We continue the Week 10 NCAAF slate with my three Saturday night spots, including college football predictions and picks for Saturday, November 2.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 10, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 38-33-1 (53.5%)
- Overall: 137-103-2 (57.1%)
College Football Predictions, Picks for Saturday Evening
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | South Carolina +3.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Washington +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Louisville +11 |
South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This is the best situational spot on the board this weekend.
Coming off of a bye, South Carolina will host Texas A&M after the Aggies' comeback win over LSU to take over sole possession of first place in the SEC.
While the Gamecocks aren't in contention for an SEC title, they are two plays (and a number of bogus calls) away from sitting at 4-1 in league play with wins over Alabama and LSU instead of a pair of losses by two and three, respectively.
After seven straight victories, Texas A&M now finds itself ranked inside the top 10.
However, it's not like the Aggies have completely dominated their opponents on a weekly basis since their opening season loss to Notre Dame. They beat Bowling Green at home by just six and lost the total yardage battle against Mississippi State, LSU and Arkansas but prevailed in each in part due to a +5 turnover margin.
The Aggies also have benefited from the element of surprise at quarterback, specifically on the road against Florida in Marcel Reed's first start and then again last week when Mike Elko made the move back to Reed, who LSU was clearly not prepared for.
Well, that won't be the case this week with South Carolina, which should be fully prepared off of a bye for either quarterback.
Also, unlike LSU and Florida, the Gamecocks have the personnel along the defensive line to defend the quarterback run game, which they showed against Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide, who mustered only 104 yards on 38 carries in their Week 7 matchup.
While I have Texas A&M power-rated above South Carolina, it's not by a wide enough margin to get this line to a field goal or more — especially after accounting for the spot.
The Gamecocks have just been a bit unluckier overall, hence the difference of three wins.
From a net yards per play perspective, Texas A&M ranks just 53rd in the nation (+0.3) against FBS competition excluding garbage time, while South Carolina is right on its heels at +0.24 despite a tougher schedule (third nationally).
Keep in mind Texas A&M hasn't played a dominant defense (one I have rated inside the top 20) since the opener against Notre Dame, which held the Aggies to under 250 total yards of offense.
Meanwhile, South Carolina has faced three in its past three games, which definitely has supressed its offensive metrics a bit.
Now, it won't be easy for this limited South Carolina offense to move the ball on a stout Texas A&M defense.
However, if LaNorris Sellers and company can avoid costly turnovers, I believe they can hit enough explosives to pull off a mini-upset at home in a great situational spot against an overvalued Texas A&M team.
Although, for the sake of my preseason Texas A&M playoff futures, I hope the Aggies win by one in what should be a lower-scoring affair.
Notable Nugget
Excluding the COVID season, South Carolina is 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%) at home against top-10 teams since 2005, covering by 6.8 points per game. That includes seven outright victories as either an underdog or small favorite.
Projection: South Carolina +1.4
Pick: South Carolina +3.5 (Play to +3)
Washington +3 vs. USC
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
The stakes are actually pretty high for this Pac-12 — I mean, Big Ten — battle in Seattle on Saturday night between a pair of 4-4 clubs.
While neither team will compete for a Big Ten championship or playoff spot this season, the Huskies probably need this game for bowl eligibility with road games at Oregon and at Penn State remaining on their schedule.
While USC has an easier remaining schedule, it's no guarantee the Trojans will get to a bowl if they drop one in Husky Stadium with a remaining slate that includes Nebraska, UCLA and Notre Dame. It wouldn't be the best look for the program or Lincoln Riley if the Trojans didn't get to the postseason, especially after starting out the year with an upset win over LSU.
It should be a competitive game throughout with two very capable offenses, but I'm siding with the home Huskies.
I'm not jumping off the Jedd Fisch bandwagon after UW failed to cover for me in Bloomington last week.
Fisch has treated me as well as any coach over the past two seasons, but Washington simply couldn't overcome a pick-six and a pair of failed fourth-down conversions against a very good Hoosiers squad that was able to play with a lead in the second half, enabling them to lean on their running backs against a Washington defense that's much more vulnerable against the run than pass.
Under new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, the Huskies have suffocated opposing passing attacks, ranking in the top two nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
That bodes well against quarterback Miller Moss, who spearheads a USC offense with one of the highest passing rates in the country
This is a good matchup for the Washington defense.
On the other side of the ball, there's a clear path to moving the ball on the USC defense.
You have to hit some run explosives — which star running back Jonah Coleman can certainly do with his 6.7 yards per carry average — and efficiently move the ball in a patient manner through the air against a secondary that excels at limiting explosive passing plays but ranks 116th in Success Rate allowed.
Well, that should work just fine for the Huskies, who have not had much explosiveness through the air but rank sixth nationally in Success Rate.
Plus, quarterback Will Rogers sees his production fall off a cliff when under pressure but is lights-out when kept clean.
That bodes well in this particular matchup against a USC defense that really struggles to generate natural pressure, especially after losing a number of key contributors throughout the season, including its best linebacker and edge rusher.
The Trojans' underlying defensive metrics also suggest potential imminent regression based on the glaring disparity between their success on late downs vs. lack thereof on the more predictive early downs.
Washington checks all of the boxes from an advanced metrics standpoint, ranking in the top 20 nationally in a myriad of categories, including net yards per play (USC is 42nd for what it's worth).
The Huskies just haven't done any of the little things, which have cost them numerous games — most notably against Rutgers in which they finished with a 97% post-game win expectancy.
There have been bad penalties (and too many), special-teams blunders (11-18 on field goal attempts and bad punts), untimely turnovers, failed red-zone execution (16 touchdowns on 31 trips) and just plain, old bad luck (dropped interceptions, 7-for-17 on fourth-down attempts).
While there definitely can be systematic issues in a number of those categories, they also usually contain a ton of variance, especially for a team that I consider to be well-coached overall. I truly believe positive regression looms on the horizon for the Huskies in the "other" bucket of things that happen during a football game.
Plus, it's not like USC has lit the world on fire when it comes to doing all of the little things right. There's a reason the Trojans blew back-to-back 14-point leads against Penn State and Maryland.
They've also failed to close out leads in all three true road games.
Ultimately, I just don't see too much separation between these teams before even accounting for home-field advantage and potential matchup edges I see for the Huskies on both sides of the ball.
Washington also should hold a health and rest advantage after recently enjoying its bye week, while USC will be playing a game for the seventh straight week before its upcoming bye.
Therefore, I had to grab the field goal with the home pup in a game that likely comes down to the wire. Let's just hope that doesn't mean Grady Gross will have to make a kick.
Notable Nugget
USC is just 44-61-2 ATS (41.9%) on the road since 2005, which makes the Trojans the third-least profitable road team over that period (ahead of only Kansas and Colorado).
Head coach Lincoln Riley is just 2-8 ATS as a road favorite during his time in Southern Cal, including 0-3 this season with three outright losses as favorites of 4.5, 7, and 8.5 points.
Projection: Washington -0.4
Pick: Washington +3 (Play to +2.5)
Louisville +11 at Clemson
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
From a pure numbers perspective, I don't show much value on Louisville, which also finds itself in a tough situational spot on the surface. While Clemson will benefit from coming off of a bye week, the Cardinals will play their seventh straight game in seven weeks.
Additionally, they've played nothing but close games over that stretch, as each of the past five have been decided by one possession with the lone exception coming against Georgia Tech in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.
How much does Louisville have in the tank? It's a fair question, but it does at least get an extra day of rest and preparation after playing at Boston College last Friday night.
Despite a less-than-ideal net rest edge and projecting this close to the actual number, I'm still taking a shot here at fading Clemson after six straight wins against a laugher of a schedule.
All season, we've seen top-tier teams underperform when they step up in class after looking dominant against inferior competition.
And while Clemson hasn't faced anybody with a real pulse since its opening season loss against Georgia, Louisville certainly has.
The previous six Louisville opponents have an average rank of 32nd, per my latest power ratings. That includes a trio of top-20 teams that are in the College Football Playoff mix.
Meanwhile, Clemson's average opponent rank sits at 73rd with zero inside the top 60. The Tigers have also benefited from a +10 turnover margin over that stretch.
So, while Cade Klubnik has been playing at a very high level with 20 touchdowns to just two interceptions since the Georgia game, the quality of competition leaves a lot to be desired.
Plus, the underlying defensive metrics suggest Clemson may be a bit more vulnerable than many think on that side of the ball, especially against the run.
This could be a bit of a shock to the system against a battle-tested Louisville squad.
And there's a chance Clemson is just not as great as many (including myself) think after this recent stretch against Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Appalachian State, NC State and Stanford with none of those aging particularly well with each passing week.
Louisville has proven it can play with the top teams in the country with three one-possession losses against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami.
It easily could've won any of those games with a few different bounces of the football. All this team does is play close games, and it's certainly more than capable of sneaking in the backdoor if necessary.
Lastly, Jeff Brohm is one of the better head coaches in college football and has historically thrived as an underdog. Give me the points.
Notable Nugget
As a six-plus point underdog, Brohm has gone 18-9 ATS (66.7%), covering by more than nine points per game. Even more impressive, he's won 12 of those 27 games outright with an average spread of nearly 13.
Projection: Louisville +10.4
