. Notre Dame has clear advantages in rushing the ball, per matchups in Line Yards and Power Success Rate. Look for an under ticket and be cautious of any Notre Dame spread north of a touchdown.

The market will steam the total into the high 70s in a game in which there could be a ton of points on both sides of the ball.

The top-five passing attack of Kyle Trask will go against an improved Crimson Tide back seven, but Alabama has not faced a tight end like Kyle Pitts. One other note is offenses that run the wheel route can find success, as Georgia had its highest Offensive Success Rate against Alabama by finding its running backs on passing plays.

Kadarius Toney had 18 avoided tackles this season and will keep the Gators in this game. Alabama may not cover this track meet, but it certainly will not be for a lack of gaining available yards. The Gators poor scores in tackling, pass coverage and Defensive Finishing Drives is the difference in a game that should rival an SEC basketball score.

Two high-powered offenses will take knockout blows against each other in this one.

While both offenses prefer the pass, both defenses have issues against the deep ball, ranking outside the top 80 in defensive pass explosiveness. Both offenses rank top-25 in Finishing Drives, which can only lead bettors to an over ticket in this contest.

The advantages Clemson has on defense may be negated by a top-five special teams rank by Florida. Defensive ranks in tackling and pass coverage may keep the Gators from winning the game outright, but they are certainly a live underdog.

There is a case to be made for the under in this game.

Ohio State has been 62% rush at a pace of 104th in seconds per play. The best way to keep the Gators offense off the scoreboard is long, sustainable drives against a vulnerable Florida defense.

The Buckeyes have the clear advantage offensively in the trench and through the air. A rank in the top 25 for Offensive Finishing Drives should have the Buckeyes collecting more touchdowns than field goals.

The Gators will move the ball through the air, as Ohio State has struggled to stop passing attacks. Indiana created a blueprint for Florida, as the Hoosiers threw the ball over 50 times and posted five explosive drives.

If Ohio State turns the game into a high-scoring affair, the Buckeyes may lose any defensive advantage they have when fatigue sets in the second half. Ohio State should win the game based on offensive rushing ranks, but look for Florida to keep this within one score.

This matchup features a large contrast in offensive tendencies.

Notre Dame will methodically move the ball via the rush against a Gators front seven that has been incapable of stopping any offense on the ground. Florida’s ranks in tacking and Defensive Rushing Success Rate could forecast Notre Dame into nine-minute double-digit play drives.

Those drives would achieve the goal of keeping Kyle Trask and the Florida offense on the sidelines. Notre Dame has one of the highest coverage ranks in the nation and will be the difference as the Irish advance.

A rematch of these two teams after a Florida loss earlier in the season would take place at a neutral site. Dan Mullen was crisp in his post-game interview then about the home-field advantage for the Aggies, but a late fourth-quarter fumble by Malik Davis was the difference in the game. Texas A&M then secured victory on a 26-yard field goal when the clock struck zero.

The advanced stats show a much wider gap in the Aggies victory, as they gained 82% of available yards — much higher than the national average of 44%. Texas A&M destroyed the Gators defense in passing downs by posting a 62% Success Rate.

While most will point to the Aggies having home-field advantage, any number greater than a field goal requires a wager on Texas A&M.

The biggest question of the game whether or not Texas A&M has improved enough since getting drummed for 52 points in Bryant-Denny back on Oct. 3.

The Aggies defense allowed the Crimson Tide to gain 60% of available yards and post a 67% Success Rate in standard downs. That opened up downfield passing where Mac Jones connected on nine throws over 20 yards.

Texas A&M finished the season ranked outside the top 50 in defending pass explosiveness. More importantly, the offense has not had the ability to blow out anyone except a South Carolina team that has an interim head coach. Every Texas A&M victory has been within two possessions, indicating that covering against Alabama is unlikely.

This will be the third matchup between these teams in the past 27 months. Dabo Swinney is no stranger to Jimbo Fisher after previous head-to-heads between Clemson and Florida State.

The Aggies covered both games but never really had a serious bid to upset in the 2019 version with a late score to cover 17.5.

The Tigers may have no success in running the ball against an Aggies rush defense that ranks in the top 30 in Success Rate and explosiveness. If Texas A&M finds any kind of success against the Clemson air attack, there’s a chance for an Aggies upset.

Texas A&M executes its offense at a pace that ranks 119th in seconds per play, which may provide the best weapon in long efficiency drives keeping Trevor Lawrence off the field. The difference in this game is the Aggies’ offensive rank outside of the top 50 in Finishing Drives. Leaving the red zone with a field goal or no points may be good for a cover but would ultimately allow Clemson to advance.

Texas A&M would be in a danger zone with this matchup.

The Mike Elko 4-2-5 is not built for passing attacks with a high Success Rate. The Aggies do not generate enough pass rush to get Justin Fields out of the pocket, but a top-10 rank offensively for Ohio State in Line yards and Stuff Rate may keep the Aggies defense honest in blitz attempts. When the Buckeyes find success moving the ball on the ground, Fields will soon hit as many play action and screen passing attempts versus an Aggies defense that is outside the top 50 against pass explosiveness.

The Texas A&M offense may not have enough firepower or pace against the Buckeyes defense. Ohio State ranks in the top 10 defensively in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which should get Kellen Mond in passing downs early. Ohio State will do enough on both sides of the ball to cover two scores.

Although these teams have not played head-to-head, both Texas A&M and Notre Dame know each other well. Defensive coordinator Mike Elko was brought to South Bend after a tumultuous season in 2016.

Elko since departed to take the same role with Texas A&M, as assistant coach Clark Lea was promoted to defensive coordinator for Notre Dame. Elko served as Lea’s mentor, and that reflects in the defensive numbers at Notre Dame.

These two offenses lean on the rush in standard downs and rank outside the top 100 in tempo.

Texas A&M will keep this game within a possession and challenge to win as an outright underdog, but the Irish’s defensive rank in Finishing Drives should be the clinching factor. Notre Dame has clear advantages in rushing the ball, per matchups in Line Yards and Power Success Rate. Look for an under ticket and be cautious of any Notre Dame spread north of a touchdown.

A rematch of these two teams after a Florida loss earlier in the season would take place at a neutral site. Dan Mullen was crisp in his post-game interview then about the home-field advantage for the Aggies, but a late fourth-quarter fumble by Malik Davis was the difference in the game. Texas A&M then secured victory on a 26-yard field goal when the clock struck zero.

The advanced stats show a much wider gap in the Aggies victory, as they gained 82% of available yards — much higher than the national average of 44%. Texas A&M destroyed the Gators defense in passing downs by posting a 62% Success Rate.

While most will point to the Aggies having home-field advantage, any number greater than a field goal requires a wager on Texas A&M.