The Big Ten Championship features a pair of powerhouses.
The undefeated Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0 B1G) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1) taking place in Indianapolis.
Oregon, apart from having itself a tremendous early signing week, finished off its season with a dominating Rivalry Week win against Washington 49-21. The Ducks’ first season in the Big Ten shaped up to be an overwhelming success, standing as the only undefeated team in the FBS.
Penn State finished its season with a 44-7 throttling of Maryland last week. It’s found itself in a handful of close battles but has done an incredible job at closing when it matters. James Franklin has always been scrutinized – for good reason, but this season, he’s done a solid job at managing his program.
Let’s dive into our Penn State vs. Oregon odds, picks and same-game parlay for Saturday, Dec. 7.
Big Ten Championship Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 51 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 51 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Spread: Penn State +3.5 · Oregon -3.5
- Over/Under: 50.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Moneyline: Penn State +140 · Oregon -165
Big Ten Championship Picks, Predictions, Parlay
- Oregon ML
- Over 50.5
- Tyler Warren Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
Parlay Odds: +397 (FanDuel)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Moneyline: Oregon
Penn State has done a solid job all season, forcing opponents to play down to its style.
That means pounding the rock, suffocating defense, checkdowns and limiting the high-risk plays.
Oregon is a program that doesn’t go down easily, though.
The Nittany Lions like to run the ball a lot, averaging 195 rushing yards per game, which is 23rd in the nation. The only difference is Oregon has stifled a lot of opposing run games. The Ducks are 23rd in opponent rushing yards per game, only allowing 118 yards per game.
Expect Oregon to look to the air to start. Gabriel has been a gunslinger all season long, completing 73.5% of his passes and an insane touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The combination of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart will be a lot to handle for Penn State’s secondary – which is 63rd in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
This will easily be Penn State’s toughest task and the Lions have battled in a few close ones this season, especially two weeks ago when they nearly fell to Minnesota.
Over/Under: Over 50.5
Penn State is usually a low-scoring team because of its aforementioned ability to slow the game down.
However, the Nittany Lions have hit the over in three consecutive games, boosting that over/under record to 6-6.
Can we expect that trend to continue? I think they’ll try to slow down the game to start, but Oregon won’t allow it.
The Ducks play at a middling pace at 27 seconds per play, but knowing how much Penn State thrives off of slow play, it would behoove Dan Lanning to play at a faster pace, potentially of the no-huddle variety.
Penn State Player Prop: Tyler Warren Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
A lot of the conversation leading up to this game has been about Nick Singleton, the dynamic running back who’s played all season hurt but is now 100%. However, the one player that I’m expecting a massive game out of is tight end Tyler Warren.
Oregon showed last month that it struggles to contain a legitimate tight end after allowing 112 yards on seven catches to Colston Loveland from Michigan.
Warren is Allar’s favorite target by a long shot, hauling in 81 receptions, while the closest receiver is at 35. In the grand scheme, 68.5 doesn’t seem like a large amount of yards.
Look at what he did to USC in Week 6, amassing an astounding 224 yards. Additionally, in the past three games, he’s registered yard totals of 127, 102 and 68.
Loveland was probably Oregon’s toughest tight end test this season, with Warren being a close second for this battle. However, if the Ducks couldn’t contain Loveland, I don’t see a world where they limit Warren under the allotted total.
Warren averages about seven receptions per game and an average of 81.5 yards. I don’t see a ton of opportunities elsewhere for other Nittany Lion receivers. Harrison Wallace III is the next best option, but he hasn’t done much all season to put money on.
I fully expect Warren to have himself a day.
