The first full college football week is behind us, and now we have some massive games coming up in Week 2.
Welcome to our Week 2 Pace Report, where we'll focus on Marshall vs. Virginia Tech, UTSA vs. Texas State and Louisiana vs. Kennesaw State.
With head coach and coordinator changes, the transfer portal and quarterbacks in new systems, we can't really rely on each team's pace numbers from last season, so we'll rely on what we've seen this season and numbers from last year.
So, until Week 4, plays per minute and plays per game numbers will not be provided.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things Week 2 off with three totals to target.
UTSA vs. Texas State Prediction
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
UTSA put up a solid performance through the air against Kennesaw State in Week 1.
Owen McCown backed up Frank Harris last season and was brilliant in his first game, going 29-of-39 for 340 yards and three touchdowns.
He'll be a big key in this game because Texas State was abysmal last season against the pass. The Bobcats ranked 104th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 97th in explosive passing allowed.
They brought back three starters from last year's team, but it doesn't seem like there will be much improvement. The Lamar Cardinals threw for over 200 yards and seven yards per attempt against them in the season opener, so McCown should have a lot of success on Saturday.
Texas State's offense projects to be one of the best in the Sun Belt this season because it picked up one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks from last season in James Madison's Jordan McCloud.
McCloud ranked fifth in college football last year in both EPA and Positive Play Percentage. He only projects to get better in a Mack Leftwich offense that finished 14th in Passing Success Rate with TJ Finley as the quarterback a season ago.
The Bobcats also brought back their top two wideouts in Joey Hobert and Kole Wilson, which should make this passing attack even better.
UTSA struggled giving up big plays in the passing game in 2023, ranking 89th in explosive passing allowed, so McCloud should have a big day through the air as well.
These two offenses played really fast last season. Texas State averaged 23.1 seconds per play (15th in FBS), while UTSA averaged 23.5 seconds per play (20th in FBS).
With both defenses sitting outside the top 100 in explosive plays allowed a season ago, there will be a lot of chunk plays in this game.
I have 67.7 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 61.
Pick: Over 60.5 (BetMGM)
Marshall vs. Virginia Tech Prediction
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -108 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | +800 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20 -112 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | -1350 |
Virginia Tech opened its season with a stunning loss in overtime as a two-touchdown favorite at Vanderbilt and will be hungry to bounce back here against Marshall in Week 2.
The Hokies' Week 1 performance was bad — there's no other way of putting it. This is a team that returns all 11 starters on the offensive side, but the rushing attack let them down. Virginia Tech averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in Nashville.
With that said, Kyron Drones was amazing throwing the ball on Saturday. The former Baylor transfer threw for over 300 yards and almost 10 yards per attempt, which is encouraging for his matchup against Marshall's secondary.
The Thundering Herd lost both of their starting cornerbacks from last season, including first-team All-Sun Belt selection Micah Abraham, who had 15 PBUs and was a sixth-round NFL Draft selection of the Indianapolis Colts.
Drones is a big-time dual-threat quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per carry on the ground last season while posting 17 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions.
He ran all over Marshall in this game last season, going for 99 yards on 11 carries. He should have a much better day running the ball than he did against Vanderbilt because Marshall was a very average run defense last season.
The Herd return only three starters in their front seven, so I expect Virginia Tech to run the ball with a lot of success.
Marshall's main quarterback this season is up in the air. Braylon Braxton, Stone Earle and Cole Pennington all played equal time against Stony Brook in the opener, which could make it very difficult for Virginia Tech to prepare.
Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense ran for 181 yards against Virginia Tech on Saturday, which is the main focus of the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd picked up NC State running back Jordan Houston, who started for the Wolfpack in 2022.
The other thing that Virginia Tech seemingly has not fixed is Finishing Drives. The Hokies finished 129th in Finishing Drives Allowed last season, so once Marshall crosses the 40-yard line, it should have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board.
Tempo-wise, Virginia Tech wants to play fast. Last season, it sat around the FBS average in seconds per play, but offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen picked up the tempo to 22.3 seconds per play on Saturday — five seconds faster than last year.
Marshall's offense ranked 39th in seconds per play last year, so the pace of this game should be a little faster than expected.
There will be 10 mph winds at kickoff, but the forecast calls for those winds to die down to around 6-7 mph by halftime.
I have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 48.5 points
Pick: Over 48.5 (DraftKings)
Louisiana vs. Kennesaw State Prediction
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -115 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -820 |
| Kennesaw State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -105 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +550 |
This total is a tad too low for me.
UTSA threw all over Kennesaw State on Saturday, as Owen McCown threw for over 300 yards. Louisiana can do the exact same thing.
Ben Wooldridge got the start against Grambling in the opener and was very impressive, throwing for 9.3 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.
Although the Ragin' Cajuns offense favors the run, they boasted a very efficient passing attack that ranked 38th EPA/Pass Attempt and 24th in Passing Success Rate.
Wooldridge gets two of his top three targets back, so they should have a good day against a Kennesaw State secondary that only has two starters back from what was a very average pass defense in FCS last year.
Dre'lyn Washington is Louisiana's feature back now after putting up solid production in a split backfield in 2023 with a whopping 5.6 yards per attempt.
Plus, ULL has four starters back on an offensive line that ranked 21st in Offensive Line Yards in 2023.
On the other side, the Owls ran the option for a long time but recently switched to more of a pistol offense last season. The hope was to improve in the passing game, so they didn't have to run the option at the FBS level.
There were a few big plays last week against UTSA big plays, but they still ran the ball 39 times compared to 24 pass attempts. However, they looked much better in the second half.
The Owls have brought back their most productive running back this season in Michael Benefield, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry a season ago. Additionally, seven offensive linemen have starting experience.
Kennesaw will most likely fall behind in this game, which will force it to pick up the tempo like it did against UTSA. In fact, the Owls ran at 25.5 seconds per play in that game, which is above last season's FBS average.
I have 54.7 points projected for this game, so I think there's some value on over 47.5 points.
Pick: Over 47.5 via BetMGM
