Unlike the NFL, where every team plays on the first weekend, college football has a unique Week 0 in which only a few teams make their debut.
This year, we saw 14 FBS squads kick off their seasons last weekend with five of those six back in action again in Week 1 against an opponent making its season debut.
College Football Predictions: What to Know About the Effect of Week 0
Looking Back at a Unique Early-Season Situation
That leads one to ponder what's more important: shaking off the rust and working out the kinks in live action, or holding a potential film, rest and preparation edge.
Teams that have yet to play can see what their opponent did in Week 0. Meanwhile, they can reap the benefits of the unknown as it pertains to their own respective game plans and wrinkles.
The latter can be especially important in college football, a sport filled with an abundance of coaching and roster turnover each offseason — and even more so in today's landscape.
Additionally, teams making their debut could potentially enjoy a preparation edge.
While their opponent would have spent time preparing for their first opponent, teams that didn't play in the opening week had no such concerns. They have a leg up when it comes to allocating time to get ready for that Week 1 clash.
The extra rest — and sometimes lack of travel and/or injuries — also doesn't hurt. Look at Florida State and Georgia Tech, which have to travel 4,000 miles back to the states for their home openers against Boston College and Georgia State, respectively.
While the Notes will get a couple extra days with their game on Monday, both teams will have to face opponents that sat at home with brand new staffs, which also adds to that aforementioned uncertainty factor.
College Football Trends: Historical Results for Week 0 Teams
Based solely on historic against-the-spread terms, the answer to this question is clear: the team making its debut holds an edge.
Teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at just under a 55% clip historically, including FCS teams.
However, the FCS market is much less efficient, hence the lower limits. Therefore, if we isolate FBS teams, they have actually fared a bit better at 60-34 ATS (63.8%) since 2005, including 4-1 against the closing number last season.
For reference, I only included games played in August and September. That removes eight season openers in 2020 that involved Mountain West and Pac-12 clubs that started late due to pandemic disruptions.
Five Week 1 College Football Games That Fit the Trend
| Week 1 Debut | Opponent | Week 0 Result |
|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Tech | W by 3 vs. FSU | |
| at FSU | L by 3 vs. GT | |
| vs. Nevada | L by 5 vs. SMU | |
| at Hawaii | W by 21 vs. DSU | |
| vs. UNM | L by 4 vs. Montana St. |
SMU, which played Nevada last week, didn't make the cut since it faces FCS Houston Christian.
For what it's worth, Boston College vs. Florida State is the only conference matchup among those five games. It's a minuscule sample size, but teams making their season debut against a conference foe that played in Week 0 have gone 14-3 ATS (82.3%), covering by an average of just under a touchdown per game.
You could argue teams in that scenario have an even bigger film advantage and may unleash an even greater frequency of new looks since coaches put more weight into conference action.
Plus, it's not like Florida State could skate by an easy opponent without showing much last week. Meanwhile, Boston College should have a few tricks up its sleeve for such a critical game under new head coach Bill O'Brien.
Just something to keep in mind.
Buyer Beware
Be cognizant of the fact that the aforementioned historical results certainly don't guarantee future success. There's still plenty of noise in a sample size of fewer than 100 games.
Plus, many bettors often forget that efficient markets do adjust to profitable trends over time.
Simply put, this is just an angle I like to keep in mind when handicapping a unique situation that only pops up a handful of times each season in Week 1. It may ultimately just keep me off (or push me onto) a game I'm on the fence for.
College Football Predictions: Week 2 Betting Angles & Considerations
Another more familiar unique angle for Week 1 of the college football season looks at the Week 2 schedule.
Teams with a cupcake season opener with a significant matchup in the following week may opt not to show too much from the playbook to minimize usable film. They also may want to avoid injuries as starters get up to game speed by potentially putting the second-stringers in early.
I especially like to use this as a potential angle for a second-half wager in Week 1 (on either the underdog or under) if the game is a blowout and I believe the favorite will park the bus over the final two quarters.
One must approach every situation and coach differently, so this strategy requires more art than science.
For reference, here are seven potential Week 2 matchups that could impact how those teams approach their season openers this upcoming weekend:
- Texas (vs. Colorado State) at Michigan (vs. Fresno State)
- Kansas State (vs. UT Martin) at Tulane (vs. SELA)
- Pittsburgh (vs. Kent State) at Cincinnati (vs. Towson)
- Baylor (vs. Tarleton) at Utah (vs. Southern Utah)
- Iowa State (vs. North Dakota) at Iowa (vs. Illinois State)
- South Carolina (vs. Old Dominion) at Kentucky (vs. Southern Miss)
- Tennessee (vs. Chattanooga) at NC State (vs. Western Carolina)
Texas heading to the Big House to take on Michigan is obviously the highlight of Week 2, but Tennessee vs. NC State in Charlotte could potentially have playoff implications as well.
Elsewhere, while Baylor will have the film advantage over Tarleton State (which played in a Week 0 FCS matchup), I doubt it wants to reveal too much and is likely allocating much more time to its Utah prep.
Iowa, finally under the tutelage of a new offensive coordinator, may elect to go super vanilla with the Cy-Hawk rivalry on deck.
Kentucky and South Carolina — both with new quarterbacks — open with cupcakes before a pretty big conference swing game for each team's season outlook.
Meanwhile, Boise State better be focused on an odd trip to Statesboro to take on Georgia Southern with a trip to Eugene looming on deck.
Lastly, I'm curious to see how much Pitt reveals its new offense against an overmatched MAC opponent with a short trip to the Queen City up next.
