After grinding for weeks trying to figure out portal and opt-out activity for all the other bowls, I've never been more excited to cap the College Football Playoff semifinals.
I think we're in store for a treat.
Here's what I'm betting for Alabama vs. Michigan in the Rose Bowl and Texas vs. Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
ESPN BET has officially launched its new sportsbook. Register with Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a welcome offer
  |   |
Alabama vs. Michigan
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -125 |
I played Michigan on a cheap moneyline.
However, I admit this matchup was among the toughest handicaps of the College Football Playoff era.
Michigan played only two competent opponents all season in Penn State and Ohio State, but even those teams didn't feature elite quarterback play.
Plus, there are all of the questions surrounding the sign-stealing scandal. How much did that help the Wolverines? Nobody can say, and now Alabama may have an indirect leg up in that department after hiring former Michigan linebackers coach George Helow.
Regarding Alabama, this wasn't a vintage dominant season under head coach Nick Saban. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was even benched for a week during a lackluster effort at South Florida.
At the same time, the Tide barely pulled out several games against Arkansas (by three), Texas A&M (by six in a game they easily could have lost), Auburn (by three in miraculous fashion), and finally, Georgia by three in the SEC Championship.
Milroe undoubtedly improved as the season progressed, but he still struggles with accuracy and reading defenses in the intermediary parts of the field.
With a month to prepare, I'm confident the focus of the Michigan defense will be taking away Milroe's legs with spies and taking away the downfield passes he throws with unmatched precision. That will ultimately lead to one or two critical mistakes that I believe will decide the game's outcome.
Alabama's offense doesn't have the same elite skill position talent we have become accustomed to seeing. Plus, the offensive line, while improving, still has holes that Michigan can exploit.
When Michigan has the ball, the handicap is simple: can the Wolverines get a push at the point of attack and move the ball on the ground?
If yes, I believe they win.
If not, that'll force J.J. McCarthy to drop back in known passing situations where the Michigan tackles won't hold up in protection against the likes of Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell and Justin Eboigbe.
But I think the time off will do wonders for the Wolverines in that area.
They can get their offensive line in order after the loss of star guard Zak Zinter while also providing time for Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, and McCarthy to get fully healthy.
I expect Edwards to make a few splashy plays, especially in the passing game, with him potentially lining up in the slot where Alabama can be attacked. Michigan will also likely unleash McCarthy's legs in this one.
Still, I believe Michigan can ultimately get that push for Corum, which is the key to the game, as I just don't see McCarthy having enough time to drop back in known passing downs and don't think the Michigan wideouts can consistently get separation against Alabama's superb secondary.
I see cases for both sides of this game and wouldn't fault anybody for simply siding with Nick Saban with a month to prepare against Jim Harbaugh, who has lost six straight bowl games.
However, I went in the other direction since I believe Michigan should successfully run the ball against a Tide defense that ranks 58th in Line Yards, ultimately forcing Milroe into a game-changing mistake in a competitive game.
From a total perspective, I would lean under 45 or better in a game I expect to be played at a plodding pace, as Michigan plays slow and Alabama has played much slower in its bigger games this season.
Also, each team has an outstanding punter who can flip the field, which is conducive to an under.
I'll call it Michigan 23-20.
Bets to Watch: Michigan ML -120 · Under 45
| |
Texas vs. Washington
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
I like the under here.
These teams met in the Alamo Bowl last year in a game Washington won, 27-20. We can look back at that matchup to learn a few things about how this semifinal might play out, especially considering both quarterbacks, Michael Penix Jr. and Quinn Ewers, also started that game.
Texas, which generally runs a high frequency of quarters coverage anyway, used it at a very high rate in that game, putting extra emphasis on taking away explosive passing plays.
The Longhorns met that objective, holding Penix one completion on 10 throws 20-plus yards downfield.
The Huskies still prevailed with 445 yards of total offense due to success in the short passing game (Penix finished 11-for-11 on screens) and on the ground (28 carries for 158 yards).
I expect Texas to employ a similar game plan on Monday night. I don't think the Horns can trust their cornerbacks to play too much press-man coverage on the outside against Washington's dynamic trio of wide receivers, especially with a healthy Jalen McMillan back in the mix.
Even with the recent surge of running back Dillon Johnson, I don't think Washington can duplicate similar rushing success against a now-elite Texas run defense that ranks fifth nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed and sixth in Defensive Line Yards.
Nobody could line up and run the ball on the Longhorns this season. They not only feature an elite defensive front with T'Vondre Sweat, Barryn Sorrell, Byron Murphy II and Ethan Burke, but linebacker Jaylan Ford and all three cornerbacks also excel against the run.
Texas can contain Johnson without committing its safeties to the box, therefore still preventing explosive passing plays, where it ranks fifth nationally this year.
Still, I think Washington can move the ball with short, quick passes (look for plenty of crossers), but that will take time for an offense that doesn't operate at a fast pace — although we may see some tempo at times to try to wear down Texas' defensive front.
Plus, I expect the Texas defense to stand up in the red zone, where it becomes more difficult for the Washington offense to operate with a more condensed field, especially since I don't believe the Huskies find much success on the ground.
It also becomes easier to defend the middle — where Penix loves to throw the ball — when the field shrinks.
Consequently, I expect several drives to stall in the scoring area, with Washington settling for field goals.
Additionally, I envision Texas being able to generate pressure up the middle on obvious passing downs to throw Penix off his game, leading to a few key third-down stops.
Plus, if the run game isn't humming, the Washington play-action might not be as effective, which is where Penix has thrived all season. For reference, all nine of his interceptions have come on non-play-action throws.
Ultimately, I think the Texas defense can limit the explosive passing plays and get enough red-zone and third-and-long stops to hold this uber-efficient Washington offense to under 30 points. And when the Huskies do drive the field, they should eat up plenty of the clock, just like last season's bowl matchup.
So, what about when Texas has the ball?
Well, last year, Ewers threw for 369 yards on 47 attempts against Washington, but Texas couldn't run the ball (18 rushes for 51 yards) and mustered only 20 points.
I expect Ewers to have another productive day. However, the Horns likely struggle to create explosives against Washington's 4-2-5 defense, which focuses on taking away explosives, ranking 15th nationally in defensive explosiveness.
Also, hitting the deep shots through the air will prove even more difficult if star receiver Xavier Worthy isn't fully healthy.
The tremendous Texas offensive line has thrived in pass protection. Still, it hasn't been as productive in terms of run blocking, so I'm not sure Texas will consistently move the ball on the ground, especially after losing Brooks to injury.
Texas has the edge when it has the ball — as does Washington — but the Huskies defense enters the playoff undervalued.
It's a unit trending up late in the season with improved health. Unlike the Georgias and Alabamas of the world, Washington doesn't boast the same elite depth. Therefore, the drop-off to the replacement player is even more significant when suffering vital defensive injuries.
With Tuli Letuligasenoa, Kamren Fabiculanan and Asa Turner now all back in the mix, Washington's defense is as healthy as it's been all season. It may also add a wild card in edge rusher Zach Durfee, who will make his season debut after recently gaining eligibility.
He has apparently flashed all season in practice and could potentially make a few key plays as a pass-rusher on obvious passing downs.
Texas will get its yards, but it has struggled in the red zone because it has struggled to run the rock. Therefore, I think it's a similar story to when Washington has the ball. Expect long, methodical drives that eat up the clock with a few key stops in the red zone.
What do you want with two dynamic offenses in an under with a high total? A lack of explosive plays and stops in the red zone with a slower pace.
I think we have all three ingredients in this matchup.
For what it's worth, I split some of my bet with the first-half under 31.5 since the Texas offense has had streaks of absolute explosion and then gone dormant.
From a side perspective, I think the price is right in a game I project a little over a field goal.
I'll call it Texas 31-28.
Bet to Watch: Under 63.5 · 1H Under 31.5
