It's time to dive into Saturday's slate for college football Week 7 after a perfect 10-0 week, which was very welcome after a rough stretch to close out September.
The best part is almost every cover came with relative easy with all seven underdogs either winning outright or losing in the final seconds.
There will be great and horrid days in this gig, so, like always, it's onto the next week.
Looking ahead to Week 7, I have highlighted my 10 favorite spots I had circled for Saturday's slate.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing early in the week. I will always log what I bet on the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for convenience.
My ultimate goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were thinking about by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 7.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 21-20-1 (51.2%)
- Overall: 120-90-2 (57.1%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Iowa -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Buffalo +9.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Colorado State +1.5 |
  | 5 p.m. | Southern Miss +7 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | LSU +3.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Nevada +4 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | Under 46.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | West Virginia +3.5 |
  | 9 p.m. | UCLA +5.5 |
  | 11 p.m. | Hawaii +21.5 |
Iowa -2.5 vs. Washington
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This is a brutal situational spot for Washington, which will make another trip out east after coming back home following a trip out to Rutgers on a short week. Not only that, but this game will kick at 10 a.m. local time for the Huskies, who will be coming off an emotional victory over Michigan to exact National Championship revenge.
I backed Washington in that matchup, but that had more to do with how bad I think the Wolverines are this year.
It feels odd to say out loud, but Iowa has a more respectable passing attack than Michigan.
As a result, Washington can't solely focus on taking away the Hawkeye rushing attack, as Cade McNamara should be able to do just enough in the short passing attack to keep the Huskie defense honest.
That should open up opportunities for Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to hit some explosive runs and exploit a Washington run defense that ranks below the national average in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
Most importantly, in a game where points should come at a premium, I trust Iowa to win on the margins across the board, especially in terms of penalties and special teams. That's basically how Kirk Ferentz's teams have won games for decades against teams in their same weight class.
On the season, Washington ranks outside the top 100 in penalty yards per game (70.7), while Iowa ranks No. 1 overall at over 50 yards less on a per-game basis.
And if you go by SP+ rankings from a special teams perspective, Washington sits at No. 130, while Iowa finds itself in the top 25 as usual. Not only do the Huskies have major field goal issues — Grady Gross has made just 9-of-15 attempts — but they also have punting problems.
Expect Iowa to win the field-position battle and hit enough big runs with Johnson to come away with a typical ugly Iowa home victory.
Notable Nugget
Following a loss, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown, covering by just under eight points per game on average.
Projection: Iowa -3.4
Pick: Iowa -2.5 or Better
Note: I prefer the ML in what profiles as a low-scoring game.
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Buffalo +9.5 vs. Toledo
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
On the surface, this is one of the best situational spots on the board.
Toledo could come out very sleepy for a noon kick in Buffalo after getting its MAC Championship revenge over Miami (OH) last week with two more massive MAC games on deck against Bowling Green and Northern Illinois that will in all likelihood determine if it will make it back to Detroit.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a bye week after getting embarrassed by UConn in what was a pretty poor spot after pulling off a major upset on the road against Northern Illinois.
With so much roster and staff turnover in the offseason, the off week should be super beneficial for Pete Lembo's bunch.
From a matchup perspective, Toledo has no semblance of a rushing attack (100th in Success Rate) after losing quarterback Dequan Finn and running back Peny Boone to the transfer portal.
Consequently, the entire offense is completely reliant on Tucker Gleason airing it out to an outstanding group of pass-catchers for MAC standards. However, Buffalo's defense has fared significantly better against the pass, ranking 20th in EPA.
Gleason is also extremely inconsistent, rotating between productive and messy games through five weeks. When he's on, the Rockets look competent on offense. However, he will have some weeks where he simply can't hit sand if he fell off of a camel.
Look no further than Toledo's home game against UMass in which Gleason connected on only 8-of-23 attempts in a fortunate 38-23 victory in which the Rockets were outgained, 384-267.
If you want to compare similar data points, Buffalo beat that same UMass team at home by a score of 34-3 with a 314-193 yardage edge.
Historically, Toledo head coach Jason Candle has had stinkers in this exact spot, so I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo uglies this game up enough to pull off another league upset, especially if Gleason has an off day and puts the ball in harm's way.
Notable Nugget
In MAC play, touchdown-plus underdogs in games with a total below 47 have gone 48-35-1 ATS (57.8%) since 2005.
Projection: Buffalo +7
Pick: Buffalo +9 or Better · Waiting to see if I can get a +10
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Colorado State +1.5 vs. San Jose State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ truTV
I'm going back to the well with the Rams after they got to the window for me last week in an unlucky overtime loss against Oregon State.
The same logic applies this week, as Colorado State simply got much healthier on both sides of the ball during the bye week before that matchup with the Beavers.
Wide receiver Tory Horton is now back at full strength, as evidenced by his nine-catch, 158-yard performance last week. Meanwhile, the defense also got some key starters back.
This is also a matchup between two teams that have had major discrepancies in strength of schedule, which I think is creating some value on the small home 'dog.
While Colorado State has losses to Oregon State, Texas and Colorado, the Spartans started off the season with three wins against hilariously bad competition in Air Force, Kennesaw State and Sacramento State.
They most recently came back to win in the final minute at home over an improved Nevada squad, but the combined record of the four teams they beat is 1-16 against FBS completion.
While San Jose State is better than I expected, color me not impressed with a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 135 (including FCS teams). Compare that to Colorado State, which has a strength of schedule that ranks above the national average to date.
Hypothetically, if Colorado State won that coin-flip game against Oregon State and San Jose State lost to Sacramento State (a game that was back-and-forth until the end) and Nevada, I don't believe the Rams would be home 'dogs here.
Additionally, some drama may be brewing with the Spartans, who made a quarterback change last week from Emmett Brown — who was seen smashing his helmet into the ground after being taken out — to Walker Eget.
We'll see how that plays out this week, but it's definitely worth noting for a team that can't run the ball a lick with both signal-callers expected to split time with the 1s in practice leading up to this week's game in Fort Collins.
The Colorado State cornerback room remains a major concern, so let's just hope they actually cover Nick Nash — otherwise, this will turn into a complete shootout, as I do expect the Rams to get Avery Morrow going on the ground, which should set up plenty of opportunities for Horton on the perimeter.
As far as Group of Five wide receiver matchups go, this is as good as it gets with Nash vs. Horton.
Notable Nugget
Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell is 22-9 ATS (71%) as an underdog in Mountain West play, covering by just under five points per game.
Over the past 20 seasons, only three other coaches (among 492 in our Action Labs database) have turned a bigger profit in that role.
Projection: Colorado State -3.1
Pick: Colorado State -1 or Better
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Southern Miss +7 at Louisiana-Monroe
5 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Southern Miss was potentially on quit watch after what I saw against Jacksonville State a few weeks back, but I actually saw some fight last Saturday in a 10-point loss (and easy cover) against a very good Louisiana team.
That gives me enough confidence to back the Golden Eagles, who also didn't pack it in late last year after a 1-7 start under Will Hall.
However, this is predominantly a fade of the Warhawks as seven-point favorites in a game with a super low total.
UL Monroe has exceeded all expectations after a complete rebuild in the offseason, but now we're asking a very limited offense that ranks in the bottom three nationally in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate to win by more than a touchdown.
After an upset over JMU (in which they were outgained 399-257), we have to be approaching the peak of the market on this surprise ULM squad that had previous victories over FCS Jackson State and a pair of dysfunctional FBS teams in Troy and UAB.
The Warhawks just simply don't profile as a team that you want to lay points with since they play as slow as any team in the country.
The Southern Miss run defense worries me a bit, but it can load the box here to take away Ahmad Hardy and at least keep this within one score against a team that has benefited from extremely fortunate field position all season so far.
Believe it or not, Southern Miss actually has the superior offense in this matchup.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, over a sample size of 480 games, road conference dogs of seven or more have cashed at north of a 60% clip in games with a total of less than 46.
Projection: Southern Miss +4.5
Pick: Southern Miss +6.5 or Better
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LSU +3.5 vs. Ole Miss
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This is a great situational spot for the Tigers, who will come off a bye week to host a Rebels team playing their seventh straight to start the season, including back-to-back tilts against physical SEC foes over the past two weeks.
I also don't mind the matchup for the LSU offense. The Tigers simply can't run the ball, but that won't matter much against what I believe is a legit Ole Miss run defense.
What LSU can do well is sling the ball around with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who should test a much more vulnerable back end of the Ole Miss defense.
Additionally, the LSU offensive line — which features plenty of future pros — excels in pass protection, which should keep the Rebel pass rush in check, allowing Nuss Bus to cook.
Keep in mind Ole Miss has yet to face a passing attack of this caliber with a schedule that has included the following opponents:
- Kentucky
- South Carolina
- Furman
- Middle Tennessee
- Wake Forest
- Georgia Southern
This could be a bit of a shock to the system, especially if LSU worked out some of the kinks with its new run-blocking scheme to give it any semblance of balance.
The bye week should also help new defensive coordinator Blake Baker figure out some things with a unit that has dealt with injuries while undergoing a scheme change.
While improved, the LSU defense still has plenty of holes, so I'm not sure if it can fully exploit a vulnerable Ole Miss offensive line in the same way that the dominant fronts of Kentucky and South Carolina did.
Therefore, I won't deny that Jaxson Dart and company will likely enjoy plenty of offensive success.
However, given the spot and where I project this spread, I had to back the Tigers at over a field goal in Death Valley in a game that could come down to whichever team has the ball last just like it did last year when these two teams scored 104 combined points.
Notable Nugget
Brian Kelly is 35-18 ATS (66%) as an underdog, including 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week, covering by 3.5 points per game on average.
Projection: LSU +1.2
Pick: LSU +3 or Better
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Nevada +4 vs. Oregon State
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Oregon State has wins this year over Idaho State, San Diego State, the corpse of Purdue and most recently Colorado State in double overtime. Not the most impressive resume on the planet if you ask me.
Now, the Beavers find themselves in a tough situational spot, having to go out on the road for a second straight game in altitude with UNLV on deck after playing a double-overtime game in Colorado.
Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack lost a heartbreaker to San Jose State in the final minute but are still one of the most improved teams in the country, primarily due to an astronomical coaching upgrade.
Keep in mind this Nevada team could easily be 4-0 had it not lost coin-flips against Georgia Southern (extremely unlucky), SMU (has aged much better and blew a lead late) and the aforementioned SJSU game.
The Pack feature a dynamic and complex rushing attack, which should cause fits for a putrid Beaver run defense that ranks outside the top 120 nationally in both Success Rate and EPA per Play.
The Oregon State rush offense has undoubtedly been dynamic, but now it's dealing with injuries in the backfield. Plus, the passing attack remains extremely limited.
Give me the home 'dog in a good spot in a battle of ground-and-pounds.
Projection: 2.8
Pick: Nevada +3.5 or Better
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Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Under 46.5
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
I'd love to fade Vanderbilt this week after its biggest win in program history. This is still a Commodores team that lost as a double-digit favorite earlier this year at Georgia State.
However, I'm not keen on fading the service-academy-esque offense of Vandy as a double-digit underdog and don't love the idea of laying two touchdowns with a still-limited Kentucky offense that hasn't consistently utilized any of the tempo it spoke about in the offseason.
In a matchup between two snails, I'd expect a very slow-paced game with limited possessions and wouldn't be surprised if Vandy came out a bit flat after its monumental win over Alabama. The 'Dores may still be celebrating on Broadway as I write this.
Therefore, I think the best way to attack this potentially flat Vanderbilt spot is to go under the total, which I'm also splitting with its team total under 15.5 as well.
I expect Vanderbilt to duplicate its same approach as last week as a big underdog when it had the slowest neutral-situation pace of the entire weekend.
I just don't see how this run-first Vanderbilt offense has much success against one of the nation's best defensive front sevens that ranks top-five in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
For reference, the Wildcats held the explosive Georgia and Ole Miss offenses to 13 and 17 points, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats passing attack is still a work in progress (123rd Pass Success Rate compared to 14th in Rush Success Rate), which should be welcome news for a Vanderbilt defense that has fared substantially better against the run (15th Success Rate) than pass so far this season.
Notable Nugget
Mark Stoops is just 4-10 ATS following a bye week, failing to cover by 5.5 points per game on average.
Projection: Under 43.9
Pick: Under 45.5 or Better
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West Virginia +3.5 vs. Iowa State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I loved Iowa State coming into the season. However, despite starting 5-0 for the first time since 1980, the Cyclones haven't necessarily lit the world on fire against a very favorable schedule that has included a litany of disappointing teams, including Baylor and Houston in their first two Big 12 games.
Meanwhile, West Virginia has played one of the nation's toughest schedules to date and seemed to figure some things out during its bye week prior to a dismantling of Oklahoma State on the road last Saturday.
And while the 'Eers got healthier during the bye week, Iowa State saw the injuries continue to pile up last week in its win over Baylor. It could now be down to a trio of third-stringers on the second level of Jon Heacock's 3-3-5 defense.
From a matchup perspective, it's no secret West Virginia wants to run the ball to set up explosive passing plays off of play-action.
Well, that formula could work against an Iowa State defense that's very vulnerable against opposing rushing attacks in part due to health issues at linebacker.
Iowa State won't get much on the ground itself against West Virginia, but Rocco Becht and the excellent wide receiver duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins could connect on a plethora of chunk passing plays against a vulnerable West Virginia secondary.
With that said, I'll still take my chances with the home running 'dog catching over a field goal in front of a raucous crowd in Morgantown in a battle for first place in the Big 12.
Notable Nugget
Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State has played only two previous conference road games when ranked inside the top 15. They lost both against Baylor and West Virginia.
Projection: West Virginia +1.5
Pick: West Virginia +3 or Better
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UCLA +5.5 vs. Minnesota
9 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This isn't the best travel spot for the Bruins, who started out the season in Hawaii and have had two long trips out east already to take on LSU and Penn State.
However, they've at least had a bye week this season. That's something Minnesota can't say, as it will play its seventh straight game to start the season with a trip out west after three straight extremely physical games against Iowa, Michigan and most recently in an upset win over USC.
The Gophers may be a bit flat after those efforts. And they did get a bit fortunate in that victory over the Trojans, going 2-for-2 on fourth down with a +2 turnover margin in a fourth-quarter comeback.
While UCLA has gotten off to a disappointing 1-4 start, keep in mind the Bruins have played the most difficult schedule in the country to date with each of their past four losses coming against teams currently ranked in the top 20:
- Indiana
- Oregon
- LSU
- Penn State
This will be a nice relief against an opponent more in their weight class.
I also do believe the revamped Bruins have been improving as the season has progressed despite the brutal level of competition. I also liked some of the schematic and roster tweaks they made in Happy Valley last week.
Give me the home 'dog in a game that should be an absolute grinder with a pair of teams that don't fancy pace.
Notable Nugget
Big Ten teams are just 1-8 when traveling across two or more time zones in 2024.
Projection: UCLA +3
Pick: UCLA +4.5 or Better
Note: I'm waiting to see if the line goes higher since it's currently sitting in a dead zone.
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Hawaii +21.5 vs. Boise State
11 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Boise State is rolling thanks to the incomparable, current Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty, who seems to go for 200 yards in his sleep.
However, the Broncos could get caught peaking ahead to a massive Mountain West showdown against UNLV up next, which could go a long way in determining their College Football Playoff fate.
As a result, I don't expect them to extend Jeanty more than they have to with the goal of keeping him fresh and healthy for bigger games throughout the season, starting two Fridays from now in Las Vegas.
For proof of that approach, look no further than recent blowout wins over Portland State and Utah State in which Jeanty didn't even get a single carry in the second half.
Meanwhile, the Boise State defense still has glaring weaknesses, especially against the pass, where it ranks outside the top 100 in EPA.
Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager and company should do enough through the air to get to the mid-to-high 20s at a minimum, considering Georgia Southern put up 45 and even Utah State's anemic offense got to 30.
That would likely be enough to cover what I believe is a bit of an inflated number.
While Hawaii remains winless against FBS competition, it easily could be sitting at 4-1 overall if not for blown fourth-quarter leads against UCLA and San Diego State in a pair of three-point losses.
Plus, the backdoor should be wide open if needed with Boise State not likely to keep running it up with UNLV on deck.
Notable Nugget
Timmy Chang is 4-0 ATS as a home conference 'dog with two outright wins, covering by an average of 11.5 points per game.
Projection: Hawaii +18.6
Pick: Hawaii +21 or Better
