Week 9 of the college football season is here, and we're getting closer and closer to the College Football Playoff.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Last week, this article hit two out of our four legs, paying out the 3s in our round robin at +1187 odds. Over the last four weeks, we've hit 10 of 16 plus-money ML underdog bets in this column, so let's do it again.
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +396
- By 3's: +1338
- 4-Leg Parlay: +4072
Leg #1: BYU ML at UCF (+105)
This is a game between two teams whose seasons couldn't be on more different trajectories heading into this week.
UCF has lost four straight games — two at home to Colorado and Cincinnati and two on the road at Florida and Iowa State.
The Golden Knights were more competitive against a quality Cyclones team, but they've been forced to make personnel changes that speak to just where things are at.
Transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson has been benched in favor of Jacurri Brown. Actually, Brown's poor play was a big reason why UCF fell short at Iowa State, as he completed just 8-of-20 passes with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.
BYU ranks 14th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, so UCF won't get going through the air in this one.
On the flip side, UCF's defense has struggled with balanced offenses. UCF's defense ranks seventh in Rush Success Rate allowed, but it's just 79th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The door is open for BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who made all the necessary plays late to keep the Cougars undefeated last week. Back BYU, the far better team with much more to play for, to get the road win.
Leg #2: Wisconsin ML vs. Penn State (+190)
The classic lookahead spot has bitten plenty of teams throughout college football history.
That's what faces Penn State this weekend as it takes a trip to Madison that's been very tough historically.
Penn State faces Ohio State at home next week, and it'll be hard for the Nittany Lions not to look past Wisconsin.
Since losing by 17 at USC last month, Wisconsin has outscored three Big Ten opponents (Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern) by a score of 117-16.
The big change has been the insertion of sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke. Locke has looked more comfortable in recent weeks, averaging 253 yards passing over the Badgers' three-game winning streak.
Penn State is a balanced team that grades out favorably in nearly every category, but Wisconsin isn't as far behind as you may think at first glance. The Badgers rank in the top 55 nationally in Rush Success Rate, Pass Success Rate, Rush Success Rate allowed and Pass Success Rate allowed.
Nothing will be easy for Penn State on the road here, and the lookahead spot is worth a ML play.
Leg #3: Michigan State ML at Michigan (+142)
Imagine if we could time travel a year in the past and tell both these football programs where they would be today.
Gone is Mel Tucker and Jim Harbaugh, and in steps Jonathan Smith and Sherrone Moore into their respective first chapters in one of the most heated rivalries in college sports.
The first edition of Smith vs. Moore takes place in Ann Arbor, where Michigan has narrowly avoided disaster twice already this season, surviving against Minnesota and USC by three points in each game.
Michigan is just 1-6 against the spread on the season, and it continues to be one of the worst values in the sport.
The primary reason for Michigan's demise is how one-dimensional its offense has become. Moore has cycled through three quarterbacks already and won't name a starter mid-week before this game.
The only area that Michigan can find consistent success in is on the ground, where it ranks 32nd nationally in Rush Success Rate.
The problem this week? Michigan State is good defensively against the run.
The Spartans rank 25th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. They bottled up Iowa superstar running back Kaleb Johnson last week, holding Johnson to 23 yards rushing on 13 attempts (outside of one 75-yard run late in the fourth quarter after Michigan State had separated on the scoreboard).
Michigan State has the better quarterback, the better coach and the advantage in the one area that Michigan does well offensively.
Back the Spartans.
Leg #4: Texas Tech ML at TCU (+190)
Speaking of spot bets: Bettors are catching some value here based on last week's results.
The Red Raiders have been the better football team for much of the season, but they laid an egg last week against Baylor, losing 59-35.
On the other hand, TCU had lost three of its previous four before sneaking by a banged-up Utah team, 31-7.
TCU has struggled in high-scoring games, losing at home to UCF in a 35-34 barn burner and also giving up 66 points in a loss at SMU.
Texas Tech's offense has been capable of huge scoring bursts, dropping 44 on Cincinnati and scoring at least 28 points in six of seven games this season.
Texas Tech has been excellent at Offensive Finishing Drives this season, ranking fourth nationally at scoring when it gets within striking distance. That's been a weakness for the Horned Frogs' defense, as it ranks just 89th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Red Raiders shouldn't have issues moving the ball into scoring range in this one and getting seven when they get there.
In a bounce back spot, Red Raiders ML is the play.
