After a decent enough Thursday outcome, sharps are onto Friday night — not that they haven't been for quite some time. Like the rest of the Week 1 slate, tonight's games have been available in the betting market for weeks to months, meaning wiseguys have had ample time to shape these lines.
Tonight's deck is a bit lighter, featuring just eight FBS matchups, but three plays have still seen plenty of smart money leading up to today — including both the side and total of Okie State vs. Oregon State.
All odds above are as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday and via PointsBet.
Purdue vs. Nevada
9:30 p.m. ET | CBSSN
This total is following an eerily similar track as last night's Texas State-A&M over/under.
After opening in the 57/58 range, this total still sits anywhere from 57.5 to 58. And just as was the case in last night's game, that open-to-current movement (or lack thereof) doesn't tell the whole story. Once again, the complete line history is needed to understand how sharps have shaped this number.
The over has been far more popular (surprise, surprise), getting 63% of bets to this point. In the early going, that backing convinced oddsmakers to nudge this number up as high as 59.5. With no Sports Insights Bet Signals triggered over that rise, it's unlikely that sharp action had anything to do with it.
Instead, those signals began to light up immediately afterward, and have continued to come in over the past few days on the under.
Overall, the under has drawn four sharp moves at totals ranging from 59.5 to 58.5, bringing this total back to its opening range. The 37% of under bettors have also accounted for 55% of actual money being wagered, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are mixed into that minority.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 59.5 to 57.5)
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.
Oklahoma State @ Oregon State
10:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Tonight's final matchup is a far more classic pros-vs.-Joes showdown.
Oregon State was … not good in 2018. The Beavers won just just two games overall (one of which came against Southern Utah), and are generally considered among the worst, if not the worst, Power 5 team. That makes them a perfect candidate to be on the "Joes" side of this split.
Ha, no. Just kidding.
Oregon State is unsurprisingly getting the minority of bets tonight (although its 39% backing is actually quite a bit higher than what I would've predicted), which makes the line move from +17 to +14 a significant one.
“We’ve gone from 17 down to 13.5 on that one…”@chadmillman and bookmaker Bob Scucci breakdown this weekend’s football action, including a Pros vs. Joes battle in Corvallis.
Listen & Subscribe: https://t.co/5mIQhKCWWBpic.twitter.com/Uci02cjFzB
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 28, 2019
Four SI Bet Signals have revealed sharp action on the home team, driving this number down to the key two-touchdown margin. It's worth noting that many shops went past the key number to +13.5 — and a couple are still listing that line — but most that did have been bet back up to +14.
Oregon State's 39% backing currently makes up for 58% of spread money.
As for the total, this game is boasting the highest number (71.5/72) on tonight's slate by a considerable amount. No other game is expected to reach even the 60-point mark.
With just 27% of bets on the under comparing the current number to the opener of 73.5 hints at a bit of sharp action, but once again that fails to capture the entire story.
This total actually reached as high as 77 thanks to some early pro action (which by the looks of the current landscape could certainly have been a setup) before wiseguys really dropped the hammer.
Over the past few days, five Bet Signals have triggered on the under ranging from 77 to 72. And as has been the case with the other sharp plays on tonight's card, the 27% of under bets have accounted for a significantly higher percentage of money (53%).
Sharp angles: Oregon State (moved from +17 to +14), Under (moved from 77 to 71.5)
