College football Week 11 is officially here, and it's a big one.
The slate is highlighted by two top-20 games that have major College Football Playoff and SEC Championship implications: No. 3 Georgia vs. No 16 Ole Miss and No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU.
But those are far from the only games on the slate.
I also see betting value on the SEC showdown between Florida and No. 5 Texas to open the day, as well as the Michigan vs. No. 8 Indiana Big Ten battle in the afternoon window.
Then, to close it all out, I'm putting my eyes on the Holy War in Salt Lake City between No. 9 BYU and in-state foe Utah.
Read on for all five of my college football predictions in my Action Network betting card for college football Week 11.
Collin Wilson's Week 11 College Football Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 11's slate of Saturday games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3: 30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida vs. Texas Prediction
While another SEC matchup will get all the attention in Week 11, the scene in Austin will be bananas when Florida (4-4) travels to face Texas (7-1).
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare after a struggle through the past two games. Head coach Steve Sarkisian saw his team get outplayed physically in the trenches in a loss against Georgia in Week 8. Texas rebounded in Nashville the following week, surviving an upset with a field goal victory over Vanderbilt.
Enter the Gators, playing some of the most surprising football of any SEC team over the past month. Florida posted double-digit victories over Kentucky and Central Florida, losing to Tennessee on the road by just a possession.
A win for the Longhorns keeps the program on track for the SEC Championship game. Florida enters the game needing two wins for bowl season and a chance to eclipse all oddsmakers' preseason expectations from a win total perspective.
Texas is a 21.5-point favorite with a total hovering around 48.
Let's dive into my Florida vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Florida Gators
In the months leading up to the 2024 season for the Gators, there was one variable that could not be ignored: This is the most diabolical second-half schedule of any team in college football.
After a covering effort against Georgia last week, the Gators will now take to the road to face Texas with a roster that is full of injuries. There is little onboarding time for the new faces in new positions, as the Gators will follow up Week 11 with LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State.
Napier had good news with respect to quarterback DJ Lagway, indicating there was a "pathway to return."
The world will wait for the Friday availability report from the Gators, as running back Montrell Johnson Jr. could also be out against the Longhorns.
The Florida offense could be without its top two quarterbacks, top two running backs, and wide receiver Eugene Wilson III, who underwent hip surgery.
Quarterbacks coach Ryan O'Hara will be responsible for getting walk-on Yale transfer quarterback Aidan Warner ready for Texas after three turnover-worthy plays against Georgia.
Injuries are also an issue on the defensive side of the ball, specifically key contributors in the secondary.
Corner Jason Marshall Jr. was the highest-graded coverage defender for the Gators defense but suffered a season-ending injury against Georgia.
Starting defensive backs Devin Moore and Dijon Robinson were also injured against the Bulldogs. Napier indicated freshmen Jameer Grimsley and Teddy Foster are the primary options to start at the cornerback in Austin.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are not immune to injuries, as starting safety Derek Williams Jr. was lost for the season after the victory against Oklahoma.
A pair of freshmen, Xavier Filsaime and Jordon Johnson-Rubell, have filled in at the safety position, each posting subpar grades in coverage for Texas.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski fields one of the best defenses against the pass regarding efficiency, but Texas has fallen to 66th in forcing contested catches.
There is positive news on the injury front on the offensive end, as explosive wideout Isaiah Bond returned to practice after missing play against Vanderbilt.
The Alabama transfer averages 2.3 yards per route run, which lightly trails the Horns wideout on the other side of the field in Ryan Wingo. The biggest question will come in the play from quarterback Quinn Ewers, who threw two interceptions against Vanderbilt.
The two takeaways from the Commodores' defense were not graded as turnover-worthy throws per PFF, a positive sign after recording seven mistakes against Georgia.
The game plan against Vanderbilt was low-risk, using wide receiver screens and flares en route to Ewers' lowest average depth of target on the season at 5.4 yards.
One area that has not faltered this season is red-zone productivity, with Texas ranking as a top-25 team in finishing drives. Texas has scored 29 touchdowns in 34 red-zone trips, one of the highest touchdown rates in the country.
Florida vs. Texas Pick
Sarkisian indicated that the preparation for the Texas defense would be against the Florida system and not a particular quarterback.
Shifts, motion and formation adjustments pre-snap are familiar to the Texas head coach, who limited Napier's offense at Louisiana to 18 points in the 2021 season opener.
With limitations at the Gators' skill positions, there is every expectation that a Texas defense that ranks 13th in defensive Havoc will overpower a depleted Gators offense that is outside the top 100 in Havoc allowed.
The bigger handicap may come on the offensive side of the ball for Texas, as Ewers will look to overcome a string of bad starts.
The Gators are down multiple players and forced to play freshmen in a secondary that already ranked 122nd in creating contested catches for opposing offenses.
With Bond and Wingo both expected to line up at wideout, there could be more flares and wide receiver screens against a pair of freshman corners for Florida.
Texas is second nationally in creating a quality drive, an indicator that scoring chances could be plentiful.
The Longhorns are among the best red-zone touchdown scorers in the nation, which is a consistent issue for a Gators defense that is 70th in red-zone touchdowns allowed.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 34.5 or Better
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Prediction
Every weekend in the month of November can be deemed "Elimination Saturday" in the SEC.
This time, the elimination game will be between the Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1 SEC) and Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2). Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia has played the role of Jekyll and Hyde perfectly through eight games, losing at Alabama after an embarrassing first quarter while dominating in every aspect on the road at Texas.
Head coach Kirby Smart will hit the road once again to take on another SEC rival that's beginning to peak.
Ole Miss has long led our Havoc Rankings over the past month, generating plenty of activity in the opponent's backfield. Head coach Lane Kiffin still has an outside chance at an SEC Championship appearance and College Football Playoff run.
Georgia enters Oxford as a 2.5-point favorite, a year removed from winning by five possessions while putting more than 50 points on the board against Ole Miss. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 54.5.
Let's dive into my Georgia vs. Ole Miss predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Georgia Bulldogs
The biggest question heading into Week 10 is if Georgia could maintain the same level of physicality from the win at Texas. Smart spoke often about the inability to play a full four-quarter game, costing the Bulldogs a loss at Alabama earlier this season.
Georgia powered over Florida in the run game, generating a 68% Success Rate on 31 carries.
Although Bulldogs running back Trevor Etienne suffered a rib injury, the former Gator is not listed on the Georgia availability report for Week 11.
While the rushing attack was on point, quarterback Carson Beck logged a third consecutive horrendous game. Beck has thrown eight interceptions over the last three games against the defenses of Mississippi State, Texas and Florida.
Pressure is an issue, as Beck's turnover-worthy play rate moves from 2.7% to 10.3% with a crowded pocket. Despite Georgia's offensive line ranking top-10 in pass blocking, 23-of-66 pressures this season have come in the last two games.
The Georgia defense posted stellar numbers across the board against Florida, an expected result considering the quarterback injuries to the Gators. Florida averaged 3.4 overall yards per play and created just one methodical drive on 15 offensive possessions.
However, the Bulldogs lacked in Havoc plays with just two sacks and six tackles for loss. Both sacks were supplied by edge rusher Chaz Chambliss, currently in a tie as the best-graded defender on defense.
The other player is linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. who has not played since Week 5 but positively showed up on Georgia's availability report as questionable.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss continues to be the most Havoc-minded defense in the nation. A strip sack and scoop-and-score against Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green was one of many Havoc plays the Rebels provided in a victory over the Razorbacks.
Ole Miss is the top team in the nation in terms of playing in the opponent's backfield, ranking No. 1 in tackles for loss by a wide margin.
Outside linebacker Suntarine Perkins is the name to watch against the Georgia offense, as he leads the team in pressures.
Suntarine Perkins with the 3rd down stop :shark:@suntarine | #HottyToddypic.twitter.com/9l3P2FP4V9
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 5, 2024
The availability report for Ole Miss had an unexpected name that could have a negative impact on the offense against Georgia. Wide receiver Tre Harris — the team's most important offensive piece — has missed action due to injury since Week 7 against LSU.
While Harris' "doubtful" designation for the Georgia game was not a surprise, fellow wide receiver Jordan Watkins being listed sent a shock into the Rebels' odds.
Watkins hauled in five touchdown catches against Arkansas after recording only 11 in five seasons of college football before that.
Center Reece McIntyre is also listed as questionable. The sixth-year senior has taken 615-of-678 snaps at center for the season, as well as over 1,300 snaps in his Ole Miss career.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Pick
Based on the handicap of the Ole Miss defense against the Georgia offense, there's reason to believe the steam on the Rebels in the market was sharp in early-week wagering.
Beck has crumbled under pressure this season, as defenses have learned to create pressure with just four defenders.
The soft spot on the Ole Miss defense has been coverage. The Rebels' top-10 ranks in Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives are heavily assisted by a chaotic defensive line and string fundamentals — not the coverage.
The injuries for the Rebels on the offensive side of the ball are massive, making a play on Ole Miss a pre-kick decision.
McIntyre must be cleared to play on the offensive line. If he's not, sophomore Brycen Sanders would be expected to fill in with his 65 career snaps at center.
More importantly, Watkins and Harris represent 36% of quarterback Jaxson Dart's target share and 57% of all receiving touchdowns.
If McIntyre, Watkins and Harris were to play in this game, the bet would be on Ole Miss.
The most stable variable in the game is the Ole Miss defense harassing Beck. With Etienne off the availability report, the Bulldogs could try to establish the rush early in the game to take the pressure off their signal-caller.
However, Ole Miss has dominated inside zone read — Georgia's primary run concept heading into this game.
Keep tabs on Ole Miss' offensive injuries, but bet on the Rebels defense to create plenty of Havoc.
Pick: Georgia Team Total Under 27.5
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Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction
There would be shock and awe to any college football fan if the current NCAAF landscape was presented when last season ended.
Michigan bulled over Washington in Houston to take the 2024 National Championship, but the loss of key players and head coach Jim Harbaugh loomed large over the offseason.
Fast forward to Week 11 of the 2024 season, and the reigning national champions will enter Bloomington as a two-touchdown underdog.
The Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) will take on the Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0) with IU sitting as a -14 favorite with an over/under of 49.5.
After being picked last in the Big Ten, head coach Curt Cignetti now has an undefeated team in Indiana that's set to take on the blue bloods of the conference in this game with Michigan before a bye week and a trip to Ohio State.
As for Michigan, only three games remain to reach bowl eligibility in a championship hangover season. If the Wolverines fail to win in Week 11, Northwestern and Ohio State could keep Michigan from making the postseason.
Let's take a look at my Michigan vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Michigan Wolverines
Despite not covering against the spread thanks to a late Oregon touchdown, there were positive takeaways for Michigan in Week 10.
Quarterback Davis Warren connected on two passing touchdowns to players not named Colston Loveland. While the tight end did receive the most targets with nine, Warren connected with Tyler Morris and Peyton O'Leary in the end zone.
Meanwhile, the rushing attack produced a Stuff Rate below the national average and generated three attempts over 12 yards.
Davis Warren and the Wolverines respond. pic.twitter.com/O3JUIpwX1M
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 2, 2024
The wrinkles in the offense are welcome for head coach Sherrone Moore, as Michigan had become predictable in the run game.
Michigan utilized plenty of inside zone read as its run concept of choice with quarterback Alex Orji producing six rushing attempts and Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings racking up 18 combined carries.
While the offense was a pleasant surprise, the defense's inability to create chaos was uncharacteristic.
Defensively, Michigan boasts the best pass rush in the nation, according to PFF, but produced zero sacks and just five quarterback hurries against Oregon.
A rank outside the top 100 in defending on third downs played a factor, as the Ducks converted 10 of their 15 attempts from an average distance of 4.5 yards.
Michigan's run defense failed to produce any stuffs at the line of scrimmage, sticking Oregon on just five of its 37 attempts.
Oregon produced at least two first downs on 6-of-9 offensive possessions, so the Wolverines defense could show fatigue down the final stretch of the season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana finds itself in the thick of the College Football Playoff race, creating pressure around the team for the first time this season.
The Hoosiers have taken opponents to the woodshed with multiple blowouts, as only Washington and Maryland could stay within two touchdowns.
The biggest argument about Indiana football is its strength of schedule — an area where the Hoosiers rank 103rd. Expect the temperature dial to get turned up with a remaining strength of schedule in the top 15 with Ohio State in Week 13.
Indiana has been one of the best defenses in the nation — a staple of head coach Curt Cignetti's teams throughout his previous stops.
When a strength of schedule is suspect at this time of season, it's important to focus on where the team has had troubles. Indiana's defense sits outside the top 50 in Finishing Drives, early downs explosives and creating contested catches.
The Hoosiers have been one of the best defenses nationally against inside zone, producing a 65% Success Rate and a negative EPA for opponents. That could be huge against Michigan this week.
IU fields two defensive linemen ranked top-25 individually against the run in interior Tyrique Tucker and edge Mikail Kamara.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to action against Michigan State in Week 10, threading the needle for a passing attack that logged four touchdowns.
The Hoosiers offense tripled the national average in explosive drives thanks to the passing attack, while the rushing attack played with a limited playbook.
Rourke returned from surgery for a broken thumb suffered against Nebraska in Week 8. The quarterback was not called on to run the ball, being forced to scramble just once for 20 yards against Michigan State.
1. Underrated pocket mobility
Rourke isn't a top athlete, but he's nimble in the pocket and can scramble while keeping eyes downfield looking for receivers.
He also has the ability to shake off sack attempts with plus-size for position. pic.twitter.com/U4fPKozN67
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) November 5, 2024
Michigan vs. Indiana Pick
Cignetti was clear on the objective for Indiana's offense: protect the quarterback at all costs against an aggressive defensive coordinator in Wink Martindale.
The Hoosiers primarily run zone read on the ground, calling twice as many attempts in that concept than man concepts against Michigan State in Week 10.
Indiana will have plenty of success in zone read with running back Justice Ellison, who leads the team in zone rush attempts while averaging four yards after first contact. Michigan hasn't been great against this concept, ranking mid-FBS in Defensive Line Yards and Success Rate against inside zone read.
Indiana's offense is expected to protect Rourke with additional blockers in the backfield, an area that could cause trouble for Michigan.
The Wolverines produced zero Havoc against Oregon, as the nation's top-ranked pass rush unit failed to rattle Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Martindale's aggressiveness with blitz could be fruitless, as Indiana ranks second nationally in Havoc Allowed thanks to the 11th-best pass-blocking unit.
The Michigan secondary should be under fire with a coverage grade of 90th, as Rourke and Co. lead the nation in On-Target Rate in passing attempts.
Action Network projects Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite, giving numerical value to the Wolverines.
The issue is the cover rate for Indiana, which sits at 8-1 against the spread this season with the best covering margin in FBS (17.2).
With a bye week on deck before a massive showdown with Ohio State, look for Indiana to use its entire playbook in the first half.
The Hoosiers have the 12th-best first-half defense in the nation, allowing an average of 1.1 points in the first quarter. Expect Indiana to be in cruise control during the second half against Michigan.
Pick: Indiana 1H -7.5
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Alabama vs. LSU Prediction
There are plenty of arguments when a college football event is called the "Game of the Century," a title familiar to the LSU and Alabama series.
We have another big one on Saturday when the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2 SEC) head to Death Valley for a Saturday night showdown against the LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-1) in what is essentially a College Football Playoff elimination game for Alabama.
The Tide have gotten the best of the Bayou Bengals of late, as LSU head coach Brian Kelly looks to lead his side to victory for just the 3rd time since 2011.
While a path to the SEC Championship remains intact for Alabama, the Tide find themselves in a must-win game after losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee following a huge win over Georgia. While LSU also has two losses, the difference is the Tigers have a nonconference loss to USC.
Alabama enters as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 58.5. So, where does the betting value lie in this top-of-the-line college football clash?
Let's dive into my Alabama vs. LSU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Handicapping Alabama can be a tricky process, as the team cruised in nonconference play before doing the same in the most recent SEC game against Missouri.
With injuries all over the Tigers' offensive unit, the Crimson Tide defense kept Missouri off the scoreboard while allowing just 3.8 overall yards per play.
However, that data point can be thrown out, as the three-game stretch against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee may reveal more of Alabama's vulnerabilities.
The Volunteers more than doubled the national average in explosive drives, as the Crimson Tide secondary had no answers for Dont'e Thornton out of the slot and Dylan Sampson on the ground.
The Tide also committed 15 penalties for 115 yards — something that has been an issue all season, as Alabama ranks 128th in that area.
Vanderbilt posted nearly doubled the national average in available yards, racking up at least two first downs on eight of its nine offensive possessions. The Commodores' time of possession rose over 42 minutes while they gained 22 first downs.
South Carolina dominated on the ground, posting a 62% Success Rate on 35 attempts while doubling the national average in methodical drives.
In summary, Alabama struggled through that three-game stretch thanks to penalties and opponent offenses that utilized a rushing attack to create first downs and control the clock.
The Crimson Tide defense has been stellar in the opening game plan under coordinator Kane Wommack. Alabama has not allowed its opponent to score in the opening quarter in four of its five SEC games this season.
LSU Tigers
LSU will enjoy home cooking after walking into a hornet's nest in Kyle Field two weeks ago. LSU took a 17-7 lead into halftime before Texas A&M switched gears and put an RPO quarterback under center.
The Aggies scored 31 points in the second half because LSU had no answers for Marcel Reed's zone read in the red zone.
The loss could be chalked up to a game plan that didn't account for a backup quarterback. After all, LSU has been decent against the run all season with numbers inside the top 40.
While the Tigers have been great against run concepts that include counter, LSU allows opponents a 56% Success Rate and positive EPA when they use inside zone read.
Edge defenders Savion Jones and Bradyn Swinson have graded much better against the pass than the run.
The offense has a clear identity with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looking to pass on 61% of snaps. In fact, the rushing attack was all but abandoned against Texas A&M after averaging 1.9 yards on just 21 attempts.
Nussmeier struggled severely against the Aggies, recording a season-high three turnover-worthy plays and three interceptions against Cover 1.
LSU continues to be one of the most methodical offenses in the country, ranking top-20 in quality drives but outside the top 100 in explosives.
Alabama vs. LSU Pick
Alabama's play in the first quarter against top-tier SEC competition cannot be ignored. In fact, the Crimson Tide defense blanked Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri in the opening frame.
The Tide have allowed an average of 2.4 points in the first quarter this season, one of the best marks nationally. A wager on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter should be a part of the portfolio, especially considering other key areas.
LSU has been vulnerable against certain run concepts, specifically against inside zone. The Tigers have been great against counter, a concept Alabama uses on just 8% of rushing attempts. Unfortunately for LSU, the Crimson Tide's most heavily used concept is inside zone, generating a high 57% Success Rate and a positive EPA that produced a big play on 10% of attempts.
The ability to contain Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was key for South Carolina and Tennessee, but LSU has not shown the ability to play contain at the defensive edge position.
LSU has become one-dimensional on offense — an advantage for Alabama since it can minimize blitz against a stellar offensive line and drop more into coverage.
Alabama can stop the methodical drives from LSU's offense, ranking 12th defensively in opponent quality drives allowed.
The biggest advantage for Alabama comes in the ability to harass opponent passing targets, ranking 13th in contested catch rate. Nussmeier has not been one of the more accurate passers, leading LSU to a rank of 52nd in On-Target Rate.
Pick: Alabama First-Quarter ML · Alabama -2.5
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BYU vs. Utah Prediction
The Holy War has returned to college football, this time as a conference game.
The BYU Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) head to Salt Lake City on Saturday night to take on the Utah Utes (4-4, 1-4) in a Big 12 battle. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The stakes could not be higher heading into the Big 12 showdown, as BYU carries an undefeated conference record and a chance of making the College Football Playoff.
The season has played out differently for Utah, which finds itself on a 4-game losing streak.
BYU enters Rice-Eccles Stadium as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under set just above the key number of 41. So, where does the betting value lie?
Let's dive into my BYU vs. Utah predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
BYU Cougars
The BYU administration stood by head coach Kilani Sitake after a severe fall from expectations in 2023. The Cougars won 21 games during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, with a minor dip to 8-5 and a New Mexico Bowl win in 2022. However, BYU failed to make a bowl in 2023 after a tumultuous season in the first year with defensive coordinator Jay Hill.
The coordinator position on the other side of the ball also underwent a change, as Jeff Grimes left for the same role with Kansas.
Long-term offensive staff member Aaron Roderick was promoted to coordinator, thrusting BYU into a top-25 team in creating quality drives.
Jake Retzlaff puts himself into BYU legend 👀
What an ending in Provo!
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) October 19, 2024
There's noise in the numbers for quarterback Jake Retzlaff outside of 18 passing touchdowns this season. The second-year quarterback has struggled in pressured dropbacks, committing seven turnover-worthy plays and no big-time throws.
BYU ranks 102nd in creating uncontested catches on Retzlaff's attempts.
Another component of the methodical offense comes in the ground attack led by LJ Martin. Roderick calls zone-read concepts exclusively, with a minimal pivot to counter and power run.
The Cougars defense has been elite against the pass, ranking 12th in Opponent Success Rate. The secondary pivots between Cover 1 and Cover 3, posting a rank of second nationally in creating contested catches.
The biggest contributor has been lockdown cornerback Marque Collins, who has posted six pass breakups while allowing only half of 36 targets to be caught.
The back of the nickel defense has carried the water this season, as the pass rush ranks outside the top 100. Opponents can also find success on the ground. BYU sits outside the top 100 in opponent rush explosives and broken tackles allowed.
Utah Utes
Utah has been on the struggle bus since late September.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham started the season with four consecutive victories, serving as a heavy favorite to win the Big 12.
However, key injuries and quarterback inefficiency have led to a four-game losing streak against conference teams that are on track to finish at the bottom of the conference.
Isaac Wilson, the brother of former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, took over as starter at quarterback in Week 3 against Utah State.
The results have been tepid, posting nearly double the number of turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws.
Whittingham recently revealed that the quarterback has been dealing with an injury the entire season. If the bye week didn't provide enough of a health boost to Wilson, third-string freshman Brandon Rose will start in his second-ever game.
Here is the play that Isaac Wilson was injured on.#Utes#GoUtes@KSLSportspic.twitter.com/DAWt7TcuWA
— Sam Farnsworth (@Samsworth_TV) October 26, 2024
While the offense has struggled to gain any traction, the defense has kept games close over the past month. Utah has three consecutive losses within one possession, allowing an average of just 20 points over the past four games.
The Utes are elite against the rush, stopping opponents from putting together methodical drives and scoring points in the extended red zone.
The pass defense ranks top-40 in Opponent Success Rate and coverage grading, per PFF.
If there's an area Utah could improve, it's in pass rush and tackles for loss, where the Utes rank outside the top 50.
BYU vs. Utah Pick
The easy handicap in this game comes when the BYU offense takes the field.
Martin has failed to create any elusiveness as a runner with just 16 missed tackles forced and only three yards after first contact. The Utes rank top-10 in both Stuff Rate and third-down defense, putting much of BYU's hopes on the arm of Retzlaff.
Retzlaff has created mistakes in the passing game this season, escaping Oklahoma State and Baylor with victory.
That dynamic could quickly turn into takeaways for Utah, as defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley has helped the Utes become the best team in the country in creating contested catches.
With pass explosives expected to be few and far between for the Cougars, BYU could see limited scoring opportunities.
The handicap becomes less clear when Utah has the ball, especially with interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian leading the way. The journeyman coach has failed to produce offensive numbers above the talent level in previous stops at Northwestern, Boston College and Tennessee.
With Cam Rising done for the season, the bye week served as a chance for Wilson and Rose to run a playbook tailored to their personal skill set under Bajakian.
There are two notables from the Utah press conferences over the past two weeks.
First, Whittingham discussed the need for Wilson to get rid of the ball faster. An average time to throw of 2.9 seconds is well above the desired mark of 2.5 for quarterbacks.
That pairs well with Bajakian's desire for an uptempo offense, an element that failed at his previous stops. While an over is mathematically in play, the element of surprise from the Utah offense could generate as many three-and-outs as uptempo scores.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for BYU to be a favorite of just two points — below the current market offering.
Everything is on the table for the Utah offense, from an uptempo counter run game to Whittingham converting a defensive player like Sione Vaki.
BYU will struggle in a hostile environment in both the running and passing games. With Utah's defense ranking as the best nationally in contested catches, the Cougars could be in for regression from their net turnover margin of +7.
Pick: Utah +3.5 or Better
