Week 10 of the college football season is here, and it brings with it one of the biggest games of the season in the Big Ten.
In what could be a potential College Football Playoff knockout game for Ohio State, the No. 4 Buckeyes will travel to Happy Valley to take on the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions.
This game marks the fourth top-5 matchup we've had since Week 5, joining Georgia vs. Alabama, Ohio State vs. Oregon and Georgia vs. Texas.
The Buckeyes lost their matchup to the now-No. 1 Ducks, making this a pivotal game for their postseason hopes.
But that's not the only big game on the slate.
My Week 10 Action Network betting card also features the top-ranked Oregon Ducks hosting the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines, an SEC rivalry between the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs, and a battle between undefeated ACC teams in the Pitt Panthers and SMU Mustangs.
It's sure to be a loaded week of college football, so let's dive right in. Continue reading for my college football predictions and Week 10 NCAAF picks below.
College Football Predictions for Week 10
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 10 NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction
The expanded College Football Playoff might have been a more welcome sight to Penn State than any other FBS program in the nation.
A severe winning drought in the series against former East Division opponent Ohio State has long served to keep the Nittany Lions out of the national title scene.
The losing spell started in 2012 before head coach James Franklin came to State College in 2014. Penn State has won this rivalry game just once in the past 12 games, a 32-21 Beaver Stadium victory in 2016.
Unlike the Nittany Lions, the Buckeyes could be playing in a CFP elimination game with a previous loss to Oregon in Week 6. Coming out of the bye week at home against Nebraska served as a platform to avenge the loss to the Ducks, but Ohio State needed an 8-play, 75-yard drive to cover a near-four touchdown spread.
The stakes could not be higher for Ohio State, which is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 45.
Let's take a look at my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State's trench continues to be dominated on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has been decimated by injury, losing left tackle Josh Simmons for the season against Oregon.
Backup blindside tackle Zen Michalski struggled in nine gap-rushing attempts while giving up four pressures and two sacks in 20 pass-blocking assignments.
Left guard Donovan Jackson is expected to slide over after taking snaps in practice this week, playing left tackle on just four of his 2,045 career snaps.
While the offensive line slips outside the top 50 in pass blocking, the defensive line sits outside the same range in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The run stoppers have mid-FBS success against teams that run inside zone, but it's the power rush concepts that have torched the Buckeyes.
Safety Caleb Downs has 12 stops on the season, one key number in supporting the Buckeyes' rank of 40th in rush explosives allowed.
There's a case to be made that Oregon is the best offense on the schedule, as Ohio State allowed the Ducks 7.6 overall yards per play.
Penn State Nittany Lions
There's a possibility James Franklin tuned in to Texas A&M's most recent victory over LSU. The Aggies struggled with a pocket quarterback, moving to a backup with rush abilities to change the dynamic of the game.
The scenario that played out in College Station could be replicated in State College, as Franklin acknowledged there's a different playbook for backup quarterback Beau Pribula.
Beau Pribula is a DAWG pic.twitter.com/RQfboJD0K5
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) October 29, 2024
Starting quarterback Drew Allar struggled to get the Penn State offense going against Wisconsin, seeing eight pressures and a drop by wide receiver Julian Fleming.
Allar left the game with a lower-body injury before Pribula gave the Nittany Lions a new dimension to coordinator Andy Kotelnicki's offense.
The former Kansas head coach dipped into his RPO bag to send Pribula on a half-dozen rushing attempts while feasting on the midrange passing game.
Franklin insisted Pribula would change things "dramatically for the defense" with a separate playbook from Allar.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Tom Allen's 3-3-5 personnel has played at the highest level in college football.
The Nittany Lions rank top-five in numerous defensive categories, including opponent rush explosives, Stuff Rate and Line Yards. Wisconsin was stuffed on 40% of rushing attempts, limiting the Badgers to an overall 34% Success Rate.
Edge Amin Vanover played his most snaps of the season with full health, creating five pressures in 28 opponent pass attempts.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Pick
A number of offensive coordinators under Franklin have struggled to beat Ohio State, from Mike Yurcich to Kirk Ciarrocca. However, Kotelnicki was the hottest name on the market this past offseason after calling plays for the electric Kansas Jayhawks under former Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold.
Kotelnicki uses one of the highest amounts of pre-snap motion and shifts in football, all designed to get the defense to tip its blitzing attempts. The triple option within a spread concept fits Pribula's skill set, similar to Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Kotelnicki has faced Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles in the past, but Knowles' Oklahoma State team routed Kansas.
Knowles' defense held Kotelnicki's offense to just three points, but it was Leipold's inaugural season in Lawrence as the Jayhawks finished with two wins.
The former Kansas coordinator will have plenty of notes to study about Knowles' aggressive nickel package.
The Penn State offensive line ranks top-20 in Line Yards and Havoc allowed, indicating clear rushing lanes and pockets for passing.
More importantly, the Nittany Lions have dominated in rushing attempts using power concepts with a 65% Success Rate and a high EPA (Expected Points Added) of 0.64.
Ohio State has been shredded in defending power rushing attempts with a 37% Success Rate. Nicholas Singleton has a 43% breakaway rate, creating a double-digit run in every appearance this season.
The Ohio State offense will look to keep the methodical drives going with quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinshon Judkins. The biggest run concept for offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is inside zone, a scheme the Penn State defense has shut down this season, allowing opponents a 38% Success Rate.
West Virginia mobile quarterback Garrett Greene was limited to just five yards on 10 rushing attempts against PSU, while Illinois' Luke Altmyer was sacked seven times.
The biggest issue for Ohio State's run game is the lack of missed tackles created, ranking 86th in FBS, per Sport Source Analytics.
Ultimately, Pribula and Kotelnicki are the wild cards needed topple an Ohio State defense that allowed just a single touchdown to Penn State last year.
If Allar is healthy enough to play, expect Penn State to take aim at cornerback Denzel Burke, who gave up catches on all eight targets to the Ducks at 22.3 yards per catch.
When Pribula is under center, expect minimal zone read and more power concepts from Singleton and Kaytron Allen with plenty of success.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have Penn State as the tiniest of favorites when factoring in home-field advantage at Beaver Stadium.
Both the Ohio State offensive and defensive lines are outside the top 50 in Line Yards, so the Nittany Lions should find success moving the pocket and producing quality drives.
For the Buckeyes' offensive line, health should continue to hinder the left side and continue to complicate rush and passing attempts.
Pick: Penn State +3 or Better
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Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction
The reigning national champion will host the No. 1 team in the AP Poll in Week 10.
After winning the 2024 national title game and putting a stamp on a two-year record of 23-1, Michigan (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) promoted offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to bridge the program into a new era without Jim Harbaugh.
Oddsmakers posted the Wolverines' win total at 9 — a number that can only push if the team wins its remaining games.
Moore continues to call an offense for two quarterbacks with differing skills and efficiency, a consistent problem for the Wolverines this season.
Undefeated Oregon (8-0, 5-0) will head to the Midwest for the second time this season, previously covering the spread against Purdue on the Friday of Week 8.
The Ducks took home the biggest game of the Big Ten season against Ohio State in Week 7, while easily covering a 3-touchdown spread against ranked Illinois last week.
Despite Michigan not being a playoff contender, this game serves as a measuring stick for the College Football Playoff committee.
Oregon enters as a -14.5 favorite with an over/under of 45.5.
Let's dive into my Oregon vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Oregon Ducks
Offensive coordinator Will Stein has Oregon cruising over the past two games. The Ducks outscored Illinois and Purdue by a combined score of 73-9.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has posted six big-time throws to a single turnover-worthy play over the past eight quarters. With 42 all-purpose touchdowns, Gabriel has been vaulted to the top of the Heisman watch.
Oregon is playing as the most efficient offense in the nation while ranking seventh in third-down conversions.
Dillon Gabriel drops back to pass, clips his nails, combs his hair, reads a book then finds Tez Johnson for the TD pass#OregonDucks#GoDucks
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) October 26, 2024
The Oregon defense continues to carry the characteristics that contributed to a victory over Ohio State. The Ducks are the second-best coverage defense, per PFF, backed by a rank of sixth in opponent Passing Success Rate.
Cornerbacks Brandon Johnson and Jabbar Muhammad have combined for 12 pass breakups on the season.
The issue for defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is defending the rush. The Ducks rank 86th in Defensive Line Yards, indicating opposing offensive lines are creating running lanes.
Tackling at the second level has also been poor, as the Ducks are 141st in broken and missed tackle rate when considering all FBS and FCS teams.
Inside zone read and man rush concepts have given the Ducks defense the most severe issues.
Michigan Wolverines
The quarterback carousel in Ann Arbor continues, as sixth-year senior Jack Tuttle retired from football earlier this week.
Davis Warren took over the passing attempts, while Alex Orji chipped in six rushing attempts against Michigan State.
Michigan boasts one of the worst offenses in terms of creating explosive plays and methodical possessions, ranking 110th in quality drives.
Warren completed 14-of-20 passes, but with an average depth of target at 4.4 yards, first downs came from only one of seven targets.
Tight end Colston Loveland received nearly half of the targets from Warren. The junior lines up all over the field, from in-line to wideout to the slot.
Michigan could have the worst offense in the B1G if it weren't for Colston Loveland pic.twitter.com/b0S1AwrxJU
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) October 30, 2024
Outside of the predictable passing game, Orji will continue to share carries with running back Kalel Mullings, generating the most success with outside zone and explosives with inside zone.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has a leaky back end of the defense, ranking first in pass rush but 80th in coverage, per PFF.
This nickel defense calls blitz on 39% of snaps, creating a boom-or-bust dynamic for the Wolverines. Opponents have dominated in passing downs, as Michigan ranks 125th in stopping explosives in known passing situations.
Oregon vs. Michigan Pick
One element missing from the elite numbers Gabriel has posted in the last two Oregon wins is a solid pressure rate. The Oregon offensive line allowed just eight pressures against Illinois and Purdue after giving up 58 in the previous six games.
Gabriel continues to be uncomfortable in a crowded pocket, throwing a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays in 47 pressured dropbacks this season.
A trio of defensive linemen in Derrick Moore, Mason Graham and Josaiah Stewart lead the Wolverines with 24 pressures apiece.
The Ducks defense has struggled against the rush far more than the pass. Illinois and Purdue each produced a Success Rate higher than 51% on rushing attempts.
Because Oregon can be caught for explosives defending inside zone, expect Orji and Mullings to get the Wolverines in position to score. Oregon's poor FBS rank in broken tackles allowed will also play a factor.
Look for Michigan's more disciplined defense to get to Gabriel, potentially forcing a turnover. Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for this spread to be lower than 17 points, giving minimal value to the home underdog.
Pick: Michigan +16 or Better
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Florida vs. Georgia Prediction
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party may not be the official name of the Florida-Georgia rivalry anymore, but the SEC brings us one of the best neutral-site conference games in Week 10.
Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) leads the all-time series 55-44-2, taking 6 of the previous 7 in this series.
Head coach Kirby Smart has dominated in 3 seasons since the pandemic, leading Georgia to a combined winning margin of 72 points since 2021.
If the Bulldogs beat Florida (4-3, 2-2), the only thing standing between them and a trip to the SEC Championship would be 2 games against Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Not many would have guessed Florida head coach Billy Napier would still be employed, much less heading to this game in Jacksonville with a winning record.
Florida enters the game as a 16-point underdog with a total of 52.
Let's take a look at my Florida vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Florida Gators
The simplified Florida defense will look to slow down a Georgia offense that has been on a warpath since losing to Alabama.
The Gators bottled up Kentucky's running game their last time out while limiting the passing game to 12-of-32 for 165 yards and a couple of interceptions.
Shutting down the Wildcats' passing attack still may not be as impressive as the Week 7 performance against Tennessee. The Gators kept Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava to 169 passing yards, no touchdowns and an interception.
The latest availability report suggests freshman quarterback DJ Lagway will be working without a couple of key pieces on the offense. Wide receiver Eugene Wilson III continues to miss time, while running back Montrell Johnson Jr. is questionable.
Johnson's absence didn't stop the Gators from dominating Kentucky's defense on the ground, as freshman Jadan Baugh busted out for five touchdowns and 106 yards rushing.
#Gators RB Jadan Baugh becomes the first @GatorsFB player with five rushing touchdowns in a game since @TreyBurton8 scored five against Kentucky in 2010.
Ties the school record with Burton and Tim Tebow.pic.twitter.com/Fk8EHobGzP
— Zach Abolverdi (@ZachAbolverdi) October 20, 2024
Although Lagway has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns, the mistakes have not been on the shoulders of the freshman. Through seven games, Lagway has nine big-time throws to two turnover-worthy plays.
The freshman has been solid in passing attempts with pressure, failing to record a turnover-worthy play in 29 dropbacks.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia returns to the scene of college football after smashing the top team in the country on its own field.
The Bulldogs were the more physical team in a 30-15 victory over Texas — the first game Georgia had played a full four quarters on both sides of the ball.
The real work begins after the bye week, keeping the same intensity that helped the offensive and defensive line dominate Texas.
Georgia's defense peppered Texas' offensive line with seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss, briefly knocking quarterback Quinn Ewers out of the game.
The Bulldogs stuffed the Longhorns' rushing attack 55% of the time on 20 attempts — nearly double the national average.
UGA defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann got the best out of his defense in passing downs, limiting Texas to an average of 1.9 yards per play. The Longhorns produced a 21% Success Rate on 34 passing-down attempts.
The offense didn't have as much success as the defense in Austin.
Quarterback Carson Beck threw three interceptions, recording his first game without a big-time throw since Week 2 against Tennessee Tech.
The senior continues to struggle against Cover 1 looks from opposing defenses, generating a low 42% Success Rate with a negative EPA (Expected Points Added) per Play.
Florida vs. Georgia Pick
There's reason to believe both defenses will have success against the opposing offenses.
Georgia has struggled to get the running game going in multiple games this season.
Although Florida sits outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, the Gators have been very successful in 113 snaps against inside zone. The Bulldogs use inside zone read by far more than any other run concept.
Beck failed to make a big-time throw against Florida last season, as UF defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong implemented multiple coverage schemes.
The Gators rank third nationally in preventing early-down explosives, ranking top-35 in overall opponent Pass and Rush EPA.
Georgia has made adjustments in-game throughout the season to create scoring, but the Gators offense should have an even tougher time creating opportunities.
UGA's defense will stymy Florida's passing attack, leading the nation in Passing Downs Success Rate allowed. The Bulldogs are top-40 in creating contested catches — an indicator that the Gators' best shot is the ground game with Lagway and Baugh.
However, the Bulldogs rank 30th in missed tackles, while will keep the Gators from gaining chunk yardage on the ground.
Neither Florida nor Georgia have found ways to put points on the board early, In fact, neither team ranks in the top 80 in first-quarter scoring.
The Bulldogs' secondary is sure to make Florida one-dimensional, Baugh should find some success on the ground.
Georgia will also use inside zone but will face a defense that has been successful in shutting the run concept down.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Georgia as a 16-p0int favorite, leaving no value on the current side offerings.
With both teams having defensive advantages and a history of slow scoring, there might be enough inefficiency in the first half to keep the cocktail party going.
Pick: First Half Under 27.5 or Better
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Pitt vs. SMU Prediction
The SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0 ACC) are currently undefeated in their inaugural ACC conference schedule, but hurdles await in the final month of games. That includes a matchup against the undefeated Pitt Panthers (7-0, 3-0) in Week 10.
SMU struggled on the road in its last game at Duke, needing a blocked field-goal attempt to end regulation and eventually take a 28-27 victory from the Blue Devils.
The Mustangs posted 6 turnovers, including 3 interceptions while losing 3 of their 6 fumbles. SMU travels back home to get healthy in the Havoc allowed category, prepping for a fellow undefeated ACC team.
The Panthers have been a huge success in terms of surpassing oddsmakers' win total of 5.5 games. Head coach Pat Narduzzi enters Week 10 undefeated at 7-0, looking to win a fourth consecutive conference game.
SMU is favored by 7.5 at home in Gerald J. Ford Stadium with an over/under of 58.5.
Let's take a look at my Pitt vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Pitt Panthers
Starting quarterback Eli Holstein was injured in the fourth quarter of Pitt's last game against Syracuse after a 13-yard run. While Narduzzi is typically tight-lipped about injuries, Holstein has been cleared and expects to start against the Mustangs.
Holstein has racked up 17 touchdowns to five interceptions, but a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2% has sky-rocketed over the past two games.
If he were to re-aggravate an injury, backup Nate Yarnell is in his third season with Pitt but has thrown just 26 passes in new coordinator Kade Bell's system.
The junior may not be a complete drop-off at the position, posting a lower 3.3% turnover-worthy play rate in his career while doubling the number of big-time throws.
The bigger issue may be a Pitt offense that's outside the top 70 in pass blocking and Havoc allowed.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Randy Bates' 4-3 unit has overachieved relative to preseason expectations, controlling the line of scrimmage while posting a top-15 number in Havoc.
The front seven consistently plays in the opponent's backfield, posting 57 tackles for loss and 145 pressures.
Nate Matlack's 17 quarterback hurries is one of the best marks in the country from all left defensive edge players in FBS.
SMU Mustangs
In the wake of losing the top target on the team in tight end RJ Maryland, SMU played one of the worst games of the season in an overtime victory over Duke.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings connected on half of his passing attempts, racking up three interceptions while ball carriers fumbled six times.
The good news for Lashlee is the offensive momentum, doubling the national average in methodical drive rate while adding three other possessions with an average of 10-plus yards per play.
Tight end Matthew Hibner nearly doubled his season total in targets with six, while running back Brashard Smith bulldozed 26 rushing attempts that included two touchdowns.
It's #TouchdownTuesday with Brashard Smith's OT TD to secure No. 22 SMU's 4th conference dub and to improve to 7-1 overall with a 28-27 win over Duke 💪@SMUFB | @SMUMustangs | #PonyUpDallaspic.twitter.com/NO3qHhQps5
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 29, 2024
The usage of inside zone took on a higher Success Rate once Jennings ascended to starting duties at quarterback. SMU has two key run concepts that generate a high Success Rate of 60%: inside zone read to power.
There's an expectation that Jennings will come back to the median, as five of his six turnover-worthy plays came against Duke.
The good news for SMU's passing attack is that Pitt uses a heavy amount of quarters coverage, which Jennings has a mid-FBS success rate and neutral EPA (Expected Points Added) against.
Despite high-ranking numbers across the board defensively, Duke pushed SMU down the field. The Blue Devils averaged just 2.3 points in scoring opportunities, defined by drives that extend beyond the 40-yard line.
The Mustangs rank 12th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing just 2.9 points on 47 opponent trips to the extended red zone.
Elijah Roberts is the highest-rated defensive edge in FBS football in terms of pass-rush productivity, per PFF. The fifth-year senior has terrorized opponents with 41 pressures this season.
Elijah Roberts gets the SACK pic.twitter.com/RK2m2wE3GM
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) October 5, 2024
Pitt vs. SMU Pick
Don't be fooled by the recent scores of SMU and Pitt in Week 9. The Mustangs had six takeaways in the overtime win, while Pitt generated five takeaways from Syracuse in the blowout victory.
Jennings doesn't have a troubling track record against quarters coverage, a look that the Pitt defense will use heavily.
The bigger question is Pitt's ability to defend inside zone and power run concepts. The Panthers ranks 86th in broken tackles allowed, indicating the SMU ground game should gain traction.
The biggest handicap comes in Pitt's ability to provide solid pass blocking for either Holstein. Pitt ranks top-15 in Rush EPA, running straight into the teeth of an SMU defense that's also top-15 in allowing opponents chunk plays on the ground.
Ultimately, the chance for Pitt to win this game comes on the arm of Holstein.
The Panthers will be expected to throw under pressure, as Roberts will come off the edge against offensive tackle Ryan Baer. Baer's numbers have been poor, generating the lowest pass-blocking grade of any starter with 19 pressures allowed this season.
Both Holstein and Yarnell have struggled in a pocket that sees pressure. Yarnell had 21 dropbacks with pressure in 2023, generating three turnover-worthy plays and an adjusted completion rate drop of more than 40%.
SMU plays a strict Cover 3 in the secondary, a coverage scheme that has hindered Yarnell to a 44% Success Rate in his career.
Our Action Network projections make SMU a favorite of 10 points with a total just south of the key number of 59.
Both offenses will work with tempo, but SMU's advantages in Defensive Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives should keep Pitt from cashing in at the goal line.
Furthermore, Pitt's explosiveness on the ground won't show up against an SMU defense that ranks 12th in opponent Rush EPA.
Pick: SMU -7.5 or Better
