It's New Year's Day, meaning many are shaking off long nights and hangovers with greasy breakfasts and morning beverages. And what pairs great with a Bloody Mary? Betting.
Today's bowl games draw massive betting interest, especially from casual bettors who are off work and looking for a sweat. This, in turn, floods the market with recreational money, providing extra value for savvy bettors.
Of today's five college football matchups, two have been steady targets of professional bettors: the Outback Bowl (Mississippi State vs. Iowa) and the Sugar Bowl (Georgia vs. Texas).
Let's dive in.
Outback Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Iowa
12 p.m. ET | ESPN2 | Tampa, FL
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 44.5 to 40.5)
Sharp and public players seem to be in agreement on this total, and the line has reacted accordingly.
Sixty-four percent of bets are on the under, but they've generated 92% of actual money being wagered, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are among that majority.
Also pointing toward wiseguy activity on the under have been the four Sports Insights Bet Signals triggered, indicating at least four instances of market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas
8:45 p.m. ET | ESPN | New Orleans, LA
Sharp angle: Texas (moved from +13.5 to +11)
Although the overall line movement has been toward Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, it doesn't quite tell the whole story as to how sharps have handled this game.
With early money hitting the Bulldogs, their line moved from -10.5 all the way to -13.5, and it wasn't really until then that sharps stepped in.
Wiseguys caused the line to fall by hitting the Longhorns three times per Sports Insights' Bet Signals — once at +13.5 and twice and +12.5. Only 41% of bettors and 35% of dollars are behind Texas at the time of writing.
