Week 6 of the college football season doesn't have a Georgia vs. Alabama-esque game on the schedule, but there are still a lot of solid games on the docket — and that means there are plenty of betting opportunities.
That's especially true in the totals market.
From a total perspective, we now have enough data on each team to create a base of what their pace is going to be this year. That should help us attack the market with even more efficiency.
Welcome to our Week 6 Pace Report, where we'll focus on three games: Sam Houston vs. UTEP, Iowa vs. Ohio State and Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 5.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 6 off with three totals to target.
Sam Houston vs. UTEP Prediction
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -450 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +333 |
I think this Thursday night total is a tad too high with neither team finding much success offensively.
Despite being 4-1, Sam Houston ranks 98th in Success Rate, and a lot of that has to do with the poor play of Hunter Watson at quarterback.
For the season, he's averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt with a PFF passing grade of 45.4. He had a solid start to the season and has made an impact with his legs, but take a look at his passing numbers over the last two games:
- vs. Texas State (Sept. 28): 10-of-19, 95 yards
- vs. New Mexico State (Sept. 21): 9-of-24, 61 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions
Recording five turnover-worthy plays at home against New Mexico State is definitely cause for concern.
The run game hasn't been able to take any of the pressure off him either, as the Bearkats rank 87th in EPA/Rush and 98th in Rushing Success Rate.
They've improved over their last two games, averaging over five yards per carry, but it's been all Watson.
UTEP's defense hasn't been good this season either, but it isn't any worse than some of the teams Sam Houston has already played this year.
The Miners offense has also struggled to move the ball.
The last time they were in action against Colorado State, they averaged just 1.9 yards per carry. On the season, they rank 112th in EPA/Rush because the offensive line has not been doing a good job of opening up running lanes. In fact, the Miners sit just 123rd in Offensive Line Yards.
UTEP has made a change at quarterback, as Cade McConnell is set to make his second start of the season after taking over against Colorado State.
He started six games for UTEP last year and was a turnover machine, racking up 16 turnover-worthy plays compared to 10 big-time throws. He also had an incredibly low PFF passing grade of 49.5.
He's also terrible when throwing from a crowded pocket, which is bad news for the Miners because Sam Houston ranks 22nd in Havoc and has the eighth-best coverage grade in college football.
UTEP plays at a fast tempo, but it's just going nowhere fast. Sam Houston, meanwhile, is closer to the FBS average in terms of seconds per play.
I have 43.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 50.5 points
Pick: Under 50.5 (BetMGM)
Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
Ohio State hasn't really been tested against an elite defensive front, so it's hard to gauge how good its rushing attack truly is.
The Buckeyes have the most talented backfield in college football, but this will be one of the best run defenses they'll see all season.
Iowa brought back pretty much everyone from a defensive front that was one of the best in college football against the run a season ago. It has continued that level of play this season, ranking 15th in EPA/Rush Allowed and second in rushing explosiveness allowed. In addition to that, Iowa has the best run defense grade, according to PFF.
If the Hawkeyes can slow down Ohio State's rushing attack and force Will Howard to beat them with his arm, they'll be in a good spot.
Simply put, I'm not sure Howard is capable of doing that.
Last season at Kansas State, Howard averaged just 7.3 yards per attempt and recorded only 16 big-time throws. He hasn't been forced into throwing the ball at high rate, so if he's pushed into it here throwing into an elite secondary that owns the second-best coverage grade in college football, Ohio State could struggle to move the ball.
While the Iowa offense has improved under Tim Lester, I'm not sure how the Hawkeyes will move the ball effectively here.
Running back Kaleb Johnson has been awesome this season, averaging well over eight yards per carry while ranking second nationally in total rushing yards behind only Boise State's Ashton Jeanty.
The reason for that is the offensive line has done a much better job blocking up front, but it's likely going to be overmatched in this game.
Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing only 1.9 yards per carry through its first four games while sitting second in EPA/Rush Allowed.
The best aspect of Ohio State's defense, though, is how well it limits scoring opportunities. The Buckeyes lead the country in Finishing Drives Allowed and have also been doing a great job on third downs, allowing the 12th-lowest third-down conversion rate.
I have only 41.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 44.5 points.
Pick: Under 44.5 (bet365)
Virginia Tech vs. Stanford Prediction
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -325 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | +260 |
The total here is a little too low for me.
Quarterback Kyron Drones had a great game on the road against Miami last Thursday before the Hokies got screwed on the final play.
Drones owns a PFF passing grade of 79.3 and is incredibly dangerous in play-action situations. He's been in play action on 31% of his dropbacks and has averaged 9.4 yards per attempt with a PFF passing grade of 90 in those scenarios.
Drones is also an incredibly dangerous runner, averaging 5.8 yards per carry while forcing 13 missed tackles. Stanford has been very stout up front against the run this season, but it's outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, so Drones' arm will be the difference in this game.
Stanford's defense has not been good at stopping teams once they cross the 40-yard line. The Cardinal rank 75th in Finishing Drives Allowed with their opponents averaging 3.7 points per scoring opportunity.
Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels has struggled to throw the ball this season, and it's all about giving him a clean pocket. When's not pressured, he's an average quarterback. However, when he's under pressure, he puts up a PFF passing grade of 43.6, making him one of the worst QBs in the country with a crowded pocket.
Virginia Tech has one of the better pass-rush grades in college football and forced Cam Ward into three turnover-worthy plays and two picks. Another performance like that could put the offense in a great position with a short field.
However, there are real concerns here as to how Virginia Tech is going to stop Stanford's rushing attack.
The Hokies sit outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush Allowed, while Stanford is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. The Cardinal have broken off a lot of big runs, ranking 40th in rushing explosiveness.
Both of these teams want to play fast, as Virginia Tech ranks 18th in seconds per play, while Stanford is sitting at 54th. I have 55.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 49.5 points.
Pick: Over 49.5 (FanDuel)
