Collin Wilson's Betting Card for NCAAF Week 12
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 12 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Week 12 of the college football season is here, so it's time to dive into my NCAAF betting card for Saturday, Nov. 16.
The slate is highlighted by No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Georgia in a game that will have massive SEC Championship and College Football Playoff implications.
A 7-way tie in the SEC is possible, but that won't happen if the Volunteers hand the Bulldogs their third conference loss of the season. Losing at home would certainly send the preseason National Championship favorite to a bowl outside of the CFP.
But before we get there, Saturday's action kicks off when Deion Sanders and the No. 18 Colorado Buffaloes host Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes in a Big 12 battle. The Buffs have defied the odds thus far and sit second in the Big 12 standings, so a win at Folsom Field would go a long way to a conference title game berth in Arlington.
Then, the No. 21 LSU Tigers will head to the Swamp to face the Florida Gators in a game that will be pivotal for their season hopes.
After those first two games, we'll turn our attention to northern California, where the San Jose State Spartans will take on the No. 13 Boise State Broncos and Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty before we conclude the night with the aforementioned top-15 SEC showdown.
With plenty to get to, let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks in my Week 12 betting card for Saturday's slate.
Utah vs. Colorado Pick
The crowd at Folsom Field will look to assist in getting the Colorado Buffaloes (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) into the Big 12 Championship game when they host the Utah Utes (4-5, 1-5) on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Nearly half of Big 12 sits within range of making it to Arlington with the Buffaloes' lone conference loss to Kansas State separating them from the pack. Head coach Deion Sanders survived a trip to Lubbock last week with some help from some questionable officiating.
The Utes, meanwhile, had questionable penalties called against them in a sequence that prevented an upset over BYU in the Holy War. A defensive holding call negated a defensive play that would have all but sealed the victory before BYU kicked a 44-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Utah must rebound from the Holy War loss if it wants to make the postseason. The Utes have been hammered by injuries all season, sitting at 4-5, and need two wins in the final three games to clinch a bowl berth.
Colorado opened as a -10 favorite and took steam to settle at -11.5, while the over/under sits at 46.5.
Let's dive into my Utah vs. Colorado predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Utah Utes
Utah found life at quarterback against BYU with first-time starter Brandon Rose. The freshman connected on 12-of-21 passing without committing a single turnover-worthy play while recording a pair of touchdowns to running back Micah Bernard and tight end Brant Kuithe.
However, Rose suffered a season-ending injury against the Cougars, giving Isaac Wilson the start.
Utah's struggles on the offensive end have come down to injuries and inefficiency this season, ranking bottom-20 nationally in Passing Success Rate, Stuff Rate and Finishing Drives.
Interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian must now deal with losing the best red-zone option on the team, as Kuithe was injured in the third quarter against BYU. Whittingham said the serious nature of the injury would make it season-ending.
The sixth-year senior was second in targets on the offense, just after wideout Dorian Singer.
Kuithe was not just important in the passing game, but he was also a top weapon in goal-line situations in direct snap wildcat packages.
Singer and Kuithe received 14-of-20 targets from Rose against BYU, leaving Utah without a top offensive weapon against Colorado.
Utah's defense continues to be the primary driver, limiting BYU to a low 36% Success Rate in passing attempts. The Utes cooked on third downs, as BYU converted just one of its 12 attempts with an average distance of 9.4 yards to go.
Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley's unit plays a high rate of man and Cover 1 against opposing offenses, ranking as the top defense nationally in creating contested catches, per Sports Info Solutions.
While the rush defense also sits in the top 10 in many advanced analytics, the Utes are top-10 in preventing Quality Drives and Points per Opportunity as well.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado's four-game road winning streak is its longest in nearly 25 years, thanks to three turnovers by Texas Tech in a Week 11 victory. The Red Raiders spotted Colorado prime field position that was converted for 10 points, while a late scoop-and-score touchdown widened the winning margin to two touchdowns.
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders continues to put up video game numbers, going 30-of-43 for three touchdowns.
With injuries limiting LaJohntay Wester and Jimmy Horn, Heisman favorite Travis Hunter has been a dominant force on offense.
Hunter pulled 16 targets against Texas Tech, leading Colorado with 85 on the season, including nine touchdowns. Hunter has now logged 525 snaps on offense and 519 snaps on defense.
Plays like this is why Travis Hunter could be the first CB ever selected first in the NFL Draft
He has elite ball skills as a WR to begin with. A guy like that in coverage as a cornerback? That’s a massive difference-maker for your defense pic.twitter.com/OugQHpNwYM
— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) November 9, 2024
Defensive coordinator Robert Livingston has improved the Colorado defense week after week, ranking inside the top 30 in Havoc.
The 2-4-5 defense sits just outside the top 50 in opponent rushing efficiency and pass rush, but man and Cover 1 have led the Buffaloes to a top-20 grade in coverage per PFF.
Scoring attempts by opponents continue to fall in the way of Colorado, which has moved inside the top 30 in points per trip inside the Buffaloes 40-yard line.
Utah vs. Colorado Prediction
Deion Sanders is not taking Utah lightly, noting his respect for Whittingham and that the Utah defense is best in class. Sanders was happy about the Utes coming to Folsom Field, also indicating that a game earlier in the day was beneficial for the Buffaloes as opposed to a night kickoff.
The biggest handicap in the game will come when Shedeur Sanders takes the field with the Colorado offense against the Utah defense.
Sanders has middling numbers against man coverage, producing a 53% Success Rate in 117 dropbacks. The signal-caller also has average efficiency numbers against Cover 1 — Utah's preferred look defensively.
Colorado's passing game has produced the most success and explosive plays from hitches, the only passing route Utah has failed to defend this season.
The good news for Utah is its top overall rank in creating contested catches, as a battle is expected against Sanders' rank of 23rd nationally in on-target balls.
Utah also ranks second nationally in creating three-and-out possessions by their opponent, an area where the Colorado offense ranks in the bottom 35 of all FBS teams.
Considering the limitations of the Utah offense, a methodical drive out of either team is not expected.
Colorado's scoring differential indicates that there could be struggles out of the gate. The Buffaloes have a negative point differential in the first quarter and a top-10 scoring defense in the third quarter.
The opening script has not produced points for Colorado, but halftime adjustments have put the Buffaloes in the lead and increased their Middle 8 ranking.
Look for this FOX Big Noon kickoff between two West Coast teams to take a few series before generating any kind of offense, as Utah continues to search for an offensive identity without its star tight end.
Pick: First Half Under 23.5
| | | |
LSU vs. Florida Pick
There may not be two teams in the SEC desperate for victory than the LSU Tigers (6-3, 3-2 SEC) and Florida Gators (4-5, 2-4).
While the conference standings could see a 7-way tie for the conference championship game, the Gators are looking to rebound from a blowout at Texas in Week 11. Head coach Billy Napier received a vote of confidence from the administration but still must win 2-of-3 to make bowl season.
LSU will attempt to rebound in the Swamp after being run out of its own building against Alabama. Despite 3 losses on the season, the Tigers can still reach the SEC Championship game in a rare scenario, as the tiebreaker system looks at the strength of opponent.
Struggles with mobile quarterbacks continue after two straight losses against the Tide and Texas A&M. Head coach Brian Kelly was in a similar spot in 2023, losing to Alabama by two touchdowns before beating Florida by 17 the following week.
LSU opened as a 5.5-point favorite, a number that has been bet down to 4.5 as of writing. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 55.
Let's take a look at my LSU vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, Nov. 16.
LSU Tigers
LSU has committed six turnovers in the past two games, an obstacle that has contributed to allowing an average of 40 points to Alabama and Texas A&M.
The Tigers defense under new coordinator Blake Baker has improved from 2023, specifically with a top 20 Havoc ranking that is a product of a top-10 pass rush.
There are other gaps in the defense, as the ability to limit rush explosives and Quality Drives continues to plague the LSU defense.
Mobile quarterbacks have been an issue through the SEC stretch, allowing Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe to log 185 yards on the ground with four touchdowns.
A similar scenario played out the last time the Tigers hit the road, as Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed came into the middle of the game and finished with three rushing touchdowns.
The troubles are not limited to just the past two weeks, as LSU allowed 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers in Week 3.
Another factor converging on the Tigers is quarterback Garrett Nussmeier's spiraling turnover-worthy play rate. LSU has one of the most methodical offenses in the nation — a rank of 12th in Quality Drives — all on the arm of Nussmeier.
The Tigers have abandoned the rush in recent games, as the team ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency with a decreasing run rate of 38% per game.
Deontae Lawson picks off Garrett Nussmeier in the endzone for his first ever career INT!
pic.twitter.com/obb7fUqbq4— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) November 10, 2024
The trouble for LSU in the passing game is the declining efficiency in pressured passing attempts. Nussmeier has a spike in turnover-worthy plays from 1.9% in a clean pocket to 6.5% with pressure.
From a season-long perspective, the offensive line ranks 23rd in pass blocking, but 31-of-96 total pressures allowed have come in the last two games against the Aggies and Crimson Tide.
Florida Gators
Health is the primary concern for Napier, as Florida sits in the middle of a brutal scheduling stretch.
The availability report read longer than a Lord of the Rings novel, as neither running back Montrell Johnson nor quarterback DJ Lagway saw playing time in Austin. Starting right guard Damieon George also missed after playing 42 snaps against Georgia in Week 10.
The Florida offense was a skeleton crew against Texas, but an unexpected bright spot came from the running back position, with Ja'Kobi Jackson going for over 100 yards on 19 carries.
The freshman had a second consecutive productive game, maintaining an average of 3.5 yards after first contact.
JA’KOBI JACKSON RUNS IT IN AND THEY’RE TIED IN JACKSONVILLE pic.twitter.com/5QbO1lG9Bz
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 2, 2024
Napier was cognizant of the defensive issues against Texas, indicating that miscommunication and poor tackling fundamentals contributed to the loss. Florida missed as many tackles against Texas (17) than it did against Georgia and Kentucky combined.
Injuries were a concern on the defensive side of the ball as well, particularly in the secondary without starting cornerbacks Jason Marshall and Devin Moore.
LSU vs. Florida Prediction
The quarterback and cornerback positions are critical for Florida against LSU.
Considering the Tigers' struggles with mobile quarterbacks, Florida will look to get Lagway back on the field. The freshman was crucial in designed rushing attempts against Kentucky, providing an element of mobility that has given LSU struggles.
KD Daniels and Johnson are also expected to be available against the Tigers. LSU ranks near dead last defensively in terms of giving up rush explosives, an area the Gators can exploit.
The health at the cornerback position is critical for Florida, taking on LSU wideouts Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels. With Marshall and Moore, the Gators can continue to execute quarters coverage that requires corners to man up receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project the game as a pick'em with Florida at full health.
Names to watch on the Friday availability report include George on the offensive line, but Lagway's progress is critical. Defensively, Marshall and Moore would provide the stability Florida had in a covering effort against Georgia.
Florida is the play against an LSU team that struggles with mobile quarterbacks if Lagway is cleared.
In the case that Lagway is cleared and the defensive injuries still exist, the over comes into play, as both teams will have minimal resistance in executing their offenses.
Pick: Florida +4.5 (If Lagway Plays)
| | | |
Boise State vs. San Jose State Pick
The 2024 campaign has been a tremendous success for San Jose State under first-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
The Spartans' preseason win total was 4.5, as speculation ran rampant about the former Navy head coach's preferred style of offense.
Relying on the experience of his offensive coordinator, Niumatalolo chose the hybrid run-and-shoot offense that already has San Jose State at six wins with an outside chance of making the Mountain West championship game.
The road to the conference championship runs through the Boise State program, currently undefeated in conference play and looking in at the College Football Playoff with an 8-1 record on the season. The Broncos' lone loss for the season came by a field goal at Autzen Stadium against Oregon in Week 2.
Led by a Heisman-contending running back, Boise State will complete its Mountain West run on the road with back-to-back travel at Spartan Stadium and Wyoming next week.
Boise State opened as a 14-point favorite over San Jose State, a number that has remained just below two touchdowns in weekly wagering, with a 61.5-point over/under.
Read on for our Boise State vs San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Boise State Broncos
Quarterback Maddux Madsen is coming off one of the worst games in his career, committing two turnover-worthy plays and throwing for only 119 yards on 25 dropbacks.
Madsen has seen an increase in recent weeks with his release time, averaging 3.1 seconds to throw against Nevada and San Diego State.
The great news for offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is the Broncos' heavy preference to run the ball behind the nation's best running back, Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty sits at 1,733 yards on the season, a number that is within 1,000 yards of Barry Sanders' all-time single-season record at 2,628 yards.
The outside zone read concept has led the Broncos' rushing attack, ranking in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate.
Where Boise State has handled opponents is possessions that cross the opponent's 40-yard line, ranking as the best offense of all FBS teams in finishing drives. In 58 drives into the extended red zone, the Broncos average 5.2 points per trip.
Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander has plenty of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball.
The 3-2-6 personnel generates defensive havoc at a top-10 clip nationally thanks to a 33% blitz rate, but issues tackling in space continue to plague Boise State. The Broncos rank 130th in Pro Football Focus's Tackling grades, falling to 196th of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed.
Boise State may be without their top defensive player, as sixth-year senior team-captain safety Alex Teubner is dealing with a lower-body injury.
San Jose State Spartans
Niumatalolo selected Craig Stutzmann as the offensive coordinator. Stutzmann was a product of the Nick Rolovich offenses at Hawai’i and Washington State.
The run-and-shoot spread hybrid has successfully created explosive plays despite multiple quarterbacks under center this season. Both Emmett Brown and Walker Eget have over 150 dropbacks, with Eget starting the previous three games.
San Jose State passes on 64% of snaps, using many hitch-and-go routes against opposing coverage. Eget’s time to throw of 2.4 seconds has complemented an offense line in the bottom 10 nationally in Pro Football Focus's Pass Blocking grades.
No handicap on San Jose State is complete without the acknowledgment of receiver Nick Nash. The sixth-year senior leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns. With the bar set at two yards per route run to be an explosive wide receiver, Nash sits just over three yards per route run on 86 targets this season. More than 93% of Boise State passing attempts have seen Nash come out of the slot, putting a target on the safety position for Boise State.
The nickel defense has a do-break mantra. It struggles to stop opponents' rushing attacks but firms up in scoring position.
The front seven has stepped up in short-yardage situations, ranking 39th nationally in Stuff Rate. Still, they've struggled to stop teams in Standard Downs, and they're weak in the pass rush — although ranking top-35 nationally in Pass Efficiency allowed is a bright spot.
While the third-down defense is leaky, the Spartans rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive red zone efficiency this season
Boise State vs. San Jose State Prediction
I expect plenty of points here, especially with San Jose State's high pace (23.7 seconds per pace).
The Spartans rank in the top 50 nationally in creating broken tackles, assisted by Nash's 23 missed tackles forced on 86 catches this year. Nash should create plenty of explosives against Boise's lackadaisical tackling unit, especially with Teubner sidelined.
San Jose State's aerial attack (top 40 in EPA per Dropback) should produce against Boise State's leaky defensive backfield (131st in Passing Downs Explosiveness allowed).
The total sits just below the small key number of 62, and our Action Network projections make the over/under 63.5.
The bigger question is if the Spartans' defense can provide any resistance against Jeanty and the Boise offense.
San Jose State's defense has produced a relatively weak 41% Success Rate against outside-zone read concepts, Boise State's heaviest-used rush concept. Jeanty will likely earn his yards here as he begins to really challenge Sanders' all-time record.
That said, the Spartans' defense should earn enough stops against Madsen and the passing attack, especially with their 59% Success Rate mark in quarters coverage.
The Action Network projects Boise State as a 12.5-point favorite, inside the current market number.
I will watch the refs closely this week after the Mountain West reprimanded Niumatalolo for criticizing the officials in the Oregon State game.
Ultimately, look for Nash to take advantage of a Boise State defense that will be missing their best player in the secondary, keeping the Spartans within the number.
Pick: San Jose State +13.5 or Better
| | | |
Tennessee vs. Georgia Pick
The Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, 5-1 SEC) and Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2) will clash in a high-stakes affair that could serve as an elimination game from both the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff on Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The SEC race could induce a 7-way tie at the top of the standings, but the 1st domino to the path of tiebreaker chaos comes if Georgia can knock Tennessee into the land of 2-losses. The Bulldogs will host the Volunteers with their season on the line after taking a 28-10 loss to Ole Miss in Week 11.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is on track for his first trip to the SEC title game but needs victories in Athens and in a Week 14 trip to Vanderbilt.
Tennessee has enjoyed 4 consecutive victories at home after losing to Arkansas in Fayetteville and struggling to score points in Norman against Oklahoma.
The point spread in this game opened at Georgia -9, but early-week wagering has seen the Bulldogs float closer to a 10-point favorite. The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 48.5.
My Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16 are below.
Tennessee Volunteers
The biggest news for the Volunteers in Week 12 will be the availability of quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
An upper-body injury in the second half against Mississippi State was referenced in Heupel's press conference, as he said his quarterback will "be in a good spot" in terms of his status for Georgia.
The second-year quarterback had hit a stride over the past three games against the defenses of Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State. During that stretch, Iamaleava created six big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play.
Still, a head injury suffered at the hands of the Bulldogs put the quarterback in concussion protocol this week.
This was the last hit Nico took, but then came back in for two plays before the half pic.twitter.com/BlDvfn7g3E
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) November 10, 2024
With Iamaleava out, Tennessee would send out fourth-year reserve Gaston Moore, who completed 5-of-8 passes to conclude the Mississippi State win. Moore has limited experience since the 2021 season, connecting on two touchdowns and throwing three interceptions over 42 career passing attempts.
Without Iamaleava, expect the Volunteers to shift into a full-on rush attack led by running back Dylan Sampson.
The junior has been one of the best rushers in the nation, just shy of Iowa's Kaleb Johnson and Boise State's Ashton Jeanty in touchdowns on the season.
With a top-30 rank in Line Yards, Tennessee will grind on the ground if Iamaleava isn't available.
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has produced one of the most Havoc-minded defenses in college football thanks to a wrecking crew on the defensive line.
Edge James Pearce Jr. has doubled every other Tennessee player in pressures, generating the third-highest total nationally (43).
The secondary was the biggest question mark entering the season but has proved to be a strength for the Vols. Tennessee ranks top-40 in coverage grading and in creating contested catches.
A top-two ranking in third-down defense and Quality Drives has played a large factor in Tennessee going under the total in five of its past six SEC games.
Georgia Bulldogs
In order to maintain a 28-game winning streak at home, Georgia must avoid losing a third SEC game. This will be the last game in SEC play with the Bulldogs finishing the season against UMass and Georgia Tech.
Health has been the primary concern on the offensive line, as left tackle Earnest Greene has fought through injuries while posting blocking grades that have fallen below last year's efficiency.
Greene allowed nearly half of his season total pressures in two of the past three games against Texas and Ole Miss.
In a similar vein, pressure has been the driving factor behind the negative play of quarterback Carson Beck over the past three games.
Carson Beck INT!
Looks like a big win on the way for Lane pic.twitter.com/xjLesTTIte
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) November 9, 2024
Beck has spiraled through his past 12 quarters, committing eight turnover-worthy plays without recording a single big-time throw.
The pressure has been dialed up as well with 37 of the 80 pressures this season coming in the past three games.
Greene hasn't been alone, as right guard Xavier Truss and center Jared Wilson have each had poor pass-blocking games in conference play.
Head coach Kirby Smart was complimentary of running backs Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier for highlight yards against Ole Miss, an option that may be required against a Tennessee defensive line that dominates against the pass.
Georgia committed seven turnovers and had just two takeaways in losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. Smart emphasized the need for more rip-outs on defense, noting that turnover margin is a two-way street.
The defense is as healthy as any point this season with edge Mykel Williams at full speed and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. returning after a six-week absence.
Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has seen his unit fall outside of the top 50 in Havoc while ranking 114th in passes defensed.
From a run concept standpoint, the Bulldogs have been mid-FBS against inside zone and power but have been dominating teams that attempt outside zone and counter.
The 3-3-5 scheme was highly successful in dominating the Ole Miss rushing attack, allowing a 28% Success Rate while stuffing 40% of attempts from the Rebels.
The dominant factor in the win over Texas was limiting scoring attempts — the Longhorns scored just 1.7 points per trip on possessions that crossed the 40-yard line.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction
Iamaleava's status could leave Tennessee one-dimensional on offense. Thankfully for the Vols, that element is the rushing attack, led by Sampson and a heavy amount of inside zone and power run concepts.
The Georgia defense has been mid-FBS in Success Rate against inside zone but has elite numbers in efficiency and creating negative plays against power.
One aspect favoring the Bulldogs is the ability to tackle in space, ranking 21st in broken tackles allowed. Without Iamaleava, Tennessee will be methodical on the ground and struggle to cash in on opportunities with a rank of 82nd in Finishing Drives.
Smart made one thing clear in his weekly press conference: there will be no change at quarterback. Beck's penchant for turnovers will not mix well with a Volunteers defense that's top-five in Havoc.
Scoring should be slow from the start, as each team has fallen outside the top half of all FBS teams in rush and pass explosiveness.
Methodicals by Beck are unexpected against a Tennessee defense that's the best nationally in preventing Quality Drives. Without Iamaleava under center, Georgia would be able to stack the box defensively against Sampson.
Pick: First Half Under 24 or Better
