NCAAF Picks for Week 7: Stuckey’s 6 Picks for Late Games

We continue the Week 7 slate with six Saturday late-game NCAAF p for Saturday, October 12.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 21-20-1 (51.2%)
• Overall: 120-90-2 (57.1%)

	7:30 p.m.	LSU +3.5
	7:30 p.m.	Nevada +4
	7:45 p.m.	Under 46.5
	8 p.m.	West Virginia +3.5
	9 p.m.	UCLA +5.5
	11 p.m.	Hawaii +21.5

LSU +3.5 vs. Ole Miss

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

This is a great situational spot for the Tigers, who will come off a bye week to host a Rebels team playing their seventh straight to start the season, including back-to-back tilts against physical SEC foes over the past two weeks.

I also don't mind the matchup for the LSU offense. The Tigers have struggled to run the ball, but that doesn't matter as much in this particular matchup against a legit Ole Miss front.

What LSU can do well is sling the ball around with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who should test a much more vulnerable back end of the Ole Miss defense.

Additionally, the LSU offensive line — which features plenty of future pros — excels in pass protection, which should keep the Rebel pass rush in check, allowing Nuss Bus to cook.

Keep in mind Ole Miss has yet to face a passing attack of this caliber with a schedule that has included the following opponents:

• Kentucky
• South Carolina
• Furman
• Middle Tennessee
• Wake Forest
• Georgia Southern

This could be a bit of a shock to the system, especially if LSU worked out some of the kinks with its new run-blocking scheme to give it any semblance of balance with the emergence of true freshman Caden Durham.

The bye week should also help new defensive coordinator Blake Baker figure out some things with a unit that has dealt with injuries while undergoing a scheme change. The pass rush has at least improved over their past few games.

While better than last year, the LSU defense still has plenty of holes, so I'm not sure if it can fully exploit a vulnerable Ole Miss offensive line in the same way that the dominant fronts of Kentucky and South Carolina did.

Therefore, I won't deny that Jaxson Dart and company will likely enjoy plenty of offensive success — although the potential absence of star wide receiver Tre Harris to injury would definitely lower the ceiling of the Ole Miss offense.

However, given the spot and where I project this spread, I had to back the Tigers at over a field goal in Death Valley in a game that could come down to whichever team has the ball last just like it did last year when these two teams scored 104 combined points.

Projection: LSU +1.5

Pick: LSU +3 or Better

Nevada +4 vs. Oregon State

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

Oregon State has wins this year over Idaho State, San Diego State, the corpse of Purdue and most recently Colorado State in double overtime. Not the most impressive resume on the planet if you ask me.

Now, the Beavers find themselves in a tough situational spot, having to go out on the road for a second straight game in altitude with UNLV on deck after playing a double-overtime game in Colorado.

Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack lost a heartbreaker to San Jose State in the final minute but are still one of the most improved teams in the country, primarily due to an astronomical coaching upgrade.

Keep in mind this Nevada team could easily be 4-0 had it not lost coin-flips against Georgia Southern (extremely unlucky), SMU (has aged much better and blew a lead late) and the aforementioned SJSU game.

The Pack feature a dynamic and complex rushing attack, which should cause fits for a putrid Beaver run defense that ranks outside the top 120 nationally in both Success Rate and EPA per Play.

The Oregon State rush offense has undoubtedly been dynamic, but now it's dealing with injuries in the backfield. Plus, the passing attack remains extremely limited.

Give me the home 'dog in a good spot in a battle of ground-and-pounds.

Projection: 2.8

Pick: Nevada +3.5 or Better

Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Under 46.5

7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

I'd love to fade Vanderbilt this week after its biggest win in program history. This is still a Commodores team that lost as a double-digit favorite earlier this year at Georgia State.

However, I'm not keen on fading the service-academy-esque offense of Vandy as a double-digit underdog and don't love the idea of laying two touchdowns with a still-limited Kentucky offense that hasn't consistently utilized any of the tempo it spoke about in the offseason.

In a matchup between two snails, I'd expect a very slow-paced game with limited possessions and wouldn't be surprised if Vandy came out a bit flat after its monumental win over Alabama. The 'Dores may still be celebrating on Broadway as I write this.

Therefore, I think the best way to attack this potentially flat Vanderbilt spot is to go under the total, which I'm also splitting with its team total under 15.5 as well.

College Football Odds, Picks: Early Bets for Penn State vs. USC, App State vs. Louisiana in Week 7Read now

I expect Vanderbilt to duplicate its same approach as last week as a big underdog when it had the slowest neutral-situation pace of the entire weekend.

I just don't see how this run-first Vanderbilt offense has much success against one of the nation's best defensive front sevens that ranks top-five in Rush Success Rate Allowed.

For reference, the Wildcats held the explosive Georgia and Ole Miss offenses to 13 and 17 points, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats passing attack is still a work in progress (123rd Pass Success Rate compared to 14th in Rush Success Rate), which should be welcome news for a Vanderbilt defense that has fared substantially better against the run (15th Success Rate) than pass so far this season.

Projection: Under 43.7

Pick: Under 45 or Better

West Virginia +3.5 vs. Iowa State

8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

I loved Iowa State coming into the season. However, despite starting 5-0 for the first time since 1980, the Cyclones haven't necessarily lit the world on fire against a very favorable schedule that has included a litany of disappointing teams, including Baylor and Houston in their first two Big 12 games.

Meanwhile, West Virginia has played one of the nation's toughest schedules to date and seemed to figure some things out during its bye week prior to a dismantling of Oklahoma State on the road last Saturday. Keep in mind their two losses have come against a pair of undefeated teams in Pitt (blew a 10-point lead with three minutes to go) and Penn State in the opener.

And while the 'Eers got healthier during the bye week, Iowa State saw the injuries continue to pile up last week in its win over Baylor. It could now be down to a trio of third-stringers on the second level of Jon Heacock's 3-3-5 defense.

From a matchup perspective, it's no secret West Virginia wants to run the ball to set up explosive passing plays off of play-action.

Well, that formula could work against an Iowa State defense that's very vulnerable against opposing rushing attacks in part due to health issues at linebacker.

Iowa State won't get much on the ground itself against West Virginia, but Rocco Becht and the excellent wide receiver duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins could connect on a plethora of chunk passing plays against a vulnerable West Virginia secondary.

With that said, I'll still take my chances with the home running 'dog catching over a field goal in front of a raucous crowd in Morgantown in a battle for first place in the Big 12.

Projection: West Virginia +1.5

Pick: West Virginia +3 or Better

UCLA +5.5 vs. Minnesota

9 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

This isn't the best travel spot for the Bruins, who started out the season in Hawaii and have had two long trips out east already to take on LSU and Penn State.

However, they've at least had a bye week this season. That's something Minnesota can't say, as it will play its seventh straight game to start the season with a trip out west after three straight extremely physical games against Iowa, Michigan and most recently in an upset win over USC.

The Gophers may be a bit flat after those efforts. And they did get a bit fortunate in that victory over the Trojans, going 2-for-2 on fourth down with a +2 turnover margin in a fourth-quarter comeback.

While UCLA has gotten off to a disappointing 1-4 start, keep in mind the Bruins have played the most difficult schedule in the country to date with each of their past four losses coming against teams currently ranked in the top 20:

• Indiana
• Oregon
• LSU
• Penn State

This will be a nice relief against an opponent more in their weight class.

I also do believe the revamped Bruins have been improving as the season has progressed despite the brutal level of competition. I also liked some of the schematic and roster tweaks they made in Happy Valley last week.

Give me the home 'dog in a game that should be an absolute grinder with a pair of teams that don't fancy pace.

Projection: UCLA +3

Pick: UCLA +4.5 or Better

Note: I'm waiting to see if the line goes higher since it's currently sitting in a dead zone.

Hawaii +21.5 vs. Boise State

11 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

Boise State is rolling thanks to the incomparable, current Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty, who seems to go for 200 yards in his sleep.

However, the Broncos could get caught peaking ahead to a massive Mountain West showdown against UNLV up next, which could go a long way in determining their College Football Playoff fate.

As a result, I don't expect them to extend Jeanty more than they have to with the goal of keeping him fresh and healthy for bigger games throughout the season, starting two Fridays from now in Las Vegas.

For proof of that approach, look no further than recent blowout wins over Portland State and Utah State in which Jeanty didn't even get a single carry in the second half.

Meanwhile, the Boise State defense still has glaring weaknesses, especially against the pass, where it ranks outside the top 100 in EPA.

Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager and company should do enough through the air to get to the mid-to-high 20s at a minimum, considering Georgia Southern put up 45 and even Utah State's anemic offense got to 30.

That would likely be enough to cover what I believe is a bit of an inflated number.

While Hawaii remains winless against FBS competition, it easily could be sitting at 4-1 overall if not for blown fourth-quarter leads against UCLA and San Diego State in a pair of three-point losses.

Plus, the backdoor should be wide open if needed with Boise State not likely to keep running it up with UNLV on deck.

Projection: Hawaii +18.6

Pick: Hawaii +21 or Better

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