College Football Playoff Predictions, Picks for SMU vs. Penn State
- Penn State -8.5
- Under 53.5
- Tyler Warren Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
Parlay Odds: +475 (Caesars)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
We kicked off the College Football Playoffs last night in South Bend, and now we go to Happy Valley, where the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2, 8-1 B1G) host the SMU Mustangs (11-2, 8-0 ACC)
It was between SMU and Alabama for the final playoff spot, and the Ponies snuck in. They had an exceptional regular season and nearly completed a massive comeback in the ACC Champion against Clemson.
But they’ll face their toughest test this season on Saturday.
Penn State has been dominant all year. Still, like their opponents, the Nittany Lions fell in their conference championship match. It was a blow-for-blow battle with Oregon in Indianapolis, but ultimately, the Ducks prevailed.
Now it’s a matter of if the Lions can get back over the hump.
Let’s dive into our SMU vs. Penn State odds, picks and same-game parlay for Saturday, Dec. 21.
SMU vs. Penn State Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -335 |
- Spread: Penn State -8, SMU +8
- Over/Under: 52
- Moneyline: Penn State -335, SMU +260
Spread: Penn State -8.5
If there’s one thing that the Nittany Lions know, it’s cold weather, and the forecast calls for a chilly one in Happy Valley.
SMU is walking into the Lion’s Den unprepared.
The Mustangs haven’t played a game north of the Mason-Dixon line all season, and now they’re getting thrown into 29-degree weather with wind gusts up to 28 mph.
Additionally, Penn State loves to slow the game down, whereas SMU likes to play fast. Given that we’ll be in Beaver Stadium, I expect the Lions to control the pace and wear the Ponies down.
Over/Under: Under 53.5
Which plays perfectly into our next leg of this parlay.
SMU doesn’t bode well when opponents slow down the game. Its lone loss during the regular season was against BYU, partially because the Cougars slowed the Ponies down.
On the other hand, SMU also plays outstanding defense, ranking 12th in Standard Down Success Rate allowed and 10th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
Furthermore, Penn State unders have hit seven times out of 13 games, while SMU unders have hit five times out of 13.
So, while the Mustangs are prone to higher-scoring games, I expect Penn State to bring them down a level.
Penn State Player Prop: Tyler Warren Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
I'm running it back with the big man.
Tyler Warren has become one of my favorite players this season. Not only has the guy been a force all season, but he’s made me a wealthy man betting his props.
I backed him two weeks ago in the Big Ten Championship, and he converted. Why not do it again?
Given the abovementioned conditions, hitting this over won't be so easy. I also expect a lot of Penn State’s attack to be zeroed in on the run.
Still, I expect Warren to get his.
He’s the prototypical football guy. He’s hard-nosed, welcomes contact, is hard to take down, and is Drew Allar’s favorite target.
As mentioned, SMU is in unknown territory. It hasn’t played a cold-weather game all season, and I’m expecting Warren to feast on these Ponies.
