It's time to dive into the slate for college football Week 4.
Just like the past two seasons, I'll share my favorite Saturday spots on each week's college football slate.
Looking ahead to Week 4, I have highlighted my nine favorite Saturday spots I had circled, along with some quick thoughts on three other matchups.
Last week was an abject disaster due to a couple of late bad breaks (Kennesaw State and CMU) but more so a result of four horrendous reads. That's how you get a 1-6 week.
Please don't assume a bad week guarantees a bounce back this week. Ideally, over a large enough sample size, I'd like to hit 55% on these, so I'm still ahead of that pace. I will have horrid weeks, months and even losing seasons. That's just the nature of the beast; a few net bad bounces each week can turn a season sour.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. My ultimate goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were thinking about by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
As we get more data points throughout the season, the breakdowns will become more in-depth from a matchup perspective.
To start the season, I'm mainly looking to exploit market overreactions and play certain situational spots. I'm really still learning a lot about all of these teams with such heavy roster turnover in the new landscape of college football.
I won't really fully lean into advanced metric profiles until we get another week of data since so many of these new teams don't have many meaningful data points with games against FCS competition not being overly useful.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 4.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 4-9 (30.8%)
- Overall: 103-79-1 (56.6%)
College Football Week 4 Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Louisiana +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Buffalo +14 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Navy +10 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas Tech -3 |
  | 4:15 p.m. | Vanderbilt +21 |
  | 7 p.m. | USF +17.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Western Kentucky +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Oklahoma +7.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Louisiana-Monroe +45 |
Louisiana +3.5 vs. Tulane
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This is probably the best pure situational spot on the board.
While the Ragin' Cajuns will benefit from coming off of a bye week, Tulane will hit the highway for a second straight road game after playing a pair of Power 4 conference opponents in back-to-back weeks in Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Both of those contests were super physical and close throughout, so I wouldn't be shocked if Tulane came about a little flat and wore down late.
The Green Wave also have a pretty big home game on deck against South Florida to kick off conference play.
It's difficult to really gauge this 2024 Louisiana team due to a lack of quality data points after starting the season with games against Kennesaw State and Grambling. However, it did at least take care of business with relative ease in both victories.
More importantly, quarterback Ben Woolridge stayed healthy, which has been an issue in the past.
While I didn't learn much against two significantly inferior opponents, unlike many teams across FBS, Louisiana was a known commodity coming into 2024 with a top-15 returning production rank nationally.
It did lose four impact players in left tackle Nathan Thomas (seventh-round draft pick), wide receiver Peter LeBlanc (signed with Bears as UDFA), linebacker Kendre Gant (transferred to Houston) and quarterback Zeon Chriss (also transferred to Houston after taking over as the starter last season due to injuries).
However, the rest of the roster essentially returned intact.
I also really fancied the hiring of new defensive coordinator Jim Salgado, who should help improve an experienced secondary that had coverage issues last season.
Conversely, Tulane came into the season with extreme roster and staff turnover, which made the Green Wave trickier to rate.
New quarterback Darian Mensah has opened up some eyes through three games, and the team did exceed my expectations against Kansas State and even Oklahoma to an extent.
However, the offensive line and secondary appear to have taken a step back after mass attrition at both position groups. They also still lack the same edge-rushing prowess we saw from Devean Deal (transferred to TCU), Keith Cooper Jr. (transferred to Houston) and Darius Hodges (drafted by Panthers).
This nonconference matchup does have an interesting wrinkle worth noting. New Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has plenty of familiarity with Louisiana (and vice versa) since he and his coordinators held the same positions at Sun Belt foe Troy in 2022 and 2023.
That may give a slight edge to Tulane since I rate Sumrall as the superior coach, but I can't pass up this spot or price in a game I project closer to a PK even after upgrading Tulane's power rating a few points through three weeks while keeping Louisiana relatively stable.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, no team has had more ATS success in home games than Tulane at 38-20-1 (65.5%). However, the Green Wave have gone exactly .500 (26-26) against the number away from Yulman Stadium over that span.
Pick: Louisiana +3 or Better
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Buffalo +14 at Northern Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
A little post-Notre Dame market inflation? I believe so.
Coming into the season, I wasn't very high on Buffalo, but new head coach Pete Lembo (who has won in the MAC before) looks like a massive upgrade over Maurice Linguist, who I had rated as one of the worst head coaches in FBS last season.
It's a much cleaner operation this season, and he will definitely clean up a special teams unit that has been a major area of weakness in recent seasons.
Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has fared better as a passer than I could've ever imagined — although the offense is still extremely limited across the board. It's just not a very talent-rich group.
The defensive line remains a major question with a severe lack of size, which concerns me a bit against NIU's offensive line and rushing attack. However, the secondary has talent, and linebackers Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock clean everything up at the second level.
The Huskies are a real contender in the MAC, but how will they handle coming off their biggest win in program history?
They did at least have a bye week following that upset victory in South Bend, but maybe they're peaking ahead a bit to next week in what now looks like a much more winnable game against NC State, which would really ramp up the discussion around NIU's chances of grabbing the Group of Five's College Football Playoff berth.
I primarily just show value in this number in a spot where NIU could get caught feeling itself a bit too much.
Additionally, the Huskies are an extremely slow rush-heavy offense, which makes them much more intriguing as an underdog than a favorite laying two touchdowns.
Plus, it's not like the MAC has massive home-field advantages. Home favorites in conference play have cashed at just a 45% clip since 2005.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS competition, NIU head coach Thomas Hammock is just 4-16 ATS (20%) as a favorite, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game on average. That includes a 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
Pick: Buffalo +14 or Better
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Navy +10 vs. Memphis
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is a tough spot for Memphis after pulling off a huge upset win on the road at Florida State (although, should we even call beating the Noles an upset anymore?). That victory could prove paramount for its College Football Playoff chances.
Now, the Tigers must stay focused for a second straight road game against a Navy team that will benefit from coming off of a bye week.
I doubt Ryan Silverfield spent any time preparing for Navy's triple-option attack (with some new wrinkles) prior to the Florida State game.
Plus, the Midshipmen have had extra time to install and work on their modified option attack under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
Catching double digits with a service academy is always worth a look — especially in a superb situational spot — since they will almost always play in games with limited possessions. That makes it a much more arduous task for favorites to build bigger margins.
Admittedly, I was hoping to get 14 or more here (service academies are 60% ATS historically when catching 14-plus), but this was a fairly sharp opener that got hit early in the week after a service release.
I've had this spot circled since the summer, so it made the cut, but I would need double digits to get involved and will look for a 14 or better live.
And it's not like I don't have concerns about this particular matchup.
The Memphis defense has graded out in the 90th percentile or better in both Stuff Rate and Line Yards — two key categories to look at when analyzing how a defense will fare against Navy's offense.
The Tigers have also been dominant on early downs, and forcing Navy into third-and-long situations is usually a death sentence for the Mids.
Additionally, Navy has only played Bucknell and Temple so far this season, which aren't the best data points in terms of evaluating how it'll fare against a high-powered offense.
Can the secondary actually contain Seth Henigan and an excellent set of wide receivers? Last year, the Midshipmen got beat handily by Notre Dame, South Florida and SMU — allowing an average of over 48 points per game in losses by 45, 39 and 14.
Most of their wins or close games came against quarterbacks who could not or did not pass (they even lost by 14 to EJ Warner and Temple) except for their one matchup with Memphis on the road in a four-point 28-24 loss.
The Navy secondary actually fared OK in that one, but that was the exception to the rule when it came to facing competent passing attacks in 2023. Navy actually outgained Memphis, 432-408, thanks to a rushing attack that averaged six yards a pop on 50 attempts.
Can it replicate that success and eat up the clock against an improved Memphis front? We'll find out in Annapolis on Saturday afternoon, but the situational spot couldn't be any better.
Notable Nugget
Navy is the most profitable underdog in college football since 2005 at 65-41-4 (61.3%).
Pick: Navy +10 or Better (smaller) · +14 or Better Live is Preferred
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Texas Tech -3 vs. Arizona State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
Arizona State is significantly improved this season, as evidenced by its 3-0 start.
After a disastrous injury situation in 2023, things were bound to improve with better health alone. Now it's clear that head coach Kenny Dillingham has this program trending in the right direction.
However, while the start has been impressive, let's take a closer look at who the Sun Devils have beaten to start the season:
- Mississippi State (just got blown out at home vs. Toledo)
- Wyoming (0-3 with a home loss to FCS Idaho and yet to cover a game)
- Texas State
Two of those victories came by one possession, and the first two look much less impressive when examining other results.
It also hasn't hurt that the Sun Devils have gone 5-of-6 on fourth down and own a +6 turnover margin with three defensive scores through just three games.
Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has provided a spark at quarterback after a disastrous season under center for the Sun Devils.
Leavitt remains limited as a passer (107th EPA per Dropback), which should serve as a welcome relief for a Texas Tech secondary that has really struggled against opposing pass attacks. Even Abilene Christian's Maverick McIvor threw for over 500 yards against the Red Raiders in Week 1.
While the aerial attack won't overwhelm opponents, Leavitt can extend plays and create with his legs, while Cam Skattebo runs as hard as any back in the country.
Leavitt's legs are a particular concern against a Tech defense that allowed Washington State quarterback John Mateer to run for nearly 200 yards in a Week 2 loss in Pullman. However, that experience should serve as a valuable tune-up for this one with the focus all week being on a more contained pass rush.
Texas Tech didn't get off to a promising start this season with a one-point win over Abilene Christian at home in Week 1 followed by a blowout loss at Washington State.
However, that 21-point loss to the Cougars was an extremely misleading final score and doesn't look as bad after Wazzu upset rival Washington last week. The Red Raiders actually finished with 75 more net yards but were done in by four turnovers (-3 margin) and a 1-for-5 performance on fourth down while Washington State went 2-of-3.
It's worth noting that Texas Tech games will usually have plenty of fourth-down variance under head coach Joey McGuire, so let's hope TTU's due for a few conversions after a slow start to the season.
Most importantly, Texas Tech has dealt with as many injuries as any team in the country to start the season.
Star running back Tahj Brooks didn't suit up in Pullman, and four more starters left with an injury over the course of that contest, including the entire left side of the offensive line.
While starting left guard Vinny Sciury was lost for the season, the Red Raiders should get left tackle Sterling Porcher back on Saturday.
The defense has also dealt with a plethora of health issues but should be closer to full strength this week (despite still being without Charles Esters III), assuming their top two defensive backs in safety C.J. Baskerville and cornerback Bralyn Lux do go.
Both are listed as questionable but did play last week when Tech had its best performance of the season by far in a 66-21 rout of North Texas.
Quarterback Behren Morton, who struggled with injuries throughout last season, finally looks 100% healthy with 974 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through three games. That's a massive development for this explosive Zach Kittley offense, which I think now has a better overall group of pass-catchers.
It could be a long day for an Arizona State secondary that ranks 97th in Defensive Passing Success Rate in 2024.
Give me the better quarterback at home laying only a field goal — the same price Texas State closed at last week at home vs. ASU.
For reference, coming into the season, I had Texas Tech power rated about a touchdown better than the Bobcats, who really should've beaten the Sun Devils if not for some costly turnovers and penalties.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 years, Texas Tech is the most profitable home favorite in FBS with an overall ATS record of 22-11-1 (66.7%).
Pick: Texas Tech -3 or Better
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Vanderbilt +21 at Missouri
4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
This is a good buy-low spot on Vanderbilt after an outright loss at Georgia State as more than a touchdown favorite. Plus, Missouri might be a bit flat after a hard-fought win over a ranked opponent with a bye on deck.
Most importantly, anytime you can get Vanderbilt at a big price this season, the Commodores will warrant a look since they profile similar to a service academy.
They will try their hardest to slow this game down and limit the overall number of possessions.
Admittedly, I'm just a bit worried about the secondary holding up against Missouri's passing attack. The Tigers also had a tremendous defensive game plan to contain Thomas Castellanos' legs last week against Boston College, which they can carry right over to Saturday against quarterback Diego Pavia.
However, I still have questions about Missouri's defense, which lost a ton of talent from last year's squad.
Notable Nugget
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is 7-1 ATS over the past two seasons as an underdog in games that he starts and finishes.
Pick: Vanderbilt +21 or Better
Note: I'm going to be greedy and hope to get better than three touchdowns pregame or live.
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USF +17.5 vs. Miami
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
The Hurricanes are the real deal. They have an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball that will enable them to compete with any team in the country if they make it to the College Football Playoff.
However, I also believe we've reached the peak of the market on Miami.
Don't forget that everybody fell in love with Mario Cristobal's bunch last year, too, after a 4-0 start that included a few blowouts over inferior opponents and a big win against Texas A&M.
Then, the Canes lost outright to Georgia Tech in a similar price range as this game.
That sounds familiar to the start Miami has enjoyed in 2024 with a pantsing of Florida and two laughers against Ball State and Florida A&M.
While I'm not saying South Florida will win this game outright, the Bulls can at least keep this one competitive in what should be a pretty raucous environment in Tampa.
Plus, you know a lot of the USF kids from Florida want this one a little more — similar to what we saw with NIU against Notre Dame in Week 2.
USF has fared well against Power 4 competition over the past two seasons under head coach Alex Golesh, which includes a pair of matchups with Alabama and a drubbing of Syracuse in a bowl game. That bodes well for this particular matchup.
The Bulls also boast an explosive passing attack capable of exploiting Miami's primary weakness on paper in its secondary, which has yet to be fully tested this season.
Keep in mind that dominant win over Florida doesn't look as impressive after what we saw Texas A&M do to the Gators in the Swamp last Saturday.
The Bulls struggled to find their timing in the passing attack to start the season, but things really started to click as the game went on last week against Southern Miss.
Quarterback Byrum Brown also provides a nice floor with his rushing ability. The Bulls still have holes on their defense, but it looks to be an improved unit with more experience in addition to a few transfers who have seemingly fit in well.
Notable Nugget
Perfect ATS teams laying two touchdowns or more in their fourth game have covered less than 40% of the time historically. Additionally, Mario Cristobal is just 8-16 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite of 14-plus points.
Pick: USF +17 or Better
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Western Kentucky +3 vs. Toledo
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Toledo burned me last week at Mississippi State, which ended up being one of the worst wagers I've placed in years. I'm really not sure what happened to the Bulldogs last week. Maybe they were still hungover from the heat in Tempe.
While the Rockets looked flawless in Starkville, they're still a team that struggled mightily the week prior against UMass. They also allowed a bad Duquesne team that could barely get a first down against Boston College to amass almost 300 yards in Week 1.
Coming into the season, I had concerns for Toledo on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Rockets had to replace their star quarterback, running back and all five starting offensive linemen.
Defensively, they lost their top two pass-rushers and both starting cornerbacks, including first-round NFL Draft pick Quinyon Mitchell, who's starting for the Eagles now.
I probably would've passed on this game at the original line, but after it moved to +3, I had to take a stab on the Hilltoppers in a game I project closer to a coin-flip.
I'm not sure if the market was reacting to the news that WKU quarterback TJ Finley would miss this game with an injury, but I actually think Caden Veltkamp serves as a slight upgrade.
The sample size isn't large, but Velktamp has thrown five touchdowns in each of the two games in which he's played the majority of snaps. That includes last year's bowl victory over Old Dominion and last week's rout of Middle Tennessee, where he finished a sparkling 27-for-30 for 398 yards and five scores.
The Western Kentucky offense will put up points, while the defense will struggle to get many stops against quality opponents. Its cornerback group is probably the unit I trust the most on defense, which helps against a very good group of Toledo receivers.
However, the rest of the defense profiles as extremely porous.
That said, I can't get to a field goal here. I'll make Tucker Gleason prove he can back up last week's performance with another efficient effort.
For as good as he performed last week (23-for-28), he looked just as bad the week before against UMass, finishing just 8-for-23 passing. And while he does have nine touchdowns to no interceptions so far in 2024, he still doesn't have a big-time throw, per PFF.
Toledo will get to face a similar type of offense as Mississippi State. That does help, but it's not an ideal situational spot.
The Rockets now hit the road for a second straight road game after pulling off a rare road upset of an SEC team. Plus, they have a huge conference game on deck against Miami (OH) to kick off league play in a game I'm sure they've had circled since losing to the RedHawks in last year's MAC Championship.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, WKU head coach Tyson Helton is 16-5 ATS (76.2%) as a single-digit underdog, covering by 5.4 points per game.
Pick: Western Kentucky +3 or Better
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Oklahoma +7.5 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This one is scary, as Tennessee has looked like the best team in the country both in terms of the eye test and on paper (No. 1 in EPA margin).
However, it has faced FCS Chattanooga, NC State in Charlotte and a Kent State team that lost to St. Francis at home the week prior.
The Vols deserve credit for dismantling all three opponents, but the blowout of NC State doesn't hold the same luster after seeing what the Wolfpack did in their other two games against Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech. In fact, they failed to hold a lead through three quarters in both of those games.
Meanwhile, despite a 3-0 start, Oklahoma hasn't looked the part — especially on offense, where it ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
Most of the offensive struggles can be attributed to some questionable play-calling, as well as an abundance of injuries at wide receiver and along an offensive line that already had to replace all five starters from last year's team.
That has led to a constant rotation across the front, which has really hampered the offense in every facet.
Fortunately for the Sooners, it does look like Oklahoma will be much healthier this week to kick off SEC play.
I expect starting center Branson Hickman and guard Troy Everett to return, which will enable Jacob Sexton to move to his more natural position. After that, we'll see about projected starting right tackle Jake Taylor, who at least warmed up last week.
Hickman is particularly key as the anchor of the line at a position that has been an absolute mess for the Sooners. In fairness, no team in the country is really going to fare well when down to its fourth-string center.
The wide receiver room — which has pretty much been Deion Burks and no other help — could also receive a massive boost with the return of Nic Anderson (warmed up last week) and Andrel Anthony.
Oklahoma's secondary could also even be closer to full strength. I'd expect Kendel Dolby and/or Dasan McCullough back, which is massive for the Cheetah position in Brent Venables' defense. You could also see the return of projected top cornerback Gentry Williams in some capacity.
Getting any or all of those guys back would be helpful against the vaunted Tennessee passing attack, especially since the front seven is already as talented as ever in Norman.
Through three games, I have upgraded Tennessee aggressively and downgraded Oklahoma a few points, but I still can't get to this number that I would've projected closer to Oklahoma -7 to begin the season.
This will still mark the first true road game for highly-touted Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava in what should be a super hostile environment.
Plus, the Sooners should be as healthy as they've been all season. Can they protect Jackson Arnold enough to exploit a vulnerable Tennessee secondary? That's likely the key to this game.
While I still have some worries about the pass protection in terms of health and continuity, I'm selling high on the Vols at this price.
Notable Nugget
This will mark the first time Oklahoma closes as an underdog of a field goal or more since upsetting No. 1 Nebraska back in 2000.
Interestingly enough, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel was the quarterback for Oklahoma in that game, and Brent Venables was the defensive coordinator.
Pick: Oklahoma +7 or Better
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Louisiana-Monroe +45 at Texas
8 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network+
This one isn't too complicated.
I don't expect Quinn Ewers to play after suffering an abdominal injury last week.
While there might not be much of a drop-off to Arch Manning — who has shined any time he has seen the field so far in his young career — that means Manning won't come in to relieve Ewers.
Instead, it will be a freshman who obviously has talent but isn't yet on the same level as Manning and Ewers — a duo that, when healthy, makes it very difficult to fade Texas as a large favorite against overmatched opponents.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian also now has to be more cautious with Manning since Ewers is dealing with an injury, so maybe that means he pulls his starting quarterback quicker than usual with SEC play on the horizon next week.
UL Monroe also looks better than expected, having exceeded oddsmakers' expectations by a wide margin in each of its first two games.
It was a complete rebuild in the offseason from the staff to the roster, so the Warhawks were generally a difficult team to rate. However, a blowout win over UAB definitely looks better after seeing the Blazers play a competitive game against Arkansas in Fayetteville.
Additionally, ULM will be coming off of an early-season bye. That could actually be more beneficial to the Warhawks than the average team since they're basically a brand-new operation.
Former Oklahoma transfer General Booty is the man under center, but this is a slow-paced, run-heavy offense that will look to shorten this game at all costs. That's ideal for an underdog of this size.
Notable Nugget
FBS favorites of 45-plus have historically not fared well against the number (43% ATS).
Pick: UL Monroe +45
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Stuckey's Other Musings for College Football Week 4
Charlotte 49ers
+28.5 at Indiana
The love for Indiana football has reached fever pitch — something I never thought I'd say (or write) out loud. I even got a few messages this week asking about betting on the Hoosiers to make the playoff.
While head coach Curt Cignetti is that dude, those might be some sell signals. Indiana has looked dominant, but UCLA (which should've lost to Hawaii) might be very bad, and its other two wins came against Western Illinois and Florida International.
The problem is Charlotte is also very bad and dealing with a number of injuries, including at quarterback.
However, I still do show a bit of value on the 49ers at better than 28 in a game that should at least be slower-paced with the Hoosiers probably more concerned about the rest of Big Ten play rather than running it up here.
UTEP Miners
+9.5 at Colorado State
UTEP is very bad, but so is Colorado State — especially if the Rams don't have wide receiver Tory Horton.
The Miners are still figuring things out on both sides of the ball but have a shot to pull off an upset here.
The problem is they play very fast on offense and aren't very efficient. That could lead to the defense wearing down (like last week), especially in its second straight road game across the country in altitude.
East Carolina Pirates
+6.5 at Liberty
ECU will serve as a big step up in class for Liberty, which has not looked impressive through three games against very poor competition in Campbell, New Mexico State and UTEP.
The Flames arguably should've lost to NMSU and were in a very close game with UTEP last week through three quarters.
Why has this Liberty team not looked as dominant this season against inferior competition? You can start with the bleak injury situation on both sides of the ball, which only got worse last week. The Flames could now also be without star running back Quinton Cooley, who's the engine of that offense.
This is an extremely beat-up team right now.
Can the Pirates find any consistency (and stop turning it over) with their new uptempo offense? I think they have a great shot to pull off this upset.
