It's time to dive into Saturday's slate for college football Week 5.
Looking ahead to Week 5, I have highlighted my nine favorite Saturday spots I had circled in addition to quick thoughts on seven other games on the docket. Those games include Alabama vs. Georgia, Duke vs. North Carolina, Baylor vs. BYU and a lot more.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. I have also included the number I would bet it to for convenience.
My ultimate goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were thinking about by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
As we get more data points throughout the season, the breakdowns will become more in-depth from a matchup perspective.
Over the first month of the season, I'm mainly looking to exploit market overreactions and play certain situational spots. I'm really still learning a lot about all of these teams with such heavy roster turnover in the new landscape of college football.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 5.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 9-13 (40.9%)
- Overall: 108-83-1 (56.6%)
Stuckey's Week 5 College Football Predictions & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Baylor -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | UAB +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | USF +6 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Appalachian State +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Western Michigan +5.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Akron +12.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | North Carolina +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Georgia -2 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Penn State -17 |
Baylor -2.5 vs. BYU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is simple handicapping here with Baylor.
The Bears should have won and covered at Colorado last week if not for a game-sealing missed field goal followed by a Hail Mary on the last play of the game and a fumble out of the end zone at the 1-yard line in overtime as the cherry on top of a colossal meltdown.
Meanwhile, BYU improved to 4-0 on the season after upsetting Kansas State, but that was a very flukey result in which the Cougars were outgained at home, 367-241.
Look no further than a six-minute stretch of game time after BYU kicked a field goal late in the first half to cut Kansas State's lead to 6-3. The following then occurred:
- Scoop-and-score touchdown
- Short-field touchdown drive after an interception
- Another short-field touchdown drive after another interception
- Punt return touchdown
Just like that… 28 points with just 56 total yards of offense. Pretty efficient, eh?
Kansas State also shot itself in the foot with costly penalties.
That win had much more to do with Kanas State than BYU, in my opinion. I can say the same thing for BYU's upset win over SMU when the Mustangs were still in complete disarray prior to their bye week.
The Cougars will still be without starting running back LJ Martin this week, and Jake Retzlaff likely has some looming turnover regression heading his way. He has thrown nine touchdowns to just three interceptions in 2024 despite only five Big-Time Throws to six Turnover-Worthy Plays.
I had no interest in ever backing the Bears with Dequan Finn — who I didn't think was a P4-level starting quarterback — under center but now don't mind that proposition with Sawyer Robertson taking over.
Baylor simply started the year with the wrong starting quarterback.
The offense is still pretty limited, and starting tackle Campbell Barrington did get banged up last game, which might make it even harder for this run game to get going.
However, the quick-passing game is much more functional with Robertson at the helm, and he can still have some success with his legs, which is an area where BYU struggles to defend.
Baylor has been pretty reliant on explosive plays on offense, which BYU has done a tremendous job of taking away so far this year, so that's a battle worth watching.
On the other side of the ball, I do think the Baylor defense is improved overall with Dave Aranda taking back the reins there. Until the final parts of the game, the Bears did a pretty good job of limiting a very explosive Colorado passing attack.
Flip those two results last week, and I don't think Baylor is a home favorite of under a field goal.
As long as they don't quit on Aranda, whose seat may be getting warmer in Waco, I like the Bears to take care of business at home against the newly-ranked Cougars, who may be at the peak of their market value.
Notable Nugget
Road dogs off a win in which they were outgained by 100-plus yards have hit at just a 37% clip ATS historically.
My Projection: Baylor -4.2
Pick: Baylor -3 or Better
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UAB +3.5 vs. Navy
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Believe it or not, Navy sits atop the AAC standings (along with Army) at 2-0, while UAB has yet to play a conference game. However, the Blazers' first league game of 2024 does come in a pretty good spot on paper.
I will say that service academies aren't as likely to fall victim to certain situational spots as other schools. They usually just show up each week and handle their business.
However, this spot is too good to pass up since the line has risen from a PK on the open (which I thought was fair) out past a field goal.
Navy heads south to Birmingham for a noon kick one week after pulling off a huge, emotional upset over Memphis in a wild game that featured 100 total points.
In that victory, quarterback Blake Horvath ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns to go along with two more through the air. It was a banner day for the Navy signal-caller, who appears to be thriving in the new-look triple-option attack under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
With Air Force also on deck, there's a chance the Mids potentially come out a little flat.
Maybe even more importantly, UAB just had a bye week, which always carries more significance ahead of a matchup against a unique offensive scheme. As a result, the staff has had two weeks to analyze three game films of Navy's new offensive wrinkles.
The Blazers also faced the Navy triple-option last season in a 31-6 defeat in Annapolis in a game that was actually 10-6 in the fourth quarter before a late nuclear meltdown.
UAB looked horrid in a loss to UL Monroe but did look much better in a close loss at Arkansas, which has aged well considering the Hogs won at Auburn and should have won at Oklahoma State.
On paper, the Blazers' short-passing attack should find success against a suspect Navy defense that was just on the field for 35 minutes (rare occurrence for them) against Memphis, which racked up 659 total yards of offense.
The moneyline might actually be the better option here since Navy has kicker issues and is much more likely to go for it on fourth down, decreasing the chances that the Mids win by 1-3 points.
Although, now that I typed that out, I'm sure that's exactly what will happen.
Notable Nugget
UAB is 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) as a home dog since 2007, covering by an average margin of just under four points per game.
My Projection: UAB +1.3
Pick: UAB +3 or Better · ML Might Be Better Option
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USF +6 at Tulane
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I faded Tulane last week and am going back to the well after what I saw at Louisiana. Yes, the Green Wave — who closed as only a one-point favorite — won and covered, but the Ragin' Cajuns outgained them, 421-355, and averaged 1.3 more yards per play.
So, what happened? Well, Tulane had everything possible go its way, including a pick-six in the final minute of the first half followed by a kick return for a touchdown to open the second half.
Even with those two non-offensive touchdowns over the course of a minute of game time, ULL still had a shot to tie it late. However, it couldn't overcome bad fourth-down variance (1-for-3 on the day vs. 1-for-1 for Tulane) or two dropped picks in addition to the aforementioned pair of fluke scores.
Meanwhile, South Florida has had two very misleading final scores against Alabama and Miami over the course of three weeks.
The Bulls trailed by one in the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa before the Tide piled on late. Against Miami, they trailed by just seven at the half and then were driving to pull within 14 at the start of the fourth quarter when quarterback Byrum Brown left with an injury.
It got out of hand from there. Brown apparently could have come back if needed, so there are no concerns from an injury perspective there.
You could argue USF could have some fatigue after playing two top-10 teams over the course of three weeks, but Tulane is in a similar boat after playing Kansas State, Oklahoma and Louisiana, with the latter two coming on the road the past two weeks.
New Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah had a very impressive game against Kansas State, but he also benefited from a multitude of coverage busts.
He has since come back down to earth against Oklahoma and Louisiana, throwing for 83 yards last week while getting away with two bad throws.
On the season, he has six touchdown passes to two interceptions but has an equal amount of Big-Time Throws to Turnover-Worthy Plays, per PFF.
He's certainly been a bit fortunate and still has room to grow, as you'd expect for a freshman. I still also have major questions about the Tulane offensive line (Mensah has been pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks) and lack of pass rush off the edge.
I actually didn't come into the season as high on USF as others but have noticed some real defensive progress from a more experienced unit that also added some key transfers — although the bar was pretty low.
Lastly, USF has a kicker advantage with Tulane's starting kicker dealing with a groin injury.
I do think this could turn into a shootout, but I'll take the points with the superior quarterback in a matchup of two teams I power-rate pretty similarly.
Tulane has been a cash cow at Yulman Stadium over the past decade, but I do think a noon kick helps the road team here in a very important game in the AAC race.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, no team has had more ATS success in home games than Tulane at 38-20-1 (65.5%) against the closing number.
My Projection: USF +3.1
Pick: USF +5 or Better
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Appalachian State +3.5 vs. Liberty
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I didn't have success fading Liberty last week in one of the most painful losses of the season for me, considering the game didn't end until after 2 a.m. ET following a five-hour weather delay.
While I didn't get to the window with ECU, I'd make that bet again. The Pirates, which led by a score of 17-0 and missed a 25-yard field goal to add to that lead, covered the entire game until a late broken run in the final minute after they fumbled in the red zone on a potential game-winning drive.
Without that miraculous cover, Liberty would be 0-4 ATS on the season. The Flames are just not the same caliber team as we saw in 2023.
They really miss CJ Daniels at wide receiver (transferred to LSU) and have dealt with numerous injuries on both sides of the ball. One of their defensive leaders also suffered a concussion last Saturday night.
Without some head-scratching coaching decisions, they really should have lost at lowly New Mexico State and didn't really put another bottom-feeder in UTEP away at home until the fourth quarter.
The Flames are vulnerable right now, and I don't think they'd be laying over a field goal here if they lost one or both of those games against either ECU or New Mexico State.
In fairness, Appalachian State has not lived up to lofty preseason expectations so far this season with a pair of ugly losses at Clemson and most recently at home against South Alabama by a score of 48-14 as touchdown favorites.
The Mountaineers simply didn't tackle in that game in a pathetic defensive effort.
I'd expect a much better effort here at home in that department even if the run defense should be a problem area throughout the season. That is a bit of a concern against Liberty running back Quinton Cooley and company, especially if there's bad weather.
While this is more of a Liberty fade than a buy of the 'Neers — who I expect to be more buttoned up defensively — we do have a pair of data points against the same opponent: East Carolina.
While both teams each came back to win after falling behind 17-0, Appalachian State put up 100 more total yards of offense than Liberty. The Mountaineers also did so on the road when ECU still had a healthy Shavon Revel at cornerback — a player many projected as a first-round NFL Draft pick before his season-ending injury during practice last week.
Lastly, while Liberty played well past midnight after a long delay last Saturday night, Appalachian State will benefit from a few extra days of rest and preparation, having played last on Thursday night.
Let's just hope we get the good version of Joey Aguilar and App State's defense remembers how to wrap up.
Notable Nugget
This will mark only the second time App State is a home underdog over the past seven seasons. The last instance occurred in 2021 when it pulled off a small upset as a 4.5-point underdog against Coastal Carolina.
My projection: Appalachian State +0.9
Pick: Appalachian State +3 or Better
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Western Michigan +5.5 at Marshall
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
On the surface, this profiles as a potentially fatal situation spot for Marshall. After back-to-back physical games on the road against Virginia Tech and Ohio State, it comes back home to take on a MAC school before opening up league play against Appalachian State.
Conversely, Western Michigan should come in much fresher following a bye week after playing a laugher at home against Bethune-Cookman.
That extra time off will not only help from a rest and preparation perspective, but it also may have enabled the Broncos to get healthier. You could see the return of three of their best offensive players from injury in All-MAC center Jacob Gideon, star running back Jalen Buckley and All-MAC wide receiver Kenneth Womack.
Womack has yet to make his season debut after an arm injury late in the summer but should be about ready for game action. Meanwhile, Buckley — the engine of the offense — missed the previous two games, while Gideon got hurt on the first series against Ohio State.
Gideon's return would enable fellow All-MAC mate Addison West to slide back to guard, giving the Broncos a very formidable interior.
Coming into the season, I thought WMU had a real shot to be a sleeper in the MAC in large part due to one of the nation's most experienced rosters that also added some P4 talent and a few starters from lower levels.
The Broncos played Wisconsin super tight in the opener in Madison before a bad break late on a muffed punt return flipped the game on its head, which definitely should give them confidence here. Things didn't go as well in Columbus, but the Broncos were simply overmatched from a talent perspective and were missing a few key starters.
Marshall used three quarterbacks in its opener and then again last week after Stone Earle left with cramps. He seems to be the guy moving forward. While the former North Texas transfer is serviceable, I'm not in love with the surrounding cast.
I project this spread close to a field goal, and the situational spot is ideal.
Notable Nugget
Marshall head coach Charles Huff is just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a home favorite against FBS foes, failing to cover by over six points per game.
My projection: Western Michigan +2.9
Pick: Western Michigan +4 or Better
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Akron +12.5 at Ohio
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Here's your trash pick of the week, so please skip to the next section if you don't like frolicking in dumpsters like myself.
This looks like a great spot to back the Zips, who I wanted to target early in MAC play after a grueling nonconference schedule that included games against Rutgers, South Carolina and Ohio State. As you might imagine, the results weren't pretty, but the Zips never had a chance from a talent gap perspective. Plus, they were friskier than the final scores may indicate.
Now, they get to kick off conference play against a team more in their weight class.
Despite the early-season struggles, I do believe Akron has a sneaky good defense — for MAC standards, of course.
Last year, after getting blown out by Kentucky in Week 3, the Zips allowed fewer than 20 points in regulation in five of their final nine games.
While they only won two games for a third straight season, they fielded a much more competitive team that went 0-3 in overtime.
And even though the skill-position group took a step back, transfer Ben Finley raises the floor a bit at a quarterback position that was a disaster in the second half of 2023.
More importantly, I'm super low on this Ohio squad, which has just been crushed in the portal in recent seasons.
The Bobcats looked feisty in the opener against Syracuse, but the Orange just refused to set the edge against transfer Anthony Tyus, who ran for 200 yards to enable the Bobcats to hang around a bit in a 16-point loss.
They also beat South Alabama at home in Week 2, but the Jaguars were without starting quarterback Gio Lopez, so that win definitely comes with an asterisk.
Since that South Alabama win, things have not progressed well.
In Week 3 against Morgan State, starting quarterback Parker Navarro got benched after throwing three interceptions in the second quarter. He then missed last week's blowout loss to Kentucky with an injury. While he should return for the MAC opener, his health is certainly worth mentioning with a very murky backup quarterback situation.
Ohio didn't play as brutal of a nonconference slate but did face a pair of P4 teams and came away with more injury concerns than the Zips. That could matter here since MAC teams don't generally have great depth — this Bobcats team is no exception.
Lastly, keep in mind that Ohio doesn't have much of a home-field advantage, and these campuses are just a few hours apart. In what I expect to be a lower-scoring game, give me the stinky double-digit dog.
Notable Nugget
Touchdown-plus road underdogs in MAC play have gone 38-21 ATS (64.4%) in games with a total of less than 47, covering by about a field goal per game.
My Projection: Akron +9.8
Pick: Akron +11 or Better
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North Carolina +3 at Duke
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I'm buying low on the Heels after getting embarrassed on their home field by James Madison last week in a game where they allowed a school-record 70 points.
Maybe this team quits on Mack Brown (or he quits on them), but I'd expect a max effort to kick off ACC play after such a humiliating effort.
More importantly, I just can't get to this number even after downgrading UNC significantly for that performance after three straight covers to start the year.
The Heels have turned to their third quarterback of the season in Jacolby Criswell, who transferred back to Chapel Hill after a stop at Arkansas. However, he certainly wasn't the problem last week, throwing for 475 yards while giving the passing attack much more juice than Conner Harrell.
Plus, UNC still boasts one of the nation's best running backs in Omarion Hampton, and I actually think they upgraded their offensive line despite losing four starters around star right guard Willie Lampkin.
This is also a fade of Duke. Yes, the Blue Devils have jumped out to a 4-0 start, but take a closer look at those wins:
- Elon by 23 (led only 13-0 midway through third quarter)
- Northwestern by six (in double overtime after tying it late)
- UConn by five (trailed in fourth quarter)
- MTSU by 28 (Blue Raiders down a handful of starters)
Color me not impressed against a laughable schedule.
Plus, not only did MTSU have multiple starters out on both sides of the ball, but that 28-point margin was very misleading with Duke having only 45 more net yards.
The Blue Devils scored touchdowns on drives of one, 14, 20, and 24 following four Blue Raider turnovers inside their own 25-yard line. Duke had one long touchdown drive the entire game in which it benefited from a roughing the punter call followed by a fumble recovery.
Duke can't run the ball at all, ranking 131st in Rush Success Rate, and UNC won't have to worry about a mobile quarterback this week with Maalik Murphy, who doesn't like to run.
Therefore, it comes down to cleaning up all of the miscommunication and myriad of coverage busts on the back end.
I trust new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins to fix some of those issues this week and really loved all of the quotes I saw from both him and the defensive players, who all took accountability after last Saturday's debacle.
On the season, Duke ranks in the top 10 nationally in turnover margin, while UNC sits in the bottom 10. Manny Diaz has his defensive unit causing Havoc as usual, with the Blue Devils leading the country with a whopping 11.5 tackles for loss per game.
However, they really haven't played a competent offense to date, so don't be surprised if some turnover regression works in the Heels' favor.
I happily took the field goal in a game I make a coin-flip, as I expect an inspired effort from the UNC defense.
Notable Nugget
It doesn't happen often, but road dogs have gone 22-11 ATS (66.7%) after allowing 70 or more points.
My Projection: UNC +0.5
Pick: UNC +3 or Better
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Georgia -2 at Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
In my opinion, the best thing that happened for Kirby Smart before the bye week was barely beating Kentucky in Lexington.
He's a master of using performances like that to motivate his team, which will also be out for revenge for last season's SEC Championship loss that ultimately kept the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff.
Don't think that the quote from Jalen Milroe about Georgia quitting in that game hasn't been plastered everywhere.
I also still have two primary concerns surrounding Alabama that could ultimately burn it here.
- Offensive line
- Cornerback
Getting Kadyn Proctor back healthy helps shore up the left tackle spot, but I have concerns elsewhere.
That could be extremely problematic against a Georgia defensive front that returns its best interior pass rusher in Warren Brinson, who has played only three snaps this season.
I also think potential top overall draft pick Mykel Williams is more than likely to return after he got dinged in the opener. The bye week ultimately helped Georgia in a multitude of ways.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama looks very vulnerable at cornerback with USC transfer Domani Jackson and a host of inexperienced freshmen on the outside. However, the advanced metrics might not show it since TJ Finley and Byrum Brown couldn't hit any wide-open receivers after Tyler Van Dyke got hurt early for Wisconsin.
The superb safety room can only compensate so much for a cornerback room that still needs time to grow.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck should have plenty of opportunities to attack this secondary throughout the night, especially working behind an excellent offensive line that can contain the Bama pass rush — even without Tate Ratledge, as Micah Morris can step right in.
I've also been very impressed with new center Jared Wilson at a position of concern coming into the season after the loss of Sedrick Van Pran to the NFL.
I expect Beck to find success early and often attacking downfield — even if the wide receiver and tight end weapons aren't as elite as in years past.
Meanwhile, the defensive game plan will likely focus on containing Milroe's legs and taking away the deep balls, forcing him to excel in the intermediary area — where he struggles.
Ultimately, I believe Georgia's defense is much more likely to create drive-killing negative plays, which should be the difference.
Remember that Georgia still has the best data point of either team with a blowout win over Clemson in the season opener. That victory has also aged like a fine bourbon, as the Tigers have since demolished both Appalachian State and NC State.
I can see the case for taking Alabama as a home underdog, but I personally believe the Dawgs — who are still my No. 1 power-rated team — should at least be a field-goal favorite here.
As a result, I'll take anything under a field goal in a usual Kirby smash spot even on the road in Tuscaloosa, where Bama hasn't closed as an underdog since 2007 — which, amazingly, is also the last year that Georgia played in T-Town in front of a full crowd (2020 has been the only meeting since).
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 31-16 ATS (66%) against ranked opponents, covering by an average of over four points per game. Among 498 coaches in our Action Labs database, nobody has been more profitable against ranked foes.
That also includes a 25-12 mark (67.6%) against the number as a favorite.
My Projection: Georgia -4
Pick: Georgia -2.5 or Better
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Penn State -17 vs. Illinois
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
This is setting up as a Penn State home blowout.
Yes, Illinois is off to a 4-0 start and is the only team in the country with multiple wins over ranked opponents. However, it could easily be 2-2 on the season. If that were the case, this line would likely be 20-plus.
The Illini were outplayed by Kansas — which hasn't looked great in other games — but benefited from a game-changing pick-six at the end of the first half. Even with that defensive score and a +3 turnover margin, they still had to come from behind in the fourth quarter at home.
They also faced a fourth-quarter deficit at Nebraska in a coin-flip game before ultimately winning in overtime. That game also featured a game-changing interception — this time on an incredible play in the end zone that took a Cornhusker touchdown off the board.
The Illini also didn't look too hot at home against Central Michigan for most of that game despite pulling it out by 21 thanks to a 60-yard field goal and a late touchdown after a failed Chippewa onside kick attempt.
While a bit fortunate overall (+7 turnover margin), Illinois is definitely better than I had anticipated.
Luke Altmyer has played much better this season despite getting a bit lucky with a 10:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 4:4 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio.
However, he has benefited immensely from the late addition of transfer Zakhari Franklin, who gives Illinois a dynamic duo on the outside with him and Pat Bryant.
Those two have been responsible for most of the offense through the air in the RPO-heavy offense since the Illini have struggled to get the ground game going despite a talented crop of backs.
That's in large part due to struggles in the run-blocking department. I don't see that changing this week against the Penn State front.
Do I trust Altmyer to keep it going in Happy Valley on a Saturday night against a Penn State secondary that should be at full strength this weekend? Not really. I expect a critical mistake or two.
The Illini secondary, led by the two great Scotts, has excelled at taking the ball away so far this season. However, Penn State should own the trenches, allowing for new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to work his magic with quarterback Drew Allar.
Keep in mind that Kotelnicki saw this Illinois defense last year when Kansas amassed 539 total yards of offense in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter. I'm sure he also spoke with longtime friend Lance Leipold, who faced this Illinois team again earlier this season.
For what it's worth, favorites of 17-plus in a matchup of two ranked teams have gone 40-23 ATS (63.5%) since 2005, covering by an average of just under five points per game. That includes a mark of 11-3 ATS when the underdog is undefeated like Illinois.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, James Franklin is a silly 71-43 ATS (62.3%) as a favorite, covering by over four points per game. That includes an ATS record of 43-24-2 (64.2%) when laying double-digits.
My Projection: Penn State -19.8
Pick: Penn State -18 or Better
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Stuckey's Other NCAAF Week 5 Quick Hitters
Old Dominion Monarchs
+9.5 vs. Bowling Green
Old Dominion does find itself in a good situational spot and would've made the list if the line was 10 and I had more clarity into the status of starting quarterback Grant Wilson.
The Monarchs, who are still searching for their first win of the season, come off of a bye, while Bowling Green will try to bounce back from a hard-fought, physical loss at Texas A&M for a nonconference matchup before the start of MAC play.
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Over/Under: 35.5
How does Minnesota-Michigan go over, especially if there's weather? That will look like an Army-Navy game.
Colorado Buffaloes
+14.5 vs. UCF
I think UCF smashes Colorado, but the backdoor could be wide open for a Colorado team that throws until the bitter end with their starters, which should have success against a secondary with question marks. At least Gus Malzahn usually doesn't take his foot off the gas in these spots and UCF should move the ball at will. On the surface, it's a pristine situational spot for UCF, which would've made my official weekly list at a price of under two touchdowns. While Colorado had a thrilling win in overtime, the Knights enjoyed a bye week. Plus, the heat and humidity will also only add to UCF's substantial home-field advantage in the Bounce House.
UNLV Rebels
-1.5 vs. Fresno State
UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka left the program earlier this week in a shocking move, but are we sure the drop-off to Hajj-Malik Williams is that significant?
Sure, there's more uncertainty now, but he might actually open up the passing attack and get the uber-talented Ricky White back involved in the offense.
It's not like the Rebels have been winning because of their quarterback play with Sluka completing just 13-of-31 (41.9%) passes for 157 total yards in two games against FBS competition this season.
He did run it 30 times for nearly 200 yards in those two wins over Kansas and Houston, but Williams is also a capable runner.
My only concern is if there's additional news I just don't know about surrounding other players.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
+38.5 vs. Texas
Texas has Oklahoma and Alabama on deck, so how long will the Longhorns keep their starters in this week against Mississippi State?
Maybe this is the week to fade Texas, but the problem is Mississippi State will start a true freshman at quarterback after Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending injury.
We also still don't know if Quinn Ewers will play, which would then make Arch Manning the backup and Texas much harder to fade as a large favorite.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (Live)
-2.5 vs. Cincinnati
Texas Tech will be worth a look live in a game that should have plenty of swings against a Cincinnati team that has certainly blown its fair share of leads under Scott Satterfield, who's just dreadful calling a game with a lead.
Plus, the Bearcat defensive front has worn down in previous games and will be at a major risk of doing so against the Red Raider's uptempo offense.
Wyoming Cowboys
+4 vs. Air Force
Should Air Force really be laying four on the road against an FBS team? Then again, can you really put your hard-earned money on Wyoming?
