After escaping as a heavy favorite at Nevada in Week 0 and losing outright as a double-digit favorite against BYU, SMU may have fallen off the national radar for some.
However, the No. 20 Mustangs have won five straight and are 7-1. The Mustangs have a chance to win the ACC in their first year in the league, but will first welcome another top-20 opponent to town as they host the No. 18 Pitt Panthers.
SMU hasn't lost in over a month, but Pitt (7-0) hasn't lost all season and that brings me to my college football same game parlay for Pitt vs SMU.
Pitt vs. SMU Picks & College Football Same-Game Parlay
- Brashard Smith 70+ Alt. Rushing Yards (-186)
- Kevin Jennings 225+ Alt. Passing Yards (-122)
- Desmond Reid 25+ Alt. Receiving Yards (-230)
- Konata Mumpfield 50+ Alt. Receiving Yards (-158)
- Pitt +10.5 (-172)
Parlay Odds: +921 via FanDuel
Brashard Smith 70+ Rushing Yards
While at Miami, Brashard Smith received just 18 carries in three years while working as a slot receiver. He remains a threat in the passing game, but Smith has also proven capable of handling the duties of a lead back.
In his first season at SMU, Smith has ran for 745 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He is third-leading rusher in the ACC and is tied for second in rushing touchdowns.
Smith has run for 70 yards in five of eight games this season and has gone over 100 yards four times.
In two of the misses, he finished with exactly 67 yards, including a game at Stanford in which he was suspended for the first half. With the exception of that game, he has received double-digit carries in five of his past six games.
On paper, Pitt doesn't present the easiest matchup. The Panthers are ninth in the FBS in rushing yards allowed, surrendering 93.9 per game. However, Pitt is 120th in Explosiveness Allowed and 84th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
That will work to the advantage of a big-play threat like Smith. He has recorded at least one 15-yard run in every game this season, including two that went over 40 yards.
Additionally, Pitt has allowed at least one rusher to go over 70 yards in four of its past six games with North Carolina's Omarion Hampton and Cincinnati's Corey Kiner both going over 100 yards. Smith will have the opportunity to join that group this week.
Kevin Jennings 225+ Passing Yards
Jennings came into the week questionable with an undisclosed injury.
However, head coach Rhett Lashlee said he received clearance to play, which is good news for the Mustangs. Jennings assumed the starting role on a full-time basis after the loss to BYU. He has thrown for 225 yards in four of those five starts, including 250 yards in each of his past four games.
This leg aligns directly with Pitt's weakness as the Panthers are allowing 255.6 passing yards per game.
Pitt is 65th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 124th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Pitt has allowed at least 265 passing yards in each of its past three games and 210 yards in each of its past six games.
Jennings has a deep group of pass catchers at his disposal and rather than guessing whose turn it will be this week, I'm going to back Jennings to continue spreading the ball around.
Desmond Reid 25+ Receiving Yards & Konata Mumpfield 50+ Receiving Yards
Like Jennings, Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein has been slinging the ball around all season.
The redshirt freshman is averaging 258 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns against five interceptions. His leading receivers this season have been wide receiver Konata Mumpfield and running back Desmond Reid.
Mumpfield has 27 receptions for 473 receiving yards with two 100-yard games this season. He has recorded 50 receiving yards in five of Pitt's first seven games.
Meanwhile, Reid has 341 receiving yards on 25 receptions this season. He leads all ACC running backs in receiving yards and already has three games with 50 receiving yards.
Now, neither Reid nor Mumpfield hit these lines last week, but that was an anomaly. Pitt is averaging 443.6 yards of offense per game, but scored 41 points on 217 yards last week because Kyle McCord was in such a giving mood.
Pitt +10.5 (-172)
As mentioned, I am expecting a high-scoring game, but adding the over doesn't add much to the odds of this parlay.
However, I expect a shootout because I see both teams going back and forth. This could be the kind of game where we find value live betting, maybe catching Pitt +14 if SMU goes up early or hitting the SMU moneyline at -115 or at plus odds if Pitt goes up early.
Ultimately, I expect this to end as a one-possession game, which is why I like the Panthers to stay within 10 points.
Four of Pitt's five games against Power 4 opponents have been decided by 10 points or less. That includes some games where it needed to rally late to win and somewhere it was clinging to a lead. Pitt games have been a thrilling ride this season.
Some may say the Panthers can't keep living off turnovers as they've forced 13 in seven games.
That may be true, but SMU turned the ball over six times last week and survived 28-27 at Duke. If SMU has more than three turnovers again this week, the Pitt moneyline will be in play.
Additionally, SMU has seen a fair share of tight games with four contests being decided by seven points or less.
From an SMU standpoint, I see this game resembling its 34-27 victory at Louisville. That would give Pitt a cover and also likely provide big plays on both sides, giving us the chance to cash this +900 parlay.
