Let the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff kick off!
Tonight, we have ourselves a battle of midwest powerhouses where the Indiana Hoosiers (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) travel three hours north to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1).
No one expected the Hoosiers to be here, and Curt Cignetti has taken this program to unchartered territory. Going 11-1 is no easy task, and in the Big Ten, it’s even more of a feat. But Indiana was never a powerhouse in football. It’s the best season in program history since 1945 when it went 9-0.
Notre Dame is in its first playoff since 2021, when it fell to Alabama in the first round. But it’s the first time we see a playoff game in South Bend, which should pose for a raucous environment.
Let’s dive into my College Football Playoff picks, predictions and same-game parlay for Indiana vs. Notre Dame.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 52 -110o / -110u | +222 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 52 -110o / -110u | -278 |
- Spread: Indiana +7 · Notre Dame -7
- Over/Under: 52 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Indiana +222 · Notre Dame -278
Indiana vs. Notre Dame Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Indiana +7
- Under 52
- Jeremiyah Love Anytime Touchdown
- Riley Leonard Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +1100
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Indiana +7
What has made Indiana so efficient is its defensive ability and I think it can pose some problems for Notre Dame. All season, the Hoosiers were ranked 18th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 14th in PPA allowed.
Additionally, against the run, they’re elite at preventing explosiveness and are ranked 26th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Irish will run the ball a lot (more on that in the upcoming picks), so it’ll put Indiana to the test.
Who wins this game is a different story. I think the Irish are more talented, but they’ll need to get creative to maneuver around Indiana’s defense.
Either way, I see this being a close one.
Over/Under: Under 52
I’ll make this one short and sweet. This game can go one or two ways. We either get a ton of points on the board from both teams or a chess match.
I’m banking on the latter.
It’s tempting to pick the over, considering both programs were the second and third-highest scoring programs in the FBS. However, each was also in the top 10 in points allowed.
Given their propensity for defense and the weather factor, I’m leaning on a lower-scoring game to kick off the College Football Playoffs.
Player Prop: Jeremiyah Love Anytime Touchdown
Notre Dame fans’ hearts dropped when they saw Jeremiyah Love leave the third quarter of the season finale with an injury.
You can argue that the sophomore running back was Notre Dame’s MVP this season, averaging an FBS ninth-best 7.1 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns.
Because of the injury, I don’t think we’ll see the expected workload for Love since backup Jadarian Price is more than adequate to take the bulk. But in the case “The Price is Wrong,” the Irish have their stud back champing at the bit.
It’s going to be a cold day in South Bend, with forecasts for snow in the early morning and a high of 34 degrees.
We typically see a lower-scoring game when the weather outside is frightful, with more of an emphasis on the run. Odds also list Love as a -275 favorite to find the end zone in this battle.
We’ll be seeing a lot of runs, but I see Love adding to his team-leading total.
Player Prop: Riley Leonard Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
I’m honing in on quarterback Riley Leonard.
I usually hate picking quarterback rushing picks, given that sacks count against their rush yards total, but Leonard has proven that he’s among the elite in his position when running the ball.
The only time he’s rushed for less than 30 yards was in Week 2, so I’m anticipating an active game from Leonard on the ground.
Getting more than 52.5 rushing yards isn’t out of the question for Leonard, as he’s surpassed that mark five times this season.
Indiana typically has a stout defensive line and has held opposing quarterbacks under this rushing threshold all season. However, in its past two games, they’ve struggled to get to the quarterback.
You can also argue that the Hoosiers haven’t faced a dual-threat QB like Leonard either, so he can pose problems for this typically strong defense.
