Week 8 of the college football season is here, and bettors have plenty of high-profile matchups to choose from.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Last week, this article hit two out of our four legs, paying out the 2s in our round robin at +457 odds. Over the last three weeks, we have hit seven of 12 plus-money ML underdog bets in this column, so let's do it again.
Each week, I'll be back with a long-shot parlay/round robin that will hopefully turn out some profit.
Some weeks will have just a handful of games involved, while there may be more legs in other weeks. And remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +308
- By 3's: +862
- 4-Leg Parlay: +2500
Leg #1: Arkansas ML vs. LSU (+102)
Both Arkansas and LSU are trending in the right direction, as the Razorbacks handed Tennessee its first loss the last time out and LSU just pulled off an upset against a talented Ole Miss squad last week.
Arkansas had a week off to prepare for this one, while LSU is in a difficult spot emotionally coming off of the highs of the Ole Miss win.
LSU received the benefit of some lucky swings in the Ole Miss win, with penalties, injuries and a few fourth-down conversions all swinging its way.
Luck also played a factor in LSU’s win over South Carolina earlier this year, with a quarterback change due to injury and questionable calls coming into play.
Quarterback Taylen Green has been injured, which is why last week’s bye week is so critical here. Green has been practicing again, and I'm expecting him to play.
Given the situational spot — and Arkansas’ performances in big games this year — the Razorbacks should take care of business at home.
Leg #2: Illinois ML vs. Michigan (+136)
Illinois was dominating Purdue last week before taking its foot off the gas in the second half, nearly costing it a loss to a miserable Boilermakers squad.
We expect a fully focused version of the Illini here, even against a Michigan team coming off its bye.
The Michigan defense has all the talent in the world, but through eight weeks of the season, it hasn't lived up to its projections, particularly against the pass.
Michigan ranks 68th in the country in Pass Success Rate allowed, and Illinois is 25th in Pass Success Rate.
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is coming off his best game of the season, completing 20-of-34 passes for 379 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Altmyer has been sensational this season, and he has 14 touchdowns to just one pick on the year overall. He'll be able to avoid mistakes against a Michigan pass defense that has more cracks than it may appear and get the victory at home.
Leg #3: Michigan State ML vs. Iowa (+170)
This is a great situational spot to target this week, so shoutout to Stuckey for highlighting it in his weekly piece.
Michigan State has lost three straight, but the two most recent defeats have been blowouts at the hands of the two best teams in the Big Ten, Oregon and Ohio State.
The Spartans haven't played a game in 15 days, going back to their loss at Oregon two weeks ago.
The Spartans are in Year 1 of the Jonathan Smith era, but historically, Smith has been stellar when he has extra time to prepare. His teams are 10-2 ATS when they have extra time (eight or more days), and an incredible 8-1 as an underdog ATS in those games.
On the flip side, Iowa is coming off a very misleading win over Washington in which the Hawkeyes were outgained by 65 yards but won by 24 points, thanks to a variety of Washington errors.
Michigan State ranks in the top-30 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, which is huge against an Iowa team that has no confidence through the air.
The Spartans' defense will keep its team in the game at home, and if Aidan Chiles can make a big play or two, Michigan State can easily win.
Leg #4: South Carolina ML at Oklahoma (+102)
Oklahoma has been an extremely injured football team this year, and it hasn't put a fully healthy football team on the field since its early-season win over Temple.
This is a revenge game for Shane Beamer, who returns to Norman following three years on the Oklahoma staff from 2018-2020.
When LaNorris Sellers has been healthy, he's been a big-play machine. Sellers is full-go again, and South Carolina will have the advantage under center.
For Oklahoma, it's been freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who hasn't looked the part. The wide receiver room has been extremely banged up, which hasn't done Hawkins any favors.
The Oklahoma offense ranks outside of the top-100 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate.
With all the injury concerns — and with a coaching staff that's well-familiar with Brent Venables’ teams — South Carolina is the side to back.
