Week 5 of the college football season is here, and we have an incredible slate of games to choose from this week as we get closer and closer to the midway point of the season.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be a very effective way of betting underdogs.
Each week, I'll be back with a long-shot parlay/round robin that will hopefully turn out some profit.
Some weeks will have just a handful of games involved, while there may be more legs in other weeks. And remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
Read on for my Week 5 college football parlay and round robin.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +330
- By 3's: +941
- 4-Leg Parlay: +2452
Pick #1: BYU ML +142 at Baylor
A defensive battle is in store here, as both teams have major advantages on that end of the field against their respective opposing offenses.
Baylor's run defense is ranked 11th nationally in our rush success against metric, while BYU's pass defense is ranked 12th in pass success against. It'll be a battle of strengths.
Can BYU's pass defense shut down a Baylor passing attack that's dealt with injury issues, or can Baylor's run defense stop a BYU team averaging 136 yards per game?
As mentioned, injuries loom large. Baylor's preferred starting quarterback — Dequan Finn –missed the loss to Colorado with a rib injury.
His status is still up in the air, but backup Sawyer Robertson was just okay in his absence. Robertson finished with 148 yards passing and needed to lean on his legs more to find success. The BYU defense should be able to contain Robertson through the air.
On the flip side, BYU is coming off an impressive game in which it dominated Kansas State en route to a 29-point home win. BYU's run game has been balanced over the course of the year, with five players on the team getting anywhere from 16 to 28 carries.
Against Kansas State though, a new face emerged in the backfield. Sione I Moa, a freshman running back that had only tallied six carries on the year coming into last week's win, led the team with 15 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Moa's development will be critical to BYU's chances in the Big 12, but with a multitude of options and Moa's emergence, it's more likely that BYU finds cracks in the Baylor rush defense than Robertson getting going through the air.
Take BYU ML here.
Pick #2: Arkansas ML +145 at Texas A&M
Texas A&M is still dealing with issues at quarterback, as Conner Weigman will be a gametime decision again due to an AC joint sprain that he suffered against Notre Dame.
He didn't dress in A&M's most recent game against Bowling Green, and without him, the Aggies will be forced to rely on freshman Marcel Reed.
Reed is a dual threat, but that may be generous to his arm, as almost all of his value comes as a rusher. He has 118 yards produced on designed runs this year.
If Reed is back under center, Arkansas' 19th-ranked run defense will be put to the test. But stopping the run is what the Arkansas' defense has done best.
For Arkansas offensively, Taylen Green has been stellar in its wins. The Razorbacks are aggressive on early downs, ranking ninth nationally in passing attempts on first downs.
Texas A&M ranks just 74th in opponent pass EPA, and it's vulnerable to big plays in those situations. Green has completed two times as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays, and he'll be the best player at the quarterback position in this game.
Arkansas won as a similarly-valued moneyline underdog last week at Auburn, and if Green plays well, it'll have a great chance to make it two in a row.
Pick #3: TCU ML +105 at Kansas
Both teams will put up points in this one, as the defenses have left a lot to be desired this season. Kansas allowed a late fourth-quarter comeback to West Virginia last week in a loss, while TCU was even more disappointing, allowing 66 points to SMU in embarrassing fashion.
Both teams are 0-4 against the spread this year, so it's fair to call them two of the most underwhelming teams in all of college football. Something has to give.
Series history gives the Horned Frogs a good shot here, as TCU has owned this matchup historically. TCU has defeated Kansas in 10 of their last 11 meetings.
The biggest change from last year's much more potent Jayhawks is the loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Without their star play caller, this year's Jayhawks offense has been a lot more … average.
The difference in this game could come down to play at the quarterback spot, where TCU's Josh Hoover has been decisively better than Kansas' Jalon Daniels. Daniels looks nothing like his old self, with four touchdowns to seven interceptions on the year.
That won't cut it against the Horned Frogs.
Pick #4: Alabama ML +110 vs. Georgia
We need the version of Georgia that let Kentucky hang around for 59 minutes to show up in this one.
Georgia has failed all season long to establish a quality rushing attack. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 60 in every important rushing category, including line yards and rushing success rate.
Quarterback Carson Beck has been well-protected on the year, but he's still struggled to generate big plays. While Beck avoids turnovers, he ranks just 116th in the country in hitting his targets in stride.
When you add it all up, there's just no area of the Alabama defense that the Georgia offense can exploit. Bama ranks in the top 20 against both rush and pass success on the season.
Offensively, Jalen Milroe has been nearly perfect on the year. He only has one turnover-worthy play, and continuing that will be more than enough for Alabama to get the win here at home.
