College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 6 Bets for Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, Washington vs. Michigan & More

It's time to dive into Saturday's slate for college football Week 6 after a brutal 1-7 Saturday last week. I got some very good numbers, but that doesn't really matter if you can't pick any winners.

There were a couple of bad breaks late, but predominately just dreadful reads. The close ones didn't go my way in September, but almost all of them went my way two seasons ago.

That's just how it goes sometimes in this gig, especially over short sample sizes — but I also have to be better overall. With that said, it's onto the next as always.

Looking ahead to Week 6, I have highlighted my 10 favorite spots I had circled for Saturday in addition to quick thoughts on three other games.

Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.

All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing early in the week. I will always log what I bet on the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for convenience.

My ultimate goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were thinking about by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.

With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 6.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 11-20-1 (35.5%)
• Overall: 110-90-2 (55.0%)

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Wake Forest +5.5
	4 p.m.	Under 41.5
	4 p.m.	West Virginia +4.5
	4 p.m.	Vanderbilt +24
	6:30 p.m.	Colorado State +13
	7:30 p.m.	Arkansas +14
	7:30 p.m.	Washington -2.5
	7:30 p.m.	Minnesota +9
	8 p.m.	Georgia Tech -7.5
	10:30 p.m.	California +11

Wake Forest +5.5 at NC State

12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

I'm still waiting on some injury news, which I'll touch on shortly, but I wanted to write about something in the noon slate since I didn't have anything else circled.

I don't know how many more times NC State has to prove it's not a good football team.

Yes, the Wolfpack beat Northern Illinois by seven at home last week, but the Wolfpack amassed only 176 total yards of offense. They were outgained by over 100 total yards but still pulled out a victory due to a +4 turnover margin.

For reference, Buffalo's inept offense had a better output on the road the week prior against the Huskies.

Even in a pair of earlier home games against Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina, NC State trailed going into the fourth quarter. That same Louisiana Tech team just lost at FIU (which lost to Monmouth the week prior), lost to Tulsa at home, and barely beat Nicholls State in its home opener.

And it's not like WCU has been an FCS juggernaut this season with only one win by seven over Elon. Throw in complete blowout losses against Clemson and Tennessee, and there aren't really any promising data points for the Pack.

While Wake Forest certainly hasn't been lighting the world on fire, the Demon Deacons have been extremely unlucky in a pair of losses by a combined four points.

Against Louisiana, they missed a potential game-tying kick in the final seconds, which came a week after blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead to Virginia in a game they outgained the Hoos by over 100 yards (544-430).

I had this spot circled, but the spread currently sits in a dead range, so I'm going to wait for now since I do want to get some more injury intel on two of Wake's best offensive players: running back Demond Claiborne and wide receiver Donovan Greene, who has been dealing with a lingering leg injury that has limited his snap count the past two weeks.

When healthy, Greene is as dynamic as any receiver in the ACC, as he showed against Virginia earlier this season with an 11 catch, 166-yard performance.

Meanwhile, Claiborne left last week's game in a cart with what was initially reported as a dislocated knee but somehow remarkably returned in the second half and even ran for a long touchdown before leaving the game again with knee swelling.

I'd argue Wake Forest will have the most trustworthy unit on the field with its offense, which has actually been pretty productive under transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He seems extremely comfortable running the slow-developing mesh point RPO scheme, and there's ample skill-position talent to work with at full strength.

Admittedly, the Wake Forest defense is horrendous, but I'm not sure NC State can fully take advantage with freshman quarterback CJ Bailey.

He just doesn't seem fully ready to take off at this level after playing in high school last year with one of the most dominant wide receiver rooms (including Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith) you'll ever find at that level.

Lastly, I do have my concerns about NC State's potential massive special teams advantage, but I just don't think much separates these two clubs at the moment.

I think you get a max effort from Wake with its season on the brink after an unlucky 1-3 start. Historically, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson gets the most out of his team in these spots.

Projection: Wake Forest +3.2

Pick: Wake Forest +4.5 or Better · (Waiting on injuries; follow along in Action App for confirmation)

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Rutgers vs. Nebraska Under 41.5

4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

I had Nebraska circled and played the Huskers -6.5 earlier in the week after Rutgers had one of the most improbable wins of the season against Washington in a game where the Huskies just shot themselves in the foot over and over again.

Not only did they miss three field goals, they also ran onto the field after a blocked field goal, which resulted in a Rutgers first down and subsequent touchdown.

However, I bought most back (go Corn by seven) after seeing the late-week weather forecast, which as of Thursday (it could change), calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph with gusts up to 40 miles per hour.

That will obviously make it much more difficult for both passing attacks and kicking games. Historically, in those conditions, unders over a sample size of over 1,000 games have hit at a 57% clip — and that's against the closing total, which usually comes way down in the market.

Therefore, I wanted to highlight the under I bet in this matchup in case you were exploring a potential play there.

Due to injuries at linebacker, the Rutgers run defense has major issues. The Scarlet Knights rank outside the top 100 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.

However, in these conditions, they can simply load the box since it will be extremely difficult to connect on anything downfield. Plus, the Nebraska rushing attack hasn't had much explosiveness this season, which is an area Rutgers has really struggled to defend.

College Football Early Bets for Pitt vs. UNC, Minnesota vs. USC, MoreRead now

Meanwhile, Rutgers will likely feed stud running back Kyle Monangai, but he'll be running right into the teeth of the Nebraska defense, which boasts a dominant defensive front. The Huskers can also load the box in these conditions, especially against a quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis, who isn't the most threatening downfield passer.

Virginia Tech shut down Monangai (26 carries, 84 yards) by employing that approach in Blacksburg. However, Rutgers took advantage with some shot plays over the top, but that won't be as easy in these conditions.

The Nebraska defense also has some overdue positive late-down regression coming its way.

Both offenses should play at a very slow tempo with a heavy focus on ball control and winning the field-position battle, which both head coaches have harped on.

I'd also expect Matt Rhule and Greg Schiano to take a conservative approach (assuming the game isn't out of hand) on things like fourth-down decisions near midfield.

Hopefully, there aren't any short fields after turnovers and the defenses can make a few fourth-down stops if either team elects to forego field goal attempts in the wind — and judging by Nebraska's kicking woes last week at Purdue, that could very well be the case.

In summary, I ended up playing Nebraska -6.5, Rutgers +7 and under 41.5.

Projection: Nebraska -8.2

Pick: Under 41 or Better · Keep an eye on forecast, which could change

West Virginia +4.5 at Oklahoma State

4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

Oklahoma State is reeling.

After losing at home to Utah without Cam Rising — which looks worse now after the Utes lost by double digits at home (a rarity) to Arizona — the Pokes got dominated at Kansas State by 22.

Even with Ollie Gordon II, the run game can't get going against loaded boxes (131st in Rush Success Rate), and Alan Bowman can't consistently make secondaries pay.

While the Cowboys can't get their run game going, their opponents have had no issues getting whatever they wanted on the ground. Just take a look at what Utah and Kansas State have done the past two weeks even with quarterbacks who don't scare defenses a ton in the passing department:

• Utah: 51 carries for 250 yards
• Kansas State: 34 carries for 300 yards

In those two games, the two lead backs had a combined 40 attempts for 369 yards. That's over nine yards per attempt.

Also, don't forget Arkansas put up over 600 yards of offense in an unlucky loss in Stillwater earlier last month. On the season, Oklahoma State ranks outside the top 90 nationally in EPA per Rush.

Well, guess who comes to town this week? One of the heaviest rushing attacks in the entire country that ranks in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate.

The Mountaineers have also had one of the most explosive offenses in the country, which doesn't bode well for an Oklahoma State stop unit that has struggled in that area.

While the West Virginia run defense has been stout, the secondary has struggled immensely. As a result, Bowman should have a nice day through the air with a solid group of weapons on the outside. However, I just don't see Oklahoma State really slowing down this West Virginia rushing attack.

Without any turnovers or flukes, this looks like the last team with the ball wins, so I gladly took the 4.5 points.

Lastly, the Pokes will play their sixth straight game to start the season, so fatigue becomes a concern, especially on defense after the past exhausting efforts.

It's also worth noting that unit already lost their best player in Collin Oliver and may be down one of their next best in linebacker Nick Martin, who left last week with an injury and was seen on crutches leaving practice earlier this week.

That would be another massive blow to a defense that already had holes. Conversely, West Virginia comes in fresh off a bye, which allowed it to get much healthier across the board.

It does feel like I'm selling a bit low on Oklahoma State after two straight losses, which gives me a bit of pause. However, I fancy the matchup and spot for WVU. Plus, I show value in the number.

Projection: West Virginia +2.9

Pick: West Virginia +4 or Better

Vanderbilt +24 vs. Alabama

4 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

It's hard to imagine Alabama not coming out flat for an afternoon kick against Vanderbilt after that 60-minute thriller against Georgia. That's just human nature.

And while Alabama went for an extended roller coaster ride in Tuscaloosa last week, Vanderbilt enjoyed an early-season bye week, which I believe are even more beneficial for teams that dealt with so much change in the offseason.

I'd expect a few more wrinkles from a very good offensive staff that can potentially exploit a young Alabama secondary, which has been vulnerable to coverage busts throughout the early season.

Additionally, I wanted to target the Commodores as a big underdog all season due to their style of play that's conducive to shortening games, making it harder for favorites to build big margins with fewer possessions.

I haven't gotten much right this season in this weekly piece outside of Vanderbilt games. True to its service academy-esque style, Vandy has covered with ease as a double-digit favorite twice and lost outright as a double-digit favorite in its three games against FBS competition.

And don't take my word for it. Head coach Clark Lea said this week he ideally wants this game to have fewer than 10 possessions! That's obviously music to the ears of anybody taking a three-plus touchdown pooch.

We already saw Vanderbilt go toe-to-toe with another SEC team on the road in an overtime loss at Missouri in addition to a home upset over Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Diego Pavia also went into Auburn last year and won outright as an even bigger underdog with an even more inferior squad.

And while Alabama might be on a different plane, this is still a big number to cover in a brutal situational spot with potentially limited possessions.

Doubting Kalen DeBoer has been a fool's errand in the past, so maybe I'll look like the fool again when Bama comes out fully focused and exploits a very vulnerable cornerback group with Ryan Williams and company. It certainly wouldn't be the first or last time I look witless, but I had to take the 24 here.

Projection: Alabama -22.3

Pick: Vanderbilt +24 or Better

Colorado State +13 at Oregon State

6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

Both teams come off a bye ahead of this matchup, but I believe that will better serve Colorado State.

The Rams should get a number of key players back healthy, including star wide receiver Tory Horton, who missed last game and was extremely limited against Colorado.

He's everything to the offense, and I'm not sure the Beavers have anybody who can contain him.

The Rams will also likely be the healthiest on defense they've been all season, especially along the defensive line, where they really could use a boost.

From a matchup perspective, Oregon State is a run-heavy offense, which plays into the strength of a Colorado State defense that ranks in the top 40 nationally in EPA per Rush.

While the safeties are rock solid, the cornerback room leaves a lot to be desired — but the Beavers don't really have the chops to take full advantage through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado State should have success getting Avery Morrow going on the ground against a very suspect Beaver run defense, which even allowed Purdue to run for 263 yards at nearly nine yards per pop. That, in turn, should open up some downfield shots for Horton and friends.

Keep in mind that two weeks ago, the market faded Oregon State into oblivion against Purdue. And while the Beavers took care of business in that one, that line closed close to a PK against an opponent I now have power-rated similarly to Colorado State.

I happily took the points here against an Oregon State team that doesn't profile as a very good double-digit favorite.

Projection: Colorado State +10.2

Pick: Colorado State +11.5 or Better

Arkansas +14 vs. Tennessee

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Please skip to the next section because I clearly haven't learned my lesson when it comes to fading the Vols, which I have done twice this season unsuccessfully.

I'm a stubborn man, but this line just came out too high even after accounting for the fact that Tennessee will benefit from a bye week and potentially better health.

I've obviously been impressed with Tennessee, which has easily covered every game in dominant fashion. However, despite my previous transgressions, it's worth noting how underwhelming Oklahoma and NC State (its two best wins) have looked in their other games.

I wrote about NC State earlier, and Oklahoma has still not found any semblance of an offense — and even its defense got absolutely gashed by Auburn last week in a game it was outgained 482-291.

This will also likely be the first real test for a Tennessee secondary that essentially started from scratch after a mass exodus of talent in the offseason.

Oklahoma couldn't block Tennessee and ended up losing its most important receiver early in the game from a bunch that was already decimated by injury, while NC State still hasn't been able to complete a forward pass all season.

Yet, still, Tennessee ranks outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate despite not facing a serious test.

Plus, not a single Vols opponent has had any semblance of a rushing attack, either. That's certainly not the case with the Hogs, who rank in the top five nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.

We did see the Sooners have some success late with a mobile quarterback after benching Jackson Arnold, so the legs of Taylen Green could become an important factor against the vaunted Tennessee defensive line.

It's absolutely paramount to get the ground game going against Tennessee to prevent the Vols from pinning their ears back on known passing downs, especially since Arkansas' backs struggle in pass protection.

Defensively, Arkansas has certainly faced one of the nation's toughest schedules to date with games against Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Auburn — all of which came away from home. It was fortunate to beat Auburn but really outplayed both Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in a pair of unlucky defeats due to costly mistakes.

My biggest takeaway was how good the rush defense performed, which is always a crucial part of slowing down the high-flying Tennessee offense. That's essentially how Oklahoma's defense kept it in the game for so long despite an absolutely anemic offensive output.

And while Nico Iamaleava is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football, he's still super inexperienced and hasn't been as sharp as his team's final scores may indicate with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws against the three FBS foes he's faced.

Arkansas does have a sturdy safety duo, but it's an underwhelming cornerback group that includes former Vol Doneiko Slaughter, which is an interesting subplot to watch.

I do expect Tennessee to have both starting tackles, but that's also a situation worth monitoring since it does lack quality depth up front.

Green is extremely erratic and inaccurate, so he could just have a completely off day, but Arkansas is the first opponent Tennessee will face with the ability to hit explosive plays with the likes of Ja'Quinden Jackson and Andrew Armstrong.

Maybe Tennessee is as elite as it has looked, or maybe this is another Ole Miss situation. We saw the Rebels look unstoppable through four games with four easy covers before losing outright as more than a two-touchdown favorite at home against Kentucky.

I do want a 14 here, though, with the underdog king, Sam Pittman.

Projection: Arkansas +11.7

Pick: Waiting for Arkansas +14 (-115 or Better)

Washington -2.5 vs. Michigan

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC

This is a tough spot for Michigan, which will head out west for its first road game of the season against a team that still has a few holdover pieces who will be out for National Championship revenge.

If you look under the hood, Washington has been super impressive despite all of the offseason roster turnover under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who I'm a huge fan of.

The Huskies rank in the top 15 nationally on both sides of the ball in many advanced metrics.

They were the superior team in both losses (97% postgame win expectancy against Rutgers) but were done in by penalties (16 for 135 against Wazzu), special teams mistakes and red-zone woes.

On a down-to-down basis, the offense has looked like a very clean operation with great balance between running back Jonah Coleman and the talented wide receiver tandem of Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston.

Transfer quarterback Will Rogers looks extremely comfortable in the pocket and has plenty of big-game experience to draw from.

Minnesota also had success going with tempo late in the game, which neutralized Michigan's dominant defensive line. I'm sure Washington is fully aware.

While Washington has enjoyed great balance on offense, the same can't be said for Michigan, which made a quarterback change to Alex Orji two games ago. That has essentially completely neutered an already non-existent passing attack.

The Wolverines somehow upset USC with just 32 passing yards thanks to a dominant ground game in an ideal situational spot.

However, a week later against Minnesota, which had film on Michigan's approach with Orji running the show, it couldn't get its ground game going against a defense that Iowa's Kaleb Johnson gashed the week prior. Michigan averaged only 3.6 yards per carry and actually got outgained 296-241.

Yes, it held on for a second-straight 27-24 home victory, but the Maize and Blue benefited from touchdown drives of 11 and 16 yards following Minnesota mistakes. The Gophers also missed a field goal and ultimately got robbed by a blown call on a recovered onside kick late in the game.

While Washington's run defense hasn't been as sturdy as its coverage on the back end, defensive coordinator Steve Belichick should have no issues drawing up a game plan to stop a completely one-dimensional attack with absolutely no concerns about what the Wolverines can accomplish through the air.

Expect a completely stacked box throughout.

Washington's kicker issues do concern me, and it needs to clean up the penalties and red-zone execution, but I like the Huskies to exact revenge on the one-dimensional Wolverines.

Projection: Washington -3.6

Pick: Washington -2.5 or Better · I personally played the ML here in what should be a lower-scoring game

Minnesota +9 vs. USC

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

On the surface, this is a tricky situational spot for USC. After going from Michigan back home to face Wisconsin, the Trojans will head back out east to take on Minnesota one week before hosting Penn State.

It's also worth noting that the weather forecast calls for impactful winds (which I classify as anything over 15 mph), which will have a much more adverse impact on the Trojans, who have the more explosive passing attack.

Minnesota's pass defense does grade out as elite so far, but it has yet to face a competent aerial attack. With that said, I did expect the explosive play rate allowed to drop significantly this season in a more simplified scheme under new coordinator Corey Hetherman.

On the other side of the ball, I think there's a path to success for the Gopher offense. USC's defense has clearly improved by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of an upgraded staff, but it's still not an elite unit by any stretch.

The Trojans have done a tremendous job of limiting explosive passes, but that doesn't really matter against Minnesota, which should find success with its short passing attack under quarterback Max Brosmer — an area where USC has been vulnerable (outside the top-90 in Pass Success Rate).

The slow-paced Gophers can also copy Michigan's approach and lean on a now healthy Darius Taylor at running back against a USC defensive front that can be pushed around (sub-20th percentile in Line Yards and Stuff Rate).

USC has also been quite fortunate on late downs relative to its much more predictive early down data, so a correction could be coming in that department.

Brosmer has looked more comfortable running the show of late and the skill-position pieces are now healthy, so this is an offense that I expect to trend up as the season progresses.

They really started to click in the second half of that Michigan game and even excelled using more tempo, which could be on the table again if they're trailing.

This matchup will also feel like a major breather after facing the defenses of Iowa and Michigan in back-to-back weeks.

Give me the slow-paced, running dog at home in a great spot catching over a touchdown. And don't be surprised if Minnesota gets a friendly whistle after the Big Ten officials cost it last week at Michigan.

Projection: Minnesota +7

Pick: Minnesota +8.5 or Better

Georgia Tech -7.5 vs. Duke

8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network

Duke is as fraudulent of a 5-0 team as you'll ever see. Here are the Blue Devils' victories so far:

• Elon by 23 (led only 13-0 midway through third quarter)
• Northwestern by six (in double overtime after tying it late)
• UConn by five (trailed in fourth quarter)
• MTSU by 28 (Blue Raiders without many starters; misleading final as well)
• UNC by one (trailed 20-0 in second half)

Plus, while the Blue Devils had to exhaust plenty of energy in an epic late comeback against their in-state rival in the battle for the Victory Bell, Georgia Tech enjoyed a much-needed bye week after some tough travel that began with a trip to Ireland to start the season. From a rest and preparation perspective, Tech has a major edge here.

Duke will also be stepping up in class against a Georgia Tech team that should come out salty after losing a game against Louisville it really gave away with mistakes.

That effort on the road in Louisville also really aged well after what we saw from the Cardinals offense against Notre Dame.

Duke can't run the ball efficiently and won't be able to do so against Georgia Tech. That will leave most of the work to quarterback Maalik Murphy, who just isn't accurate enough to take advantage of Georgia Tech's primary weakness in the secondary.

The Duke defense has played extremely well and been extremely Havoc-minded as you'd expect under Manny Diaz, but who has it faced?

Expect Buster Faulkner — one of the best offensive coordinators in college football — to have an extremely sharp game plan out of the bye to exploit Duke's aggressiveness by using plenty of misdirection.

Quarterback Haynes King has been incredible so far this season for the Ramblin' Wreck, and I expect that to continue on Saturday in Atlanta.

Duke could easily be 3-2 or even 2-3 on the season in which case this line would in all likelihood be sitting at 10 or more.

Projection: Georgia Tech -10.4

Pick: Georgia Tech -8.5 or Better

California +11 vs. Miami

10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

This is not the easiest spot for Miami, coming off a thrilling last-second win over Virginia Tech and now having to travel all the way across the country to take on a feisty Cal team that will be coming off of a bye week.

That off-time should serve the Bears well, as they dealt with as many injuries as any team in the country in the month of September.

Expect them to come into this one much healthier with the return of starting guard Sioape Vatikani and nickelback Matthew Littlejohn, who is extremely critical in this particular matchup.

Star running back Jaydn Ott should also now be fully healthy, and there's even a chance one or both of their projected starting wide receivers makes their season debut in Tobias Merriweather and Kyion Grayes, who transferred in from Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively.

I'm still fairly stunned Cal pulled off a road upset earlier this season at Auburn given the myriad of missing starters.

While Miami has looked impressive to start the season, its results haven't aged particularly well. The victory over South Florida (which was close through three quarters) doesn't look as strong after what the Bulls did at Tulane last week.

Florida has been a mess all season, and Ball State gave up 63 to James Madison last week. Then, last Friday night, Virginia Tech finally showed signs of life after looking lost against Vanderbilt, Marshall and Old Dominion to start the season.

This Miami team still has discipline issues, and I don't think it'll continue its current record-setting late-down pace on offense.

Cam Ward dazzled over the first four weeks, but he's always been up-and-down throughout his career, so you never know when you'll get a head-scratching performance like the one we saw last week against the Hokies.

Cal's offensive line (and kicking situation) does scare me a bit, especially since Miami will likely get defensive end Rueben Bain back.

However, I expect the Bears to come out hot with a much healthier roster for their first-ever ACC home game with College GameDay in town for the first time ever.

Projection: Cal +9.3

Pick: Cal +10.5 or Better

Stuckey's Other NCAAF Week 6 Musings

UTEP +10.5

vs. Sam Houston

Bonus Thursday night situational spot with UTEP +10.5 at home after a bye against Sam Houston, which will travel to El Paso on a short week after a thrilling last-second, one-point upset win over Texas State.

It was a super impressive victory, but the Bobcats certainly helped out with missed field goals and fourth-down fails in the second half that enabled SHSU to come back from 18 points down.

The Miners should especially benefit from that extended practice time after extreme roster and staff turnover in the offseason.

They also made a quarterback change by going back to Cade McConnell, who finished last year as the starter. He really provided a spark after relieving Skyler Locklear at Colorado State before the bye, and I do think he's the much better option under center.

I expect a spirited effort from the winless home team out of the bye with an upgrade at quarterback and a ground game that could finally get going against the Bearkats.

Iowa vs. Ohio State

Under 45.5

Ohio State will host Iowa on Saturday, but I'm not sure it wants to show too much with Oregon on deck. I think the Buckeyes have been keeping it super vanilla so far this season under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and I'd expect that to continue here if they can build a comfortable lead.

While improved under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, I can't see the Iowa offense doing much, assuming Ohio State just loads the box to take away the explosive Kaleb Johnson, who's averaging over eight yards per carry on the season.

This looks like an under to me, especially live if Ohio State builds margin.

Baylor vs. Iowa State

Under 45

I like the under in Ames between Iowa State and Baylor.

The Bears can't run the ball (outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate and EPA) and won't be able to throw on the Iowa State secondary, especially in potentially windy conditions.

The Clones excel at limiting explosives, which has really been the only path to offense for the Bears.

Meanwhile, the Baylor defense has quietly played well this season with head coach Dave Aranda taking over that unit in the offseason. It can hold its own against the Cyclone offense.

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