Week 6 of the 2020 college football season is upon us, and you can be assured that means sharp bettors, along with our CFB experts, are making some plays on a close-to-30-game slate (although, to be fair, such bettors aren't necessarily waiting until this late in the week to place their bets, as they often pounce on midweek value to get the best numbers).
In any case, though, the action over the course of the week has our college football PRO Report lighting up with signals revealing sharp action, big bets, system matches, projection edges and of course, our experts' picks.
Let's take a look at three of the matchups sporting some of those indicators.
Data as of Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET. For immediate access to our College Football PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You'll also get:
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Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina
Right off the bat, we're met with a noon ET kick offering our PRO Report's clearest display of betting value.
Sharps and big bettors (who are likely one and the same) as well as our experts are aligned on the underdog, and our model's projection suggests that's the right move.
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Sharp Action
Virginia Tech has actually been the more popular side this far (58% of spread bets as of Friday afternoon), though I'd not be surprised to see that change as kickoff approaches.
According to Sports Insights Bet Signals, sharps have been among that early majority. Two Bet Signals, which are triggered by market movement that comes specifically as a result of sharp action, have confirmed cases of professionals betting the Hokies (at +5.5 and +5).
Sharp Action edge: Virginia Tech
Big Money
As mentioned, a 58% majority has landed on the Hokies. But those bettors have generated 92% of actual money hitting this spread, and since bigger bets are more likely to come from sharps, that discrepancy serves as another strong indication that sharps are taking the points.
Big Money edge: Virginia Tech
Model Projections
For sharps to be so attracted to Virginia Tech, they must see the gap between these teams as being smaller than the current spread. And our projections agree.
Collin Wilson's power ratings suggest that the Hokies should be 1-point favorites in this game.
Model Projections edge: Virginia Tech
Top Experts
With all the edges lining up on the underdog, our experts are also rolling with Virginia Tech. Four, to be specific, have taken the Hokies, and you can follow all our picks in real time by downloading the free Action App.
Tennessee vs. Georgia
More sharp action is hitting what will likely be one of the most heavily-bet games on Saturday. And this time, a PRO betting system suggests that history is on the same side.
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Sharp Action
In a similar fashion to Virginia Tech, Tennessee has drawn the slight majority of bets as of Friday afternoon, but a Sports Insights Bet Signal has confirmed that sharps are among that 53%.
And as a result of that pro action, Tennessee has fallen off the key number of +14 and now sits at +12.5 at most books.
Sharp Action edge: Tennessee
Big Money
The 53% of Tennessee bettors have generated 73% of money hitting this spread, strengthening the indication that big, sharp bettors are taking the points.
Big Money edge: Tennessee
PRO Systems
Given the low total in this game (now just 43), Tennessee's relatively large spread makes the Vols a match for our PRO System: Road Dogs with Low Totals, which has a 59% win rate since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Tennessee
Pittsburgh vs. Boston College
Another very similar story is unfolding here, as big bets from sharps are part of a slight majority. In this case, an edge from our model's projection swaps in place of the PRO System.
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Sharp Action
Perhaps buying low on a Pitt team coming off an outright loss to NC State, sharps were quick to make work of the opening 4-point spread in this one.
Four early SI Bet Signals — all at -4.5 — were triggered on Pitt, sending this line to its current listing.
Sharp Action edge: Pittsburgh
Big Money
Following the theme set by the first two games in this piece, Pittsburgh's slight 57% majority backing has accounted for a much larger percentage of money. And in this case, that much larger percentage has meant almost all the early money.
As of our most recent money percentage update at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday, 96% of actual dollars are landing on the Panthers.
Big Money edge: Pittsburgh
Model Projections
While Pitt's line has risen pretty considerably, the Panthers are still less-than-touchdown favorites. And according to Wilson's model, that's too low.
He pegs Pitt at -9 in this matchup, which provides some significant value considering the importance of the number 7 in football betting.
Model Projections edge: Pittsburgh
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