It's time to dive into the slate for college football Week 3.
Just like the past two seasons, I'll share my favorite Saturday spots on each week's college football slate.
Looking ahead to Week 3, I have highlighted my seven favorite Saturday spots, along with some quick thoughts on three other matchups. As always, these won't be pretty, so reader discretion is advised per usual.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
As we get more data points throughout the season, the breakdowns will become more in-depth from a matchup perspective. To start the season, I'm mainly looking to explain market overreactions and play certain situational spots. I'm really still learning a lot about all of these teams with such heavy roster turnover in the new landscape of college football.
Additionally, I don't really like to lean into any metrics until we're another week or two into the season.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 3.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 3-3 (50%)
- Overall: 102-73-1 (58.3%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Central Michigan +20 |
  | 12 p.m. | Tulsa +20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Under 45.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Georgia State +10.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kennesaw State +19.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Mississippi State -11.5 |
  | 9 p.m. | Wyoming +11.5 |
Central Michigan +20 at Illinois
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
This one is a pretty simple handicap.
Not only do I show value in this number, but Illinois also finds itself in a tough situational spot after upsetting ranked Kansas in front of a packed house with a trip to Lincoln to take on ranked Nebraska to begin Big Ten play next weekend.
I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois comes out a bit flat for this early kick against a MAC school.
Illinois also got pretty lucky in the turnover department (and on a muffed punt) last weekend, finishing with a net +16 in turnover EPA. The Illini benefited from a pick-six on a wide receiver screen in the final minute of the half that completely flipped the game on its head.
Conversely, CMU had a -6 turnover margin in a 52-16 loss at FIU despite outgaining the Panthers by 30 yards.
I believe those two results are driving some value this week on the Chips, who catch the Illini in a prime letdown spot. Hopefully, Joe Labas doesn't throw five picks again this week!
I'm also still not fully sold on this Illinois roster. The late addition of wide receiver Zakhari Franklin — the active NCAA leader in receiving yards — definitely provides the downfield passing attack with more juice to complement a solid rushing attack, but there are plenty of other holes on the two-deep.
Plus, with how Illinois plays under Bielema, it's not a team I'm overly terrified to fade as a big favorite, especially in this particular spot.
Don't catch the falling knife? In the interest of full transparency, there's a trend that sits squarely in the face of this play. Underdogs of 20 or more points that failed to cover the spread by 28 or more points the previous week have gone just 39-72-4 (35.1%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by four points per game on average.
That includes a depressing 7-25-1 ATS (21.9%) in the month of September.
In Week 3, this fade trend applies to Central Michigan, Kentucky, UTSA and UAB. Sometimes the market just can't catch up enough (especially early on) with how much worse a team is than expected.
Notable Nugget
For what it's worth, CMU head coach Jim McElwain has excelled against the number in the large underdog (20-plus points) role against power-conference competition since arriving in Mount Pleasant. He's covered four straight against Miami, Oklahoma State, Penn State and Notre Dame.
Pick: Central Michigan +20 or Better (Waiting to See if +21 Pops)
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Tulsa +20.5 vs. Oklahoma State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
While the travel is easy and the crowd should have its fair share of orange, this 11 a.m. local kick in Tulsa sets up as a potential sandwich spot for the Pokes, who survived in double overtime against Arkansas with Utah and Kansas State up next as the games that will make or break their season.
Meanwhile, Tulsa should come out with its hair on fire against one of its in-state big brothers.
While the offensive line situation remains murky, I like what I've seen from quarterback Kirk Francis in limited duty since taking over as the starter late last season.
I came away especially impressed in games against fairly decent G5 defenses in East Carolina (two-point win) and Tulane (two-point loss).
I think the Golden Hurricane can score enough — whether it's early or late — to keep this within three touchdowns against an Oklahoma State defense that still leaves a lot to be desired despite its returning experience.
Plus, the Pokes will now have to make do without their best overall defender in outside linebacker Collin Oliver, who suffered a long-term injury last week against Arkansas. The drop-off to his replacement, Obi Ezeigbo (D-II transfer), looked drastic.
Yes, Oklahoma State is 2-0, but it should've lost easily to Arkansas, which finished with a whopping 648-385 yardage edge.
It also finished with just six more yards than South Dakota State in the opener, yet still won by 24 thanks in part to fourth-down variance, as SDSU went 0-for-4 and OSU went 2-for-2.
On the season, Oklahoma State is now 3-for-4 on fourth downs, while its two opponents have yet to convert on six tries.
Despite sitting pretty at 2-0, Oklahoma State ranks 119th nationally in net yards per play margin (-1.83) — one spot behind Temple.
Running back Ollie Gordon II might just go completely bananas behind an offensive line that should push around the undersized Tulsa defensive front, which does scare me a bit.
However, even in that scenario, the Tulsa offense is still capable of doing enough to stay within this number.
Plus, I'm not sure how much Gundy will push with a lead late with two ranked opponents coming up next, especially after his defense played over 90 snaps last week. Last week's effort could not only lead to some fatigue but also may leave the backdoor open if necessary.
Notable Nugget
If you're looking for a reason to back the Pokes, since 2005, Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy is the third-most profitable head coach as a favorite among 431 in our Action Labs database, trailing only Jim Tressel and James Franklin.
Pick: Tulsa: +20 or Better
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Under 45.5
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is more injury speculation, but I'm not convinced Cam Rising will suit up for this one.
If he doesn't, the downgrade to the backup quarterback is astronomical. The Utah offense will look like it did under current Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes when it averaged approximately two touchdowns less per game than when Rising suited up.
If Rising does indeed get the start, I'd look for Utah State live if the Utes jump out to an early lead as expected, as I'd assume Utah won't run him much and would probably pull him early due to the injury concerns with a pair of critical conference games against ranked opponents on deck.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham alluded to that being the game plan once Rising left against Baylor last week, so I wouldn't expect anything different one week later.
After getting shut out by USC last week, it's also hard to see the Utah State offense doing much against a very stout Utah defense that doesn't have any glaring holes. Just last week, Baylor mastered only 73 yards of total offense in the first half.
It's also worth noting Utah State now runs at a significantly slower pace than it did last season under former head coach Blake Anderson. The Aggies were clearly trying to shorten the game against USC and should do so once again this week against a clearly superior opponent.
While Utah State got shredded by the USC offense last week, that's a different animal than the Utah offense — especially if Rising doesn't suit up. Ultimately, I trust the Utah State defense much more than the offense to step up in a home hype spot.
If Rising doesn't play, you'll have two teams just trying to shorten the game with extremely limited quarterback play.
Pick: Under 44 or Better · Utah State +21.5 or Better Live
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Georgia State +10.5 vs. Vanderbilt
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Off to a 2-0 start, Vanderbilt will travel to Atlanta for its first road game to take on Georgia State in a very trappy spot with Missouri and Alabama looming on deck to kick off SEC play.
The Commodores have definitely exceeded oddsmakers' expectations in their first two games.
They started off the season with an upset victory over Virginia Tech as two-touchdown underdogs and then took care of business in a 56-0 romp over lowly FCS Alcorn State last week.
However, I think the first win had more to do with the pristine spot and matchup for Vandy, which unveiled a brand-new offense the Hokies weren't prepared for.
Then, last weekend, it scored almost exclusively on short fields against an incompetent Braves bunch while adding a pair of late non-offensive touchdowns to make that score look more lopsided than reality.
While Vandy will intrigue me as a large underdog all season due to its service academy-esque style of play — run-heavy and slow-paced (look no further than its eight-minute field-goal drive to open up the game against Alcorn) — the opposite holds true for those same reasons when listed as a bigger favorite.
I also don't think Georgia State is as bad as many may have thought coming into the season after hitting the full reset button from both a roster and staff perspective.
Additionally, with so much attrition across the board, plus turmoil during the spring, it's a team that should improve more than most with live game action.
The Panthers actually held their own against Georgia Tech in their home opener but just couldn't capitalize in the red zone, scoring only three total points on three different goal-to-go situations.
I like the staff and quarterback Christian Veilleux, who has previous experience against P4 competition.
I won't sit here and wax poetic about the roster, but it's not a bottom-10 team. I have these teams separated on a neutral field by less than double digits.
Throw in home-field advantage, the tricky situational spot and Vandy's style of play, and this becomes a play at anything above 10.
Pick: Georgia State +10 or Better
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Kennesaw State +19.5 at San Jose State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ truTV
This looks like a decent spot to sell San Jose State as a pretty big favorite without much of a home-field advantage.
Despite a 2-0 start against San Jose State and Air Force, outside of wide receiver Nick Nash — one of my favorite players in all of college football — I haven't been overly impressed with the rebuilt Spartans.
They did go up to Colorado Springs last week and take care of business against the Falcons, but that may have said more about what I think will be one of the worst Air Force teams in quite some time. Plus, new head coach Ken Niumatalolo knows how to defend the triple option, which certainly helped in preparing for that matchup.
Keep in mind that Air Force had similarly dreadful offensive numbers in Week 1 against FCS Merrimack, which gave up 56 to UConn in the first half last Saturday.
Additionally, remember that SJSU closed as only a 2.5-point favorite at home against Sacramento State in its opener. While it won and covered, that game was in the balance until late.
For what it's worth, I only have Sacramento State favored by a little over a touchdown against the Owls.
Look, Kennesaw State is a bad (and undersized) football team by every measure. In fact, I have the Owls power-rated dead last among 134 FBS teams.
They could potentially improve with time in their first season at the FBS level, but this is more about selling high on San Jose State after a 2-0 start with a date with Washington State on deck on a short week.
The Owls run more of a spread-based option attack with a high rush rate. That should help limit the possessions, making it harder for the Spartans to cover such a big number — although I'd ideally like to get +21 here.
Pick: Kennesaw State +19.5 (Play to +18.5)
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Mississippi State -11.5 vs. Toledo
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
While I'm a bit concerned about the volume of defensive snaps the Bulldogs played in the Tempe heat last week, Toledo's defense saw even more against a UMass team that went up and down the field with ease all afternoon in the Glass Bowl.
I'm just not a fan of this Rockets roster, which lost an abundance of talent on the defensive side of the ball in addition to quarterback DeQuan Finn and all five starting offensive linemen.
Toledo did end up beating lowly UMass by 15 last week, but that was an extremely misleading final score, aided by a kick-return touchdown and a late score after UMass committed multiple personal fouls following a failed desperation onside kick attempt.
How ugly was it in reality? Toledo had a paltry 26% Success Rate (first percentile) against a Minutemen team that finished with 44 more plays from scrimmage.
The Rockets basically won that game with special teams (TD and average starting field position near midfield) and undisciplined UMass penalties. Overall, the Rockets finished a net +14 EPA in penalties and special teams.
But on a down-to-down basis, UMass was the better football team, averaging almost six more plays and 20 more yards on a per-drive basis. Both sides of the ball have taken a major step backward for Toledo.
For example, when Toledo beat UMass last season, it ran the ball 39 times for 375 yards — an average of 9.6 yards per carry. This year, those numbers plummeted to 22 rushes for 83 yards (3.8), while new quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only eight of his 23 pass attempts.
For his career, Gleason now has a sub-49% completion rate on over 200 attempts against much lesser competition than he'll face on Saturday night. The skill positions are still good, but the rest of the offense is significantly worse.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State went down against Arizona State after a valiant comeback effort. But the Bulldogs were actually a bit better overall in a number of statistical categories, averaging over a full yard per play more with a superior Success Rate and EPA per Play numbers.
They were just done in by turnovers (-10 net turnover EPA), including an ASU scoop-and-score touchdown following a sack. The defensive line remains a major liability, but I don't think Toledo's brand-new offensive line is capable of generating push.
On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State's uptempo offense under new head coach Jeff Lebby should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a Toledo defense that lost its top two pass-rushers and all three starting cornerbacks — one to Wisconsin and two others to the NFL, including first-round draft pick Quinyon Mitchell.
The most effective way to attack the Toledo defense is via deep vertical shots, which Lebby will certainly call plenty of.
The Rockets even let a rebuilt Duquesne squad move the ball some on them in their opener, which looks much worse after the Dukes did absolutely nothing (135 total yards) against Boston College in Week 2.
Give me the more talented home favorite that will maximize the number of possessions in a game where it should enjoy significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball against a Toledo team I don't think the market has fully adjusted down enough yet.
Pick: Mississippi State -11.5 (Play to -12.5 · Waiting to See if Toledo Money Comes In)
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Wyoming +11.5 vs. BYU
9 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is undoubtedly ugly, but that's nothing new if you've been reading this article the past few seasons. I live in the trash can.
The Pokes have looked lost through two games, but this is a tricky spot for the Cougars, who will travel to Laramie (underrated home-field advantage) for a second straight road game after an upset win at SMU with a huge home game against conference foe Kansas State on deck.
Wyoming got absolutely blasted in Tempe to start the season, then lost at home to FCS Idaho in Week 2.
However, I think it's potentially time to buy low on the double-digit home 'dog in a game where points should come at a premium, as evidenced by a super low total of 40.5.
There have been all kinds of offensive issues, starting with quarterback Evan Svoboda, who has been grossly ineffective. In fairness, he hasn't had much help from a struggling redshirt freshman left tackle and an extremely underwhelming group of wide receivers, who have a sky-high 28% drop rate (usually don't see anything north of 20%).
The good news is tight end John Michael Gyllenborg should make his season debut this week as Wyoming's most reliable weapon in the passing game.
New head coach Jay Sawvel also hinted at potentially running Svoboda with a much higher frequency. I think that's the prudent approach with the struggling young signal-caller, especially against a BYU defense that remains a bit vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.
On the other side of the ball, BYU will have to make do without its top two running backs (a year after losing one to the NFL) due to injury, while Wyoming will get starting safety Isaac White back.
That should help against BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who I'm still not totally sold on.
After a strong opener against FCS Southern Illinois, Retzlaff didn't look great against SMU. And in five career games against FBS competition, he has only four big-time throws to 12 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
While the Cougars did pull off the upset in Dallas in an ugly slugfest, that result may have said more about SMU, which also almost lost outright as more than a three-touchdown favorite at Nevada in Week 0.
I could look foolish here. Maybe Wyoming is just complete toast this season. But that wouldn't be the first nor last time I've done that.
I'm willing to take a stab and buy low (while also selling high) on the double-digit home pup in a game with a total of 40.5.
Notable Nugget
While the sample size isn't significant, for what it's worth, road favorites of a touchdown-plus after pulling off an upset as double-digit underdogs the week prior have not fared well historically
Pick: Wyoming +11.5 (Play to +11)
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Stuckey's Other NCAAF Week 3 Musings
UTSA Roadrunners
+35 vs. Texas
I'm showing value on UTSA +35 or better at Texas, but I'd like to get another data point on the Roadrunners when Texas State (which blasted them last week) hosts Arizona State on Thursday night.
The Longhorns might come out a little flat after their dominant win at Michigan against a bunch of in-state kids who should be juiced up to take on older brother. The vibes are similar to Notre Dame coming home to face Northern Illinois after beating Texas A&M.
While Texas is in a different class than the Fighting Irish, this could be the peak of the market on head coach Steve Sarkisian's group, which was favored by a similar number at home against Colorado State — a team I had over a touchdown worse than UTSA coming into the season.
Although, even if Sark pulls Quinn Ewers with a big lead, you're still looking at Arch Manning coming in.
NC State Wolfpack
-21 vs. Louisiana Tech
I also show value on NC State (especially at -21) against a bad Louisiana Tech team in a potential get-right spot after an embarrassing blowout loss to Tennessee.
However, I'm a bit hesitant because I could also see the Wolfpack coming out a bit flat for a cupcake in between Tennessee and Clemson.
Virginia Tech Hokies
-14 vs. Old Dominion
Virginia Tech may make the cut at -14 or better against Old Dominion.
Not only do I show value in that number, but it's also a pretty good matchup for the Hokies. Old Dominion can't run the ball, which is where a team would want to attack Virginia Tech.
As a result, the Hokies' pass rush should feast on a bad ODU offensive line, especially with an outstanding cornerback duo on the back end (although, starting safety Jalen Stroman is out).
The Monarchs also want to play fast, which isn't ideal when overmatched.
Lastly, I'm sure Brent Pry will have his team extra focused after a slow start to the season against an ODU team that pulled off a home upset over the Hokies in Pry's first-ever game as a head coach.
