Notre Dame and Penn State will square off for the first time since 2007 with a historical head-to-head tied at 9-9 (with 1 tie). The first one to 10 will reach the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship.
Both teams have lingering health questions ahead of their Orange Bowl showdown in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
For Notre Dame, how healthy are running back Jeremiyah Love and defensive tackle Howard Cross? For Penn State, it's all about the health of star edge rusher Abdul Carter, who injured his shoulder in the victory over Boise State.
Reading the tea leaves, I expect him to suit up (although I still don't know for sure), but it remains to be seen how healthy he will be or will stay throughout the game.
College Football Playoff Odds for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -102 |
Carter's Importance for Penn State
It's hard to overstate the importance of Carter, who, at full strength, would be a major problem for Notre Dame left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who has allowed a sky-high 13% pressure rate through two playoff games.
Not only does Carter lead the Nittany Lions with 11 sacks and rank second nationally with 21 tackles for loss, but he also draws so much attention from opposing offenses, which frees up space for others. There would certainly be a significant drop-off to true freshman Max Granville, who would see increased snaps on third-down passing situations if Carter can't go.
With Carter at full strength, I can't see how this Notre Dame offense sustains success against a dominant Penn State defense that ranks sixth in EPA per Rush.
The Nittany Lions are a bit more vulnerable against the pass, but the Irish are very limited on the outside from a pass-catcher perspective. Keep in mind this Notre Dame team scored 14 of its 23 points in the span of a minute against Georgia thanks to a strip sack that caused a short field followed by a kick return touchdown.
And against Indiana, it was mainly held in check outside of a 98-yard touchdown run by Love. I'm just not sure Leonard and these receivers are fully capable of moving the ball through the air against a nationally elite defense.
Can Nittany Lions Contain Leonard's Legs?
Leonard will really have to use his legs here, but Penn State has done an excellent job against the quarterback run game this season — although it hasn't really faced any of the same caliber as Leonard in fairness.
The most mobile quarterback Penn State faced was West Virginia's Garrett Greene way back in Week 1. Greene finished with 10 carries for five yards (eight for 20 if you remove sacks).
Kevin Jennings of SMU also has some mobility but had eight carries for -25 yards (five for 11 if you remove sacks). Washington's Demond Williams and Ohio State's Will Howard were mainly kept in check as well.
If Carter is indeed a go, he can be effectively used as a spy at times on Leonard, which makes his status even more critical.
Penn State is also rock solid in the red zone (second nationally), so even when Notre Dame does move the ball into scoring territory, it will likely end up with more field goal attempts than celebrations in the end zone.
Fortunately for the Irish, kicker Mitch Jeter appears to now be fully healthy, which is a major boost for a team that couldn't buy a kick all season (13-for-24 prior to Jeter's 3-for-3 performance against Georgia — all from 40-plus).
Notre Dame's Defensive Game Plan
On the other side of the ball, I don't think things will be easy for the Penn State offense, either.
Expect Notre Dame to play plenty of Cover 1 with press man on the outside against an underwhelming group of Nittany Lions receivers. That will enable the excellent safety duo of Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler to help in the run game and assist in bracketing tight end Tyler Warren, which Ohio State did effectively with a similar scheme.
Defensive coordinator Al Golden is one of the best in the business, so I'm sure he dissected every part of that game film and will come in with a rock-solid game plan.
He will also send plenty of blitzes and use effective stunts to get guys in the backfield against a vulnerable Penn State offensive line that has struggled with picking up the blitz at times in order to fluster Drew Allar and disrupt the potent running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
With so much attention likely dedicated to stopping the run and containing Warren, how can Penn State move the ball?
In what should be a fascinating battle of coordinator wits, Andy Kotelnicki will have to scheme up his best stuff here and use plenty of misdirection to exploit an uber-aggressive ND defense.
But what Penn State will really need to do is hit explosives through the air against Notre Dame's man coverage on the outside, especially with the safeties likely keeping an extra eye on Warren and the Penn State backs.
Allar will have to hit some throws outside of the hash marks with some slot fades and go routes similar to what we saw USC do on a consistent basis when the Trojans moved up and down the field on the Irish in a December meeting out west.
Can his protection hold up and can his wide receivers step up? That will likely decide this game.
Who Steps Up for Penn State?
The obvious answer for who needs to step up is Harrison Wallace III, but I actually think it could be Omari Evans, who has really come on late in the season. The former high school quarterback is as fast as anybody on the team and has really started to find a role in the offense with a touchdown in each of his past two games against Oregon and Boise State.
After getting just one target in four games between Weeks 9-12, he has 17 over his past five contests and has seen his average routes run jump from 13.5 to north of 20. Over that span, he has caught nine passes for 177 yards, clearing his 20.5 yardage prop in four of those five games with at least 49 in three.
Plus, I don't expect Penn State to run away with this one, which would enable it to simply lean on its run game in a favorable game state, which we saw against SMU.
I expect Evans to get a few deep targets in this one with a very good shot of clearing 20.5 yards with just one reception. After all, he does average 19.8 yards per reception, which ranks in the top 30 nationally.
Hitting Evans on a deep shot or two may be the key to the game for Penn State. If you're looking to build a same-game parlay or looking for more of a longer shot, I don't hate Evans anytime TD.
College Football Playoff Prediction, Pick for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
From a side perspective, I like Penn State, which I project as a slight favorite in this game. The Nittany Lions will also have a few extra days of rest and prep, which certainly doesn't hurt.
However, with the line sitting at +2.5, I'm going to wait to see if a +3 pops before firing while also waiting on more intel on Carter.
In regards to the total, I actually still like the under and would play it down to 45. This should be a defensive battle with plenty of running between two offenses that don't move with rapid pace.
Expect the clock to be moving rapidly throughout. Not surprisingly, I also like the Notre Dame team total under 23.5.
Pick: Penn State +2.5 (Wait for +3) · Under 45 or Better
