College Football Playoff Picks, Parlay for Ohio State vs. Texas
- Will Howard 225+ Alt Passing Yards (-178)
- Quinn Ewers Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+106)
- Jeremiah Smith 80+ Alt Receiving Yards (-136) and Anytime Touchdown (-170)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Parlay Odds: +856 (FanDuel)
Along with Georgia, Ohio State had the shortest odds of winning the preseason national championship.
Finally, Ohio State is beginning to play up to its potential. The Buckeyes toasted Tennessee and Oregon, out-scoring the two 83-38 en route to the College Football Playoffs semi-finals.
The Buckeyes find themselves two wins away from their first national title in 10 years.
Texas jumped out to a 24-8 lead over Arizona State in the CFP quarterfinal, but it needed to rally for a 39-31 victory in double overtime.
In the Cotton Bowl, Texas will have the majority of the crowd on its side playing in Arlington. However, it finds itself in an unfamiliar position as an underdog.
These powerhouses have only met three times. Texas won two meetings, including 24-21 in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl.
An interesting quirk about this matchup is that these teams are set to kick off against each other next season on August 30. The winner will hold bragging rights in that matchup as it may be the reigning national champion.
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
College Football Playoff Odds for Ohio State vs. Texas
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -114 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -235 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -106 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +190 |
Ohio State Player Prop: Will Howard 225+ Passing Yards
Will Howard has thrown for 225 yards in four of his last six games.
He has thrown for 3,490 yards this season to go along with 32 touchdown passes, averaging 249 yards per game.
The fifth-year senior enters this game on a heater, as he threw for 311 and 319 yards in Ohio State's first two CFP games.
Howard also dropped 327 passing yards against Texas last year with Kansas State.
Of course, the Longhorns' secondary is vastly improved. But at the same time, Howard is playing with a far superior supporting cast, and I expect that skill group to show up and help the quarterback amass 225 aerial yards.
Texas Player Prop: Quinn Ewers Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Ohio State has made the playoffs for the second time in the last five years.
When it signed Quinn Ewers as the No. 1 recruit in the 2021 class, the expectation was that he would lead the Buckeyes to the CFP for many years.
Instead, Ewers returned to Texas and led the Longhorns to the CFP in consecutive seasons.
Now, Ewers has the nation's longest streak with 26 consecutive games with at least one passing touchdown. Ewers threw three touchdown passes against Arizona State, but his second was most important. On 4th and 13 in overtime, Ewers delivered a strike to Matthew Golden for a 28-yard touchdown to keep the Longhorns' season alive.
Entering this Cotton Bowl CFP Semifinal, Ewers has 29 touchdown passes. He has thrown two touchdown passes in nine of 13 games this season.
While Texas has a strong defense, it will need its offense to score to knock off Ohio State. I expect at least two of its touchdowns will be Ewers' pass.
Ohio State Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards and Anytime TD
In Ohio State's first two CFP games, I have backed Jeremiah Smith. He has 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in those games.
He has over 1,200 yards on the season to go along with 14 touchdown receptions.
Texas has one of the nation's best secondaries, led by Jim Thorpe Award Winner Jahdae Barron, who has five interceptions and 11 passes defensed this season.
However, if matched up one-on-one, I am going with Smith in that matchup, given his size and speed advantages over Barron.
Additionally, Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a good job moving Smith around and scheming him touches. Smith is just as dangerous racking YAC yardage as he is making contested catches downfield.
Smith leads Howard's deep group of pass catchers. He has had 80 yards in nine of 14 games and a touchdown in 11. Expect him to be featured early and often once again.
Ohio State Player Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
My biggest question with Ohio State this season has been their offensive line.
As a team, the Buckeyes are averaging five yards per carry this season. Likely day-two NFL Draft pick Quinshon Judkins has 924 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry this season. His backfield mate, TreVeyon Henderson, has just one more yard this season, but he has been far more efficient, averaging 7.3 yards per carry.
Henderson's YPC average has been boosted because he is the more explosive back of Ohio State's tandem. Henderson has at least one run of 20 yards in eight of Ohio State's 14 games this season.
So, even if Henderson is being bottled up at specific points by a Texas defense allowing 111.5 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry, one explosive run can put him back on track to clearing this number.
Additionally, Texas has allowed at least one running back to run for 50 yards in five of their last seven games. Most notably, Arizona State's Cameron Skattebo went for 143 rushing yards on 30 carries in the Peach Bowl.
Getting to 50 yards has not been an issue for Henderson this season. Despite sharing carries, Henderson has run for at least 54 yards in 12 games this season, going over 60 yards in 11.
Here, we need 50 yards. If Henderson gets 10 carries, I expect him to get there again.
