Half of the games during Championship Week have spreads of two scores or more. The AAC, ACC and MAC title bouts each feature backup quarterbacks. Iowa’s first-half total is set at 0.5.
So, this isn't exactly the most electrifying slate to ever befall these gambling eyes.
But fear not — there are still plenty of ways to spice up your college football weekend.
I’ve dug through close to 70 pages of exotics, player props,and custom parlays to unearth five bets to get your heart racing. Let’s have a look.
SEC Championship Double Result
Alabama Wins 1H & Georgia Wins Game · +700
The Alabama Crimson Tide opened the 2008 college football season ranked 24th in the preseason AP Poll and completed an undefeated regular season in Nick Saban’s second year in Tuscaloosa.
But when they made it to Atlanta, they ran into a Florida team that was simply better equipped to win at the time. Since that 31-20 loss to Tim Tebow and the Gators in the 2008 SEC title game, Saban and the Tide have played 16 games in Atlanta.
The Tide are 16-0 straight up, 7-0 against top-five opponents and won 12 of those 16 contests by double digits, according to Saturday Down South’s Connor O’Gara. Atlanta is a second home to Saban.
The Bulldogs, winners of an SEC record 29 games in a row, have been guilty of sleepwalking through a few first halves this season. They trailed, 14-3, at home to a 5-7 South Carolina team in September before scoring 21 unanswered to close the game.
Two weeks later on the Plains, they entered the locker room tied at 10 with Auburn. They would pull that one out in the fourth quarter thanks to a 40-yard game-winning reception from Brock Bowers.
And Mizzou pulled even with Georgia after 30 minutes a month ago, proving once again that Georgia isn’t a team that can be counted on to start fast week in and week out.
What you can count on is Georgia to close things out in the second half.
The Bulldogs’ second-half point differential average is +10.2 points per game. That’s the best in the SEC and even more impressive when you consider they’ve increased their first-half point differential in the past month while facing four straight bowl teams, three of which were ranked in the top 20 of the CFP rankings at the time of their meeting.
Kirby Smart and his coaching staff continue to prove they can make in-game adjustments to win in the fourth quarter, and I’m banking on that again in the SEC title game.
I foresee Alabama coming out swinging as a rare underdog and Georgia grinding out a second-half win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
At north of 6-1, this is the kind of hit that can make your weekend.
Anytime Touchdown Parlay
3 Legs · +480
- Washington WR Rome Odunze (-138)
- Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II (-138)
- Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan (-105)
When it comes to touchdown parlays I want to maximize my touches across the board. All three players here should have game plans built around them.
Rome Odunze continues to be a target hog for the Huskies. He’s turned 31 targets in the past three games into 337 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Earlier this season against Oregon, he was targeted 12 times and turned in a line of 8/128/2 against the Ducks. With a game script that could feature Washington playing from behind, he’ll have every opportunity to nab a touchdown in Las Vegas.
Ollie Gordon II isn’t a surefire bet if Texas jumps out to a huge lead. But if Oklahoma State keeps things close for three quarters, he’s in line for 20-plus carries and a few targets out of the backfield.
The Doak Walker favorite has been the focal point of this offense since late September. If you remove the Pokes’ blowout loss to UCF, OGII’s impressive two-month run has seen the sophomore average 27 carries for 181 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game.
The reason why this number is so reasonable at -138 is that the Texas run defense is incredibly stout, particularly in the red zone. Luckily, Gordon is a big-play specialist having sprung seven 40-yard runs — more than any other player in the nation this season.
And finally, TCU’s Emani Bailey ran for 98 yards and a touchdown in a near upset of Texas three weeks ago, which gives me faith that Gordon can find the end zone at least once on Saturday.
Louisville can’t entertain an upset of Florida State without a big game from Jawhar Jordan.
I just mentioned OGII’s big-play ability, and Jordan is in the same class. He has burst and displays excellent agility in the open field.
He’ll also have the benefit of playing a much worse run defense on Saturday night. Florida State checks in at 95th in explosive running plays allowed this season. Opponents can burn the Noles with the traditional running game, and I expect Brian Brohm to dial up a lot of play calls for No. 25 in the ACC title game.
Jordan has eight games with at least 16 touches, and in those eight contests, he cashed in for 10 touchdowns. He’ll be the focal point of the Louisville offense for four quarters.
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Big Ten Championship's First Score
Michigan Wolverines Field Goal · +325
In Iowa’s 10 games against power conference opponents this season, the first scores have broken down like this:
- 5 Field Goals
- 4 Touchdowns (All Iowa)
- 1 Safety
No Power 5 team has opened a game against Iowa with a touchdown this season. Yet, the market lists a Michigan opening touchdown at -165 and a field goal at +325.
Michigan is a very good, if not elite red-zone offense that ranks 16th in touchdown percentage, but it's unlikely to hit a big play for a touchdown. The Wolverines are 112th in offensive explosiveness, which is surprising given J.J. McCarthy’s ADOT being well above 10 this season.
What that tells me is that Michigan will have to earn it on this opening touchdown with a methodical drive that's cashed in inside Iowa's 20-yard line. Iowa’s red-zone defense is elite, ranking third in scoring percentage and second in touchdown rate at 37.5%.
Only historically good defenses like 2021 Georgia (28.1%) finish with sub-30% touchdown rates. In a game that has a massive spread and is universally viewed as a snoozer, this is the sexy prop bet to hit given the payout.
Ricky White Over 149.5 Receiving Yards (+390)
Brennan Marion’s famed GoGo offense has helped UNLV achieve its best season in nearly 40 years of football. The Rebels offense is balanced, gets a handful of running backs involved and relies on one big-play threat on the perimeter.
That receiver out wide is Ricky White, and he’s one of the most underrated pass-catchers in all of college football. This season, he’s racked up 1,300 yards while averaging an eye-popping 17.3 yards per reception.
And when it comes to hitting this exotic, he’s proven time and again that he can do it, exceeding 149.5 receiving yards in five of his last 10 games.
And here comes the Boise State secondary, which is a complete and utter disaster. The Broncos ranks 80th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 112th in explosiveness allowed through the air. They also rank 104th in PFF coverage grading.
This team lets receivers run loose in the defensive backfield, and White is primed for a field day.
This game has the second-highest total of championship weekend and could easily devolve into a high-scoring affair. That would be music to my ears and anyone holding this player prop milestone.
SMU & Tulane Under 20 Points Each (+650)
SMU was in the midst of a dream run. It was on its way to its eighth straight win, an undefeated season in AAC play and enough momentum to potentially catapult it into a New Year’s Six bowl game.
And then star quarterback Preston Stone broke his leg while playing with a 42-point lead against Navy. That put a real damper on this game and suggests two things.
The first is that SMU will tailor a game plan around its deep running back room to protect redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings, who has all of 46 career pass attempts.
And the second thing is that it'll need an inspired effort from its defense to hang around for four quarters.
Luckily for the Ponies, they have one of the very best Group of Five defenses. The Mustangs finished the regular season fourth in Defensive Success Rate, 14th in Havoc and were just flat-out impressive against the pass. Opposing passers mustered just 5.9 yards per attempt, and SMU finished top nationally in Success Rate on passing downs.
And now there’s a storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico that will bring rain and sustained winds to Yulman Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Even without adverse weather conditions, Tulane’s Michael Pratt hasn’t been the superstar we've become accustomed to watching for the past two years.
Both Pratt and this offense have looked flat lately, evidenced by a 13-point outing against lowly East Carolina and an ugly 24-22 win over Tulsa in which Pratt’s QBR was 34.9.
In the Green Wave’s past four matchups, Tulane has averaged just 22.5 points per game.
I could see SMU flummoxing Pratt and doing its best to shrink this game with an above-average ground game and green starting quarterback.
At +650, I’m willing to roll the dice that this is one of the lowest-scoring games of the weekend outside of Iowa-Michigan.
