The debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff field deserves to be paired with some new betting angles this weekend.
Bettors are racing to the window to spice up this postseason spectacle with action — and lots of it.
So, I’ve created three separate exotics: one that spans all four first-round matchups, another that was engineered to fade a former Heisman hopeful and a final parlay that's predicting a life-changing night for the most underrated running back in college football.
Remember, these are long shots for a reason, so please bet responsibly.
Let's dive into my College Football Playoff props and exotics, including bets for Texas' Quinn Ewers, Tennessee's Dylan Sampson and a four-game double-result round robin.
Home Team Comeback Round Robin
Odds via DraftKings
This is a simple concept with extraordinary payout potential. I’m backing every underdog to lead at halftime and every favorite to rally for the win. The double-result plays on their own look like this:
- Indiana/Notre Dame (+700)
- SMU/Penn State (+650)
- Clemson/Texas (+700)
- Tennessee/Ohio State (+600)
By twos, this Round Robin requires six bets. By threes, it requires four bets.
For simplicity’s sake, let’s say you place a $1 Round Robin by twos. The whole ticket would cost you $6 and pay out in the following manner:
- IU/ND + Clemson/Texas = $63
- IU/ND + SMU/Penn State = $59
- SMU/Penn State + Clemson/Texas = $59
- IU/ND + Tennessee/Ohio State = $55
- Tennessee/Ohio State + Clemson/Texas = $55
- SMU/Penn State + Tennessee/Ohio State = $51.50
If you also wanted to roll with the $1 Round Robin by threes, it would cost you just $4, and here’s how it would look with payouts attached.
- IU/ND + Clemson/Texas + SMU/Penn State = $479
- IU/ND + Clemson/Texas + Tennessee/Ohio State = $447
- IU/ND + SMU/Penn State + Tennessee/Ohio State = $419
- Clemson/Texas + SMU/Penn State + Tennessee/Ohio State = $419
When you drill down into the first-half performances of the eight playoff teams squaring off in the first round, you’ll find that two underdogs actually have a better first-half track record than their hosts.
SMU sports a +9.7 scoring margin at the break this season to Penn State’s rather pedestrian +6.7. Tennessee edges out Ohio State’s average halftime advantage at +11.8 to +11.6.
If SMU leads at the break, I have supreme confidence in the Nittany Lions’ defensive staff to adjust because they’ve done that all season long. Not only did Penn State prevent a third-quarter touchdown this fall, but it allowed a minuscule 1.7 points in the third quarter throughout 2024.
Texas leads the nation in first-half scoring margin (+14.9), but Clemson has an interesting element to offer for its leg of the Double-Result Round Robin.
Clemson has repeatedly come unglued in the second half of games, allowing 13.9 points per game in the final 30 minutes (82nd).
It played Georgia close in the first half, entering the locker room down, 6-0, before the roof caved in. The Tigers also carried a 7-7 tie into the half against South Carolina in the Palmetto Bowl before melting down late in the fourth quarter.
They were also fortunate to escape with a win in the ACC Championship after being outscored, 24-7, in the final 29 minutes and change before freshman Nolan Hauser saved their season with a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer.
The final first-round matchup to dissect is Indiana and Notre Dame.
The Irish played three top-25 teams, per Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, and entered the locker room tied with two of them (Texas A&M and USC).
Indiana, meanwhile, consistently fired out of the starting blocks, scoring 20.2 points per game in the first half this fall (7th). Given the stage, how well Curt Cignetti has motivated his team and the chance for slow starts on both sides in frigid weather, I like IU to squeeze past the Irish in a low-scoring opening first half.
From there, I like the Notre Dame offense to regroup and play inspired season-half football as it has all season long. In fact, the Irish rank second nationally in second-half margin at +12.2.
Quinn Ewers Fade Parlay
Odds: +534 at FanDuel
- Under 263.5 Yards Passing (-114)
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+152)
- Quintrevion Wisner 2 Or More Touchdowns (+125)
In August, Ewers had the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman at 10-1.
He was coming off a successful season in which he threw for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdowns. He had beaten the “checkdown merchant” smear campaign that was making the rounds on message boards by improving his YPA from 7.4 in 2022 to a healthy 8.8 in 2023.
But ever since his dominant performance against Michigan in September (246 yards, 3 TDs) he hasn’t looked like a game-changing quarterback.
There are plenty of reasons why he’s regressed. Injuries for starters. He hasn’t been 100% since he suffered a high-ankle sprain when a hip-drop tackle brought him to the turf back in November.
Then there’s the Arch factor. Looking over his shoulder at the “Golden Boy” who seems to be universally beloved by his teammates and the fan base, is not a plus for Ewers.
Yes, the quarterback position is a cerebral one, but emotions can creep into a player’s overall performance. Knowing that Manning could not only relieve you but receive a standing ovation while doing it — well, that’s not great for Ewers’ ego.
The final explanation for his backslide this fall has been his performance against top competition. In October and November, he drew four ranked opponents. In those contests, he averaged 229 yards through the air with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7:5.
He was pulled against Georgia and watched as Manning took the glory on a fourth-and-1 touchdown run against Texas A&M. Had it not been for his performance against Georgia in the SEC Championship (27-of-46, 358 yards), his passing total would likely be sitting in the 230s and not the 260s.
In this game, he’ll be throwing into an above-average Clemson pass defense. The Tigers rank 23rd in Success Rate against the pass. They’ve blended a ranking of 36th in coverage with a top-50 grade in pass rush.
That last part is critical if Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. is ruled out or if he’s hobbling on a bad ankle. If Ewers' blindside is exposed, Clemson will heat him up repeatedly.
The way teams want to attack Clemson is in the trenches — by running straight at that defense. The Tigers sit outside the top 65 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
That’s why I’m tacking on a multi-touchdown performance out of Quintrevion Wisner.
After being sparingly used in September, Wisner has seized his opportunity of late. The sophomore back is averaging over 26 touches in the past four games. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has involved him heavily in the passing game, so a receiving touchdown is very much on the table for Wisner.
I foresee Sark attacking Clemson on the ground, potentially giving Manning goal-line snaps and a scenario in which Ewers could be pulled in this game.
For all of those reasons, even at a reduced price due to its correlated nature, I like this parlay anywhere north of 5-1.
Dylan Sampson Legendary Night
Odds: +1307 at FanDuel
- Tennessee 1H Moneyline (+220)
- Tennessee Moneyline (+215)
- Sampson 1H Touchdown (+150)
- Sampson 2+ Touchdowns (+350)
- Sampson 125+ Rushing (+210)
Of the four road 'dogs in the first round of the College Football Playoff, I like Tennessee’s chances of sparking the upset the most. And if the Orange and White pull off a stunner in Columbus, it will be because of running back Dylan Sampson.
Ashton Jeanty’s historic season out west was well-documented, and for good reason. Jeanty put a team on his back and carried it to the CFP while amassing insane stats.
The knock on Jeanty, of course, was his competition. After lighting up Oregon, Jeanty faced a collection of tin cans, including five outside the top 110 in run defense.
Sampson also put his team on his back despite being Tennessee’s marked man offensively. He racked up 1,485 yards on the ground and 22 rushing scores all while facing an eight-game SEC slate.
In the two games this season in which Tennessee entered as an underdog (Alabama, Georgia), Sampson was the first, second and third option for Josh Heupel’s Veer-and-Shoot offense.
Against Alabama, he carried it 26 times for 139 yards and a pair of rushing scores. The Volunteers won, 24-17. Against Georgia, he received 22 touches, converting those opportunities into 117 yards and a score. The Vols are going to sink or swim with Sampson, which is why I loved the upside of him carrying them to a victory.
Another reason I like this parlay is the Ohio State run defense. The Buckeyes rank 95th in Stuff Rate and 50th in Line Yards.
In Ryan Day’s two losses this season, Oregon and Michigan committed to the idea of punching Ohio State square in the mouth. The Ducks rushed for five yards per carry against Ohio State, and feature back Jordan James finished with a line of 23/115/1.
Michigan, while worlds less dynamic than Oregon on offense, stuck to the script and pounded away at Ohio State at the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines ran for 172 yards, controlled the clock and got their bell cow into the end zone, as Kalel Mullings ran 32 times for 116 yards and a score.
The blueprint is sitting right there for Heupel and his staff.
This play requires Tennessee to lead at half, but as I noted earlier in this column, the Vols have one of the best first-half scoring margins in the country.
If they take this thing wire-to-wire, thanks to a big night from Sampson, I would have settled for any number over 10-1. At 13-1, this is my favorite exotic on the board.
