If you've read our weekly college football sharp report before, you know the deal by now. But in case you haven't, here it is:
"Sharps" are bettors with long track records of consistent success. And when I say long, I'm talking several years — decades, even. When a sharp places a bet, books take notice and often adjust their lines as a result.
By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.
The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).
We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at the Week 11 games drawing the most action from wiseguys.
All games Saturday, Nov. 10.
North Texas @ Old Dominion
2 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Old Dominion (moved from +14.5 to +14)
The first game on this week's sharp card is probably not one you'd have circled as must-watch Saturday TV. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't hold any betting value, though, and in this case that value has come on Old Dominion.
The Monarchs have drawn only 33% of bettors, but those bettors have accounted for 40% of money wagered, meaning bigger bets — more likely to be the ones from sharps — are behind Old Dominion.
They've also been on the receiving end of seven Sports Insights Bet Signals — triggered when sharp action causes market-wide line movement. That's more than any other team on Saturday's slate.
Purdue @ Minnesota
3:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Minnesota (moved from +12.5 to +11.5)
Purdue has gone 2-1 straight up (SU) in its past three games, all of which have come against teams in the current Top 25 rankings, including the 29-point blowout of Ohio State.
Now facing an unranked Minnesota team, it should come as no surprise to see the public expecting Purdue to cover its double-digit point spread on Saturday.
Seventy-two percent of bettors, in fact, have taken the Boilermakers, but this line has fallen from -12.5 to -11.5.
One reason for the line fall has been the 42% of money behind Minnesota, indicating once again that bigger, probably sharper, wagers are landing on the Gophers.
They've also triggered five Bet Signals throughout the week.
Florida International @ UTSA
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: UTSA (moved from +10.5 to +10)
Although this isn't going to draw as many eyes as the Big Ten matchup above, the betting activity has been close to identical.
Like Minnesota, UTSA is getting only 28% of bets this weekend, but those have accounted for 47% of the money wagered on this game. San Antonio has also received four Bet Signals throughout the week, moving this line from +10.5 to the key number of +10.
Texas @ Texas Tech
7:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 64.5 to 62)
An all-Big 12 matchup is almost guaranteed to generate public betting on the over. This week's meeting between Texas and Texas Tech is no different, as 62% of bettors have taken the over.
Despite that, the total has fallen more than two points from its opening number, as the under has landed 68% of the actual money being wagered.
The under has also triggered four Bet Signals contributing to the line move.
LSU @ Arkansas
7:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Arkansas (moved from +14 to +12.5)
Three-quarters of bettors are expecting a bounce-back performance from LSU following its 29-0 loss to Alabama last weekend.
That backing has made up for only 49% of dollars wagered on the game, however, meaning the average bet on Arkansas has been about three times bigger than the average LSU wager.
The Hogs have also drawn six Sports Insights Bet Signals — further indication that sharps are the reason behind the line move from +14 to +12.5.
