College Football Predictions for Week 6: Stuckey’s Early-Game Picks for Alabama vs Vanderbilt & More

We begin the Week 6 slate with four Saturday early-game college football predictions for Saturday, October 5.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 11-20-1 (35.5%)
• Overall: 110-90-2 (55.0%)

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Wake Forest +5.5
	4 p.m.	Under 41.5
	4 p.m.	West Virginia +4.5
	4 p.m.	Vanderbilt +24

Wake Forest +5.5 at NC State

12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

I'm still waiting on some injury news, which I'll touch on shortly, but I wanted to write about something in the noon slate since I didn't have anything else circled.

I don't know how many more times NC State has to prove it's not a good football team.

Yes, the Wolfpack beat Northern Illinois by seven at home last week, but the Wolfpack amassed only 176 total yards of offense. They were outgained by over 100 total yards but still pulled out a victory due to a +4 turnover margin.

For reference, Buffalo's inept offense had a better output on the road the week prior against the Huskies.

Even in a pair of earlier home games against Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina, NC State trailed going into the fourth quarter. That same Louisiana Tech team just lost at FIU (which lost to Monmouth the week prior), lost to Tulsa at home, and barely beat Nicholls State in its home opener.

And it's not like WCU has been an FCS juggernaut this season with only one win by seven over Elon. Throw in complete blowout losses against Clemson and Tennessee, and there aren't really any promising data points for the Pack.

While Wake Forest certainly hasn't been lighting the world on fire, the Demon Deacons have been extremely unlucky in a pair of losses by a combined four points.

Against Louisiana, they missed a potential game-tying kick in the final seconds, which came a week after blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead to Virginia in a game they outgained the Hoos by over 100 yards (544-430).

I had this spot circled, but the spread currently sits in a dead range, so I'm going to wait for now since I do want to get some more injury intel on two of Wake's best offensive players: running back Demond Claiborne and wide receiver Donovan Greene, who has been dealing with a lingering leg injury that has limited his snap count the past two weeks.

When healthy, Greene is as dynamic as any receiver in the ACC, as he showed against Virginia earlier this season with an 11 catch, 166-yard performance.

Meanwhile, Claiborne left last week's game in a cart with what was initially reported as a dislocated knee but somehow remarkably returned in the second half and even ran for a long touchdown before leaving the game again with knee swelling.

I'd argue Wake Forest will have the most trustworthy unit on the field with its offense, which has actually been pretty productive under transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He seems extremely comfortable running the slow-developing mesh point RPO scheme, and there's ample skill-position talent to work with at full strength.

Admittedly, the Wake Forest defense is horrendous, but I'm not sure NC State can fully take advantage with freshman quarterback CJ Bailey.

He just doesn't seem fully ready to take off at this level after playing in high school last year with one of the most dominant wide receiver rooms (including Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith) you'll ever find at that level.

Lastly, I do have my concerns about NC State's potential massive special teams advantage, but I just don't think much separates these two clubs at the moment.

I think you get a max effort from Wake with its season on the brink after an unlucky 1-3 start. Historically, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson gets the most out of his team in these spots.

Projection: Wake Forest +3.2

Pick: Wake Forest +4.5 or Better · (Waiting on injuries; follow along in Action App for confirmation)

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Rutgers vs. Nebraska Under 41.5

4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

I had Nebraska circled and played the Huskers -6.5 earlier in the week after Rutgers had one of the most improbable wins of the season against Washington in a game where the Huskies just shot themselves in the foot over and over again.

Not only did they miss three field goals, they also ran onto the field after a blocked field goal, which resulted in a Rutgers first down and subsequent touchdown.

However, I bought most back (go Corn by seven) after seeing the late-week weather forecast, which as of Thursday (it could change), calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph with gusts up to 40 miles per hour.

That will obviously make it much more difficult for both passing attacks and kicking games. Historically, in those conditions, unders over a sample size of over 1,000 games have hit at a 57% clip — and that's against the closing total, which usually comes way down in the market.

Therefore, I wanted to highlight the under I bet in this matchup in case you were exploring a potential play there.

Due to injuries at linebacker, the Rutgers run defense has major issues. The Scarlet Knights rank outside the top 100 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.

However, in these conditions, they can simply load the box since it will be extremely difficult to connect on anything downfield. Plus, the Nebraska rushing attack hasn't had much explosiveness this season, which is an area Rutgers has really struggled to defend.

College Football Early Bets for Pitt vs. UNC, Minnesota vs. USC, MoreRead now

Meanwhile, Rutgers will likely feed stud running back Kyle Monangai, but he'll be running right into the teeth of the Nebraska defense, which boasts a dominant defensive front. The Huskers can also load the box in these conditions, especially against a quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis, who isn't the most threatening downfield passer.

Virginia Tech shut down Monangai (26 carries, 84 yards) by employing that approach in Blacksburg. However, Rutgers took advantage with some shot plays over the top, but that won't be as easy in these conditions.

The Nebraska defense also has some overdue positive late-down regression coming its way.

Both offenses should play at a very slow tempo with a heavy focus on ball control and winning the field-position battle, which both head coaches have harped on.

I'd also expect Matt Rhule and Greg Schiano to take a conservative approach (assuming the game isn't out of hand) on things like fourth-down decisions near midfield.

Hopefully, there aren't any short fields after turnovers and the defenses can make a few fourth-down stops if either team elects to forego field goal attempts in the wind — and judging by Nebraska's kicking woes last week at Purdue, that could very well be the case.

In summary, I ended up playing Nebraska -6.5, Rutgers +7 and under 41.5.

Projection: Nebraska -8.2

Pick: Under 41 or Better · Keep an eye on forecast, which could change

West Virginia +4.5 at Oklahoma State

4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

Oklahoma State is reeling.

After losing at home to Utah without Cam Rising — which looks worse now after the Utes lost by double digits at home (a rarity) to Arizona — the Pokes got dominated at Kansas State by 22.

Even with Ollie Gordon II, the run game can't get going against loaded boxes (131st in Rush Success Rate), and Alan Bowman can't consistently make secondaries pay.

While the Cowboys can't get their run game going, their opponents have had no issues getting whatever they wanted on the ground. Just take a look at what Utah and Kansas State have done the past two weeks even with quarterbacks who don't scare defenses a ton in the passing department:

• Utah: 51 carries for 250 yards
• Kansas State: 34 carries for 300 yards

In those two games, the two lead backs had a combined 40 attempts for 369 yards. That's over nine yards per attempt.

Also, don't forget Arkansas put up over 600 yards of offense in an unlucky loss in Stillwater earlier last month. On the season, Oklahoma State ranks outside the top 90 nationally in EPA per Rush.

Well, guess who comes to town this week? One of the heaviest rushing attacks in the entire country that ranks in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate.

The Mountaineers have also had one of the most explosive offenses in the country, which doesn't bode well for an Oklahoma State stop unit that has struggled in that area.

While the West Virginia run defense has been stout, the secondary has struggled immensely. As a result, Bowman should have a nice day through the air with a solid group of weapons on the outside. However, I just don't see Oklahoma State really slowing down this West Virginia rushing attack.

Without any turnovers or flukes, this looks like the last team with the ball wins, so I gladly took the 4.5 points.

Lastly, the Pokes will play their sixth straight game to start the season, so fatigue becomes a concern, especially on defense after the past exhausting efforts.

It's also worth noting that unit already lost their best player in Collin Oliver and may be down one of their next best in linebacker Nick Martin, who left last week with an injury and was seen on crutches leaving practice earlier this week.

That would be another massive blow to a defense that already had holes. Conversely, West Virginia comes in fresh off a bye, which allowed it to get much healthier across the board.

It does feel like I'm selling a bit low on Oklahoma State after two straight losses, which gives me a bit of pause. However, I fancy the matchup and spot for WVU. Plus, I show value in the number.

Projection: West Virginia +2.9

Pick: West Virginia +4 or Better

Vanderbilt +24 vs. Alabama

4 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

It's hard to imagine Alabama not coming out flat for an afternoon kick against Vanderbilt after that 60-minute thriller against Georgia. That's just human nature.

And while Alabama went for an extended roller coaster ride in Tuscaloosa last week, Vanderbilt enjoyed an early-season bye week, which I believe are even more beneficial for teams that dealt with so much change in the offseason.

I'd expect a few more wrinkles from a very good offensive staff that can potentially exploit a young Alabama secondary, which has been vulnerable to coverage busts throughout the early season.

Additionally, I wanted to target the Commodores as a big underdog all season due to their style of play that's conducive to shortening games, making it harder for favorites to build big margins with fewer possessions.

I haven't gotten much right this season in this weekly piece outside of Vanderbilt games. True to its service academy-esque style, Vandy has covered with ease as a double-digit favorite twice and lost outright as a double-digit favorite in its three games against FBS competition.

And don't take my word for it. Head coach Clark Lea said this week he ideally wants this game to have fewer than 10 possessions! That's obviously music to the ears of anybody taking a three-plus touchdown pooch.

We already saw Vanderbilt go toe-to-toe with another SEC team on the road in an overtime loss at Missouri in addition to a home upset over Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Diego Pavia also went into Auburn last year and won outright as an even bigger underdog with an even more inferior squad.

And while Alabama might be on a different plane, this is still a big number to cover in a brutal situational spot with potentially limited possessions.

Doubting Kalen DeBoer has been a fool's errand in the past, so maybe I'll look like the fool again when Bama comes out fully focused and exploits a very vulnerable cornerback group with Ryan Williams and company. It certainly wouldn't be the first or last time I look witless, but I had to take the 24 here.

Projection: Alabama -22.3

Pick: Vanderbilt +24 or Better