While much of the betting public is focused on Jets-Browns tonight, wiseguys are quietly targeting the other Thursday night football game — Tulsa (1-2) vs. Temple (1-2). Tulsa (+6.5) is currently receiving 69% of spread bets, but the spread hasn't attracted much attention from professional bettors.
Instead, sharps have focused on the over/under all week and have continued to bet it throughout the day today.
The Tulsa-Temple over/under opened at 57 at Pinnacle. Currently 51% of bets are taking the Over, yet the total has fallen from 57 to 53.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the percentages are balanced. So why did the total fall 3.5 points? Because wiseguys have been hammering the Under across the market, creating big liability.
When the line opened Monday night, wiseguys at 5Dimes immediately got down hard on the Under 59. Later in the week, sharps at Buckeye hit the Under 58, then pros at 5Dimes doubled down on the under 55.5.
Early this morning, Goodfellas at Pinnacle crushed the Under 54.5.
>> All data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Check out Sports Insights' Bet Signals to track sharp action for college football's entire Week 4 slate.
These moves are notable for two reasons: first, they show a clear consensus on the Under. Second, even though the total got worse, wiseguys kept hitting it, which indicates supreme confidence in a lower-scoring game.
The last Pinnacle move is extremely significant. Pinnacle is arguably the sharpest offshore book, and Goodfellas hit a lower number (54.5).
The Under also enjoys a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy — only 49% of bets are taking the Under but it accounts for 64% of dollars.
Tonight's weather should also benefit the Under. The forecast calls for 6- to 7-mph winds. According to our Bet Labs software, when the wind speed is 6 mph or more, the Under has hit at 52.4% and produced +108.68 units won.
Wind makes it harder on the offense, leading to more missed field goals, bad passes and more running plays (which chew up the clock).
From a high-level standpoint, Thursday night has been a profitable spot for betting Unders historically. The shortened week leads to less prep and game planning, benefiting the defense and leading to lower-scoring games.
Since 2005, the Under has gone 260-203 (56.2%) on Thursday night, winning +41.71 units with an 8.9% ROI.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
