College Football Best Bets Week 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7 p.m. ET | |
  | 9:30 p.m. ET | |
  | 10:15 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Have you been betting on college football all day?
Are you ready to bet on more college football?
Our experts are here with three more wagers to close out Week 12, including a moneyline underdog pick for Kansas vs BYU.
Read on for our college football Saturday night best bets and picks.
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Arizona State vs. Kansas State Best Bet & Pick
By Stuckey
Credit to Kenny Dillingham for getting the Sun Devils off to a 7-2 start after a disastrous injury-filled 2023 campaign. With that said, ASU has been one of the luckiest teams in the country to date.
Not only do the Sun Devils have a 5-1 record in one-possession games with a +7 season-long turnover margin, but they have gotten quite a few other breaks that don't even show up in the box score.
For starters, they benefited from playing a completely hampered Cam Rising in a game Utah still managed to outgain the Sun Devils but couldn't overcome the turnover differential and red-zone issues.
Also, just look at last week's win over UCF. The Knights finished with a 406-260 net yardage advantage, but missed two field goals, gave up a blocked punt for a touchdown and threw a mind-numbing interception in the final minute of the first half with under a minute to go at their own 1-yard line, which ASU returned for a second non-offensive touchdown.
Despite all of those self-inflicted blunders, UCF still had a chance to win late before ultimately falling, 35-31. The Sun Devils easily could have two or three more losses, in which case this line would probably be sitting above 10, which is where I project it.
Conversely, Kansas State comes into this game with the same record as Arizona State but has done so against a much more difficult schedule and without any of the good fortune.
The Wildcats lost, 38-9, at BYU in a game where they finished with a 367-241 net yardage edge but couldn't overcome giving up 28 points in the blink of an eye with the Cougars gaining just 56 total yards over that span thanks to multiple turnovers and two non-offensive touchdowns.
In Kansas State's most recent loss at Houston, it held the Cougars to just 232 total yards (+95 net) but blew a nine-point fourth-quarter lead after the Cougars scored two late touchdowns with just 65 combined yards across the pair of scoring drives.
The Wildcats also had to play Kansas after the Jayhawks really started to figure things out.
On the surface, this is just a great buy-low spot on the Wildcats, who should come out with their hair on fire after sitting on that Houston loss for two weeks during the bye. I'd also expect a rested and healthy Avery Johnson to use his legs more with their Big 12 title hopes hanging in the balance. Kansas State should have no issues moving the ball against a very mediocre ASU defense.
It's also a prime opportunity to sell high on the lucky Sun Devils, who also don't have an ideal matchup.
I'm assuming Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo will suit up after missing last week with an injury, but that isn't set in stone. Regardless, even if he's fully healthy, Kansas State can contain the bruising former Sacramento State transfer.
The Wildcats boast one of the nation's top rush defenses, ranking third in Success Rate and 10th in EPA per Rush. Teams that can slow down Arizona State on the ground can choke out its offense.
You have to attack this Kansas State defense through the air, and I just don't trust quarterback Sam Leavitt to do that on a consistent basis in known passing situations, assuming the Wildcats do indeed slow down Skattebo.
Lastly, don't sleep on Kansas State's enormous advantage on special teams.
I'll happily take what I show as a discount with the home team (off of a bye) that I have power-rated as the clear No. 1 in the Big 12 against an overrated ASU bunch.
Pick: Kansas State -7.5 (-110)
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Washington State vs. New Mexico Best Bet & Pick
If you want to understand this play, kids, we’ll need to jump into the Wayback machine.
During the BCS days, a computer formula determined who played in the National Title Game and New Year’s Six Bowl games. You could juke the computer component in your favor if you ran up scores. Those outcomes also swayed pollsters, as their votes were also factored in. The result was some extremely lopsided games late in the year where coaches would show no mercy to their opponents.
Without a conference championship game in December, Wazzu will need to deploy this ancient strategy and go for style points against New Mexico.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Wazzu a 13% shot to make the College Football Playoff if they win out. You can find Wazzu anywhere between 15-to-1 and 50-to-1 in the futures market.
So that means they need two things.
First, they need to beat the stuffing out of their remaining schedule.
Second, they need chaos. Mainly, Army upsetting Notre Dame and following up on that win with a loss in the AAC Title Game.
In the “what they can control” department, the Cougs must run it up on New Mexico.
My theme this week has been to get into bed with awful defenses, and New Mexico is dreadful on that side of the ball.
The Lobos are easily a bottom-five run defense, and they’ve made lousy offenses look incredible as of late. For perspective, they gave up 49 points and 604 yards of offense to Wyoming at home. That was just the second time the Pokes had scored seven touchdowns in a regular season game in the past five seasons.
New Mexico hasn’t even had to deal with an elite dual-threat quarterback yet.
The edge rushers and linebackers should be shaking in their cleats with John Mateer behind center. Not only is he a dangerous rushing threat, but he’s become lethal in the short to intermediate passing games. For example, in the 10-19-yard window, Mateer has an 83.9 Pro Football Focus Passing grade. Route concepts like slants, outs, and hitches all fall in that window, and New Mexico cannot stop them — the Lobos rank bottom 15 nationally at defending all three routes this season.
So if Wazzu threatens a 50-burger, can it get enough stops?
I respect Bronco Mendenhall and Devon Dampier. The pairing has breathed life into this New Mexico offense, and the future is bright in Albuquerque.
But the lights have been flickering a bit in the past month. Colorado State held New Mexico to just six points. San Diego State also contained the Lobos, limiting their explosive attack to 21 points.
How did they do it? Third down defense.
New Mexico still got their yards against CSU (453) and SDSU (475), but the Lobos were below average on third downs (10-for-26, 38%). That’s dead on Wazzu’s third-down defense number, and the Cougars are even better in the red zone, ranking 40th nationally in red-zone scoring percentage allowed.
In a potential shootout, a few punts and a bend-don't-break approach inside the 20 should limit New Mexico to 31 points. If that comes to pass, I feel comfortable laying up to 14 points in this spot.
Pick: Washington State -10.5 (-110)
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Kansas vs. BYU Best Bet & Pick
I predict the Jayhawks upset BYU and give the Cougars their first loss.
Kansas vs. BYU is not a trap spot, much to the public's chagrin. Despite a 3-6 team on the road vs. a 9-0 squad, the numbers tell a different story.
For example, Kansas is just outside the top 25 nationally in yards per play, with plenty of offensive firepower to hang with anyone. The results have been unlucky, and the defense could also use a little help.
Two different Action PRO insights speak volumes to the value of backing Rock Chalk Jayhawk.
For starters, our PRO Projections make Kansas -0.9 — hence, experts suggest the wrong team may be favored.
Also, get this: Per our premium moneyline PRO System, unranked small road underdogs win 51% of the time in games with high totals.
The best way to back Kansas in this matchup isn’t against the spread — it’s the moneyline.
Pick: Kansas ML (+115)
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