Week 11 of the college football season has arrived, and there are some incredibly high-profile games this week with major College Football Playoff implications. Pressure is mounting, and it's time to see what teams are made of.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Over the last six weeks, we've hit 12-of-24 plus-money ML underdog bets in this column, averaging a profitable payout on the 2s each week.
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +494
- By 3's: +1302
- 4-Leg Parlay: +3255
Pick #1: Ole Miss ML vs. Georgia (+114)
A year ago, Georgia trounced Ole Miss, hanging more than 50 points on the Rebels and winning by five-plus scores.
But this is not the same Ole Miss team as last year. Instead, it's a much-improved version with balance in all facets of the game.
Ole Miss ranks inside the top 20 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed, and also Pass Success Rate on offense. It isn't far behind in Rush Success Rate, ranking 26th. This is a great offense and a great defense.
The same cannot be said for Georgia, which ranks inside the top 20 in just Pass Success Rate allowed. But good luck against an Ole Miss passing attack that's fourth in Pass Success Rate on its own end.
If there were any questions on the status of the Ole Miss offense, those were answered last week, when the Rebels hung 63 points on the road at Arkansas.
Georgia has been vulnerable on the road this year, already losing a game at Alabama and sneaking by an underwhelming Kentucky team by just one point.
Take Jaxson Dart, who has the ability to extend plays with his legs just like Milroe did for Alabama, and the Rebels offense to get the win.
Pick #2: Texas Tech ML vs. Colorado (+145)
As the season gets closer and closer to the finish line, it has become clear that Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes are a real factor in the Big 12 race… for now.
The Buffs have taken care of business against overmatched opponents in recent weeks, but they have been the recipients of a favorable schedule. Colorado has yet to pay a Big 12 opponent ranked inside the top five of the conference standings.
Enter Texas Tech, which is coming off of an emotional win on the road over previously undefeated Iowa State. Quarterback Behren Morton led the Red Raiders down the field on the final drive of the game to steal a win in the final minute.
The Red Raiders offense has been much improved in recent weeks, leaning on running back Tahj Brooks, who has topped 100 yards in all eight games this season.
Brooks and Morton make up a well-balanced Texas Tech attack that should cause some problems for a Colorado defense that ranks outside the top 30 in both Rush Success and Pass Success allowed this season.
Back Texas Tech to win, putting an end to Colorado's Big 12 title hopes for good.
Pick #3: Vanderbilt ML vs. South Carolina (+136)
You mean to tell me that we get to back Diego Pavia as a home underdog… again?
I don't need to be convinced much beyond that, given that Pavia has been a bettor's dream this season. Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS on the year but has been the biggest cheat code to moneyline underdog bettors all year long.
Vanderbilt has won four games outright as an 8-point dog or more, including wins at Auburn last week, at Kentucky at home vs. Alabama and vs. Virginia Tech back in Week 1.
This team has been a giant slayer all season, and it's time for Pavia and the Commodores to get the respect they deserve.
The only problem? South Carolina has also been great when healthy and is riding hot after its home win over Texas A&M last week.
Something has to give, but the biggest reason for hope for Vanderbilt is this: its one major weakness has been Pass Success Rate allowed, where they rank 75th nationally.
However, South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has thrown for 200-plus yards just twice all season, and the Gamecocks aren't comfortable winning a game through the air.
I'll gladly scoop up Pavia as an underdog yet again.
Pick #4: Missouri ML vs. Oklahoma (+124)
Two of the most banged-up teams in college football will meet here, as Missouri quarterback Brady Cook has been hurt and Oklahoma has been without tons of key players all month.
Given Cook's status, Missouri will be happy to lean into its rushing attack. That may be a good plan, as the Tigers are 3-0 on the year when they run the ball 40 or more times in a game.
As iffy as Missouri has been offensively with Cook hobbled, Oklahoma has been worse, scoring just 26 points total in its last three SEC games combined.
It hasn't always been pretty, but Missouri has gotten the job done at home this season and is an impressive 5-0 in its own stadium. The No. 24-ranked Tigers still have plenty to play for, and the same can't be said for this version of the Sooners.
Back the Tigers outright to close out our Round Robin this week.
