College Football’s Final Four is here, which means books are offering a wide array of props and exotics to cater to your every whim.
Some of these markets aren’t worth a flyer, like Quinn Ewers to reach 350 yards through the air at a measly +800.
But the books have a few generous offerings, and I’ve selected one from the Orange Bowl and one from the Cotton Bowl to keep things spicy in the coming days.
It's worth noting that these wagers both sit at 4-1 or longer, so as always, please remember to bet responsibly.
Let's take a look at my College Football Playoff props and exotics for this week's CFP semifinal games.
College Football Playoff Props, Exotics
- Penn State & Notre Dame to Both Stay Under 20 Points
- Opening Drive Parlay: Ohio State Touchdown & Texas Punt
Penn State & Notre Dame Both Under 20 Points
+475 at bet365
The College Football Playoff, with the exception of the pulse-pounding overtime thriller played between Texas and Arizona State, has been a snoozefest. The average margin in the other seven CFP games has been 18 points.
But I have a feeling that we’re going to get a tight game down in Miami. Not necessarily an exciting game, but a tight one. Let me explain.
The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions are perfectly constructed to shut down the offenses they’ll be facing in the 305.
Notre Dame’s offense revolves around staying on schedule, running the football and sustaining drives.
Following an interception and a 98-yard rushing touchdown on their first two drives against Indiana, the Irish flipped into methodical mode. Their final seven drives against IU averaged over nine plays and ate up nearly five minutes per possession.
This same strategy was deployed to great effect against Georgia down in New Orleans. Notre Dame strung together at least eight plays on five separate drives, including three straight monster clock-killers late that bled over 15 minutes off the clock.
They’re able to accomplish these impressive feats of ball control by staying committed to running the football. Notice I didn’t say running it at an elite level.
The Irish are actually outside of the top 30 in Rushing Success Rate, but when they’re playing in a close game or with the lead, they don’t mind nickel-and-diming teams down the field.
This strategy, which has served them well for months, could hit some rough seas in South Florida.
Penn State ranks fourth in both Line Yards and tackles for loss while ranking eighth in run defense at 100.9 yards per game. The Nittany Lions just put Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty in a box (3.5 YPC), which gives me supreme confidence that Tom Allen’s defense can force Notre Dame — and specifically Riley Leonard — to beat them.
If that’s the case, I like under on Notre Dame’s team total.
But I’m not stopping there. On the flip side, I love what I’m seeing from Notre Dame’s defense. In fact, I think a strong argument can be made that the Irish have the best pass defense in America.
Al Golden’s unit sits first in Passing Success Rate allowed, second in coverage, sixth in big-play avoidance, and it's super stingy in the red zone.
Notre Dame and Penn State are both top-five in red-zone scoring percentage defense. Moving the ball will be one thing, but finishing in the end zone will be another.
The odds on this bet are generous according to my projections. I would have entertained it at +375, so anything above +450 is teeming with value.
Let’s just hope we avoid a dreaded non-offensive touchdown, which remains the obvious fly in the ointment for a bet like this one.
Opening Drive Parlay: Ohio State Touchdown & Texas Punt
+416 at FanDuel
Let’s keep this simple: the Buckeyes have flipped a switch offensively.
The offensive staff circled the wagons after the Michigan debacle, and they’ve dropped 83 points in two CFP games, scoring touchdowns on their opening drives against both Tennessee and Oregon.
I greatly respect Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, but when Ohio State has the football, it appears as though it has an obvious talent advantage at the skill positions — something Texas has not had to compete with much this season.
You can scheme, you can say all the right things about playing smart situational football, but at the end of the day, someone has to stop Jeremiah Smith. I don’t see that happening.
Clemson scored an opening touchdown against Texas in the first round down on the Forty Acres, as did Vanderbilt during the regular season, so I’m not asking for something outlandish to occur at the Cotton Bowl.
As for Texas’ opening drive, I’m looking for comps because the Longhorns feasted on weaker defenses this season, many of which were lightyears away from the quality Ohio State puts on the field.
The Buckeyes are beyond buttoned up in the secondary, and they create drive-killing sacks at the third-highest rate in college football. I still have questions about Quinn Ewers’ mobility given the high ankle sprain he sustained earlier this season.
I anticipate Jim Knowles heating him up early to test his mobility and pocket presence.
Last season in the CFP semis against Washington, Texas — and Ewers specifically — came out a bit rusty. Ewers failed to connect on his first four passes before settling into the game.
Against the Sun Devils, he was hot as a pistol, which is why I think we’re seeing “punt” going off at even money in this spot. When facing an elite defense, the quad market of FG-TD-Punt-Other usually lists “punt” at -150 or longer. But currently, it’s in the market at -105, and I contend that’s an overreaction to Ewers diming up a decidedly average Arizona State secondary.
I’m happy to take advantage of this price discrepancy and love the upside when it’s paired with an Ohio State statement drive in the first quarter.
