Week 5 of the college football season has some big games, but none are bigger than Saturday night in Tuscaloosa as Alabama hosts Georgia for a top-five showdown.
From a total perspective, we now have enough data on each team to create a base of what their pace is going to be this year. That should help us attack the market with even more efficiency.
Welcome to our Week 5 Pace Report, where we'll focus on three games: Ohio State vs. Michigan State, Indiana vs. Maryland and Washington State vs. Boise State.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 4.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 5 off with three totals to target.
Maryland vs Indiana Prediction
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Indiana's offense can do no wrong right now, but this might be the first game it slows down a bit.
The Hoosiers have scored over 30 points in all of their games this season and have posted some of the best offensive numbers in the nation, ranking second in Success Rate and fifth in EPA.
Their rushing attack has been great, but it really comes down to how efficient Kurtis Rourke has been at quarterback.
The Ohio transfer is averaging 10.7 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. His PFF passing grade of 91.2 ranks third in the country behind only Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart and Miami's Cam Ward.
However, those numbers have come against below-average defenses. Three of Indiana's four opponents have been FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte. The Hoosiers put up 77 points against Western Illinois, which boosted all of their offensive rankings quite a bit.
Maryland has been a very average team against the pass this season, but it's been quite good against the run. That has been especially true when it comes to giving up big plays, as the Terrapins rank 27th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
The other aspect of Maryland's defense is its ability to limit scoring opportunities. The Terps rank 27th in Finishing Drives Allowed, which is big against an Indiana team that seemingly scores every time it crosses the 40-yard line.
Maryland's offense has been pretty good this season, but the one time it had to face a good defense in Michigan State, it proved to be severely limited.
In that 27-24 loss, the Terps couldn't run the ball at all, averaging only 2.8 yards per carry. That's going to be a big problem in this game, not because Billy Edwards hasn't been a good quarterback, but because Indiana's secondary ranks top-20 in Passing Success Rate Allowed and the weather could make a big impact.
Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast Thursday night, with the storm tracking up north through Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky. By Saturday, Bloomington is expected to see some effects from the Hurricane.
According to AccuWeather, there's expected to be around 10 mph winds and a 64% chance of rain on Saturday, which could drastically impact this game — especially with how efficient both of these passing attacks have been.
The other aspect of this game is that the pace will likely be slow. Even though Indiana's offense has exploded, it doesn't play fast. The Hoosiers rank 107th in seconds per play, while Maryland comes in right around the national average.
Given the weather situation and the pace of this game, I think the total is a little too high/ I like getting the under above a key number at 55.5.
Pick: Under 55.5 (BetMGM)
Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
Ohio State has been rolling everyone in it's path, but this Michigan State defense is the first solid stop unit it will face.
You'd expect quarterback Will Howard to be putting up elite passing numbers with Ohio State being 3-0 and averaging over 45 points on offense. While that's the case on paper, he owns a PFF passing grade of just 73.7 against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall.
He hasn't been forced to beat teams with him arm because Ohio State has had a comfortable lead in every game — but that might change against Michigan State.
The Spartans are one of the few teams on Ohio State's schedule that can stop the run. MSU has played the 45th-most difficult schedule thus far and ranks 10th in the nation in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Last weekend against Boston College, the Spartans faced one of the best running quarterbacks in college football in Thomas Castellanos and limited him to just 15 yards on 15 attempts.
That's important because Howard can be really dangerous with his legs, so containing him will be a key for Michigan State.
If the Spartans can slow down Ohio State's rushing attack and force Howard to beat them with his arm, they'll be in a decent spot. Ultimately, I'm not sure Howard is capable of doing that.
Last season at Kansas State, Howard averaged just 7.3 yards per attempt and recorded only 16 big-time throws. He hasn't been forced into throwing the ball at high rate, so if he's pushed into it here, we'll see how he fares on the road in a hostile environment.
While the Michigan State defense has been good, the offense has been a different story. It's losing in the trenches, ranking outside the top 100 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country and owns the nation's fourth-best run defense grade, according to PFF.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has been a turnover machine so far this season, as he has already thrown eight interceptions with 11 turnover-worthy plays in four games. Ohio State's defense ranks second nationally in Havoc, so don't be surprised if the Spartans turn the ball over multiple times on Saturday.
The total is too high for me here given that this is the first opponent that could slow down Ohio State's rushing attack and force Howard to put the ball in the air.
I only have 44.7 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 49.5 points.
Pick: Under 49.5 (FanDuel)
Washington State vs Boise State Prediction
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 64.5 -120o / -102u | +220 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 64.5 -120o / -102u | -275 |
This should be a really fun late-night game with a lot of points.
Washington State's offense is humming right now after putting up 54 points against San Jose State. A lot of its success has to do with quarterback John Mateer.
With Mateer under center, the Cougars are the biggest boom-or-bust offense in the country. They lead the nation in explosive plays but sit just 51st in Success Rate.
Mateer's passing grades aren't all that great, but he throws the ball down the field at a really high rate. He already has seven big time throws and an average depth of target of 12.7 yards, which is the third-highest average for quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes.
Mateer is also a really dangerous runner. He's averaging 8.5 yards per carry with five touchdowns and already has 16 runs of 10 yards or more.
While Boise State brought back everyone on the defensive side of the ball, it's been terrible this season.
The Broncos have played just three games on the season, but in the two that came against FBS opponents — Georgia Southern and Oregon — they allowed a combined 82 points.
Right now the Broncos rank 125th in explosiveness allowed and 116th in Finishing Drives Allowed. That's a terrible combination against this Washington State offense.
Meanwhile, there are real question marks in this game about how Washington State stops Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty.
The Cougars sit outside the top 100 in rushing explosiveness allowed and 72nd in EPA/Rush.
And in case you haven't heard, Jeanty is tearing up college football, averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns in only three games.
No back is in the same tier as Ashton Jeanty in this 2025 draft cycle. pic.twitter.com/9fhjeGI0FA
— AngeloFF (@angelo_fantasy) September 8, 2024
The pace of this game is expected to be really fast, as both teams come in inside the top 45 in seconds per play.
So, given the fact that both offenses have massive advantages, I like the value on over 65 points.
Pick: Over 65 (bet365)
