Like we do each week, we'll give out our favorite moneyline underdogs on the Week 10 college football card. Play one that catches your eye, throw all three in a longshot parlay or just read for additional insight.
Two will always come from Collin Wilson and me on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other.
Our profit streak came to an end last Saturday, as we struck out while going for home runs with Hawaii and UTEP. However, Nevada did pull through late night to limit the damage.
Let's start a new winning streak in Week 10 with three late afternoon moneyline dogs that can hopefully bark for us. If you're feeling a little crazy, a moneyline parlay of all three pays approximately 90-1.
YTD: 10-16 +5.75 units
Stuckey: Missouri +200
- Spread: Florida -6
- Over/Under: 57
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
This is a really good matchup for Missouri, which is much better than its 4-4 record indicates. The Tigers have had one of the toughest schedules in FBS. And of their four losses, they could have (and arguably should have) won two against South Carolina and Kentucky. Those two SEC losses came by a combined three points.
Speaking of Kentucky, I think Missouri can follow the script the Wildcats used when they pulled out a win in Gainesville: take away the run and turn quarterback Feleipe Franks into a passer. Missouri can certainly do the former, as it has an absolutely dominant run defense that S&P+ ranks third overall nationally.
If you take away the Gators' running game, they become very inefficient on offense. Florida ranks 85th in the country with a subpar 58.4% completion percentage. Florida does rank second nationally in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs, which means Franks will have all day to throw against a Missouri team that ranks 129th in the same category.
However, I don't think Franks is a consistent enough passer to shred a Missouri secondary that has played better since naming two new starters in Christian Holmes and safety Tyree Gillespie.
On the other side of the ball, Florida can get after the quarterback as well as any team in the country (11th in Adjusted Sack Rate), but Missouri actually protects Drew Lock well, ranking 18th in that same category.
I also think Florida may come out very flat just one week after getting eliminated from SEC East contention, while Missouri has continued to bounce back after tough losses and should still have motivation to get bowl eligible.
Locky: Navy +425
- Spread: Cincinnati -14
- Over/Under: 49
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
By no means a lock, but I can't pass up this tantalizing number given some of the factors in play.
Cincinnati does have a gaudy record and some defensive metrics that certainly stand out. However, the schedule has just been an absolute breeze: UCLA, Miami Ohio, Ohio and Alabama A&M in the non-conference provided little resistance. Especially when you consider how much those first three teams struggled early in the season.
I've been sitting and waiting for the right moment to start fading this team, which finally felt right last week. And after winning with SMU, I am inclined to fade the Bearcats once again. They just aren't THIS much better than their competition week in and week out.
Head coach Luke Fickell and defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman have only faced Navy's option once before at Cincy, but you would be hard pressed to find a worse result. In Navy's 42-32 win last year over the Bearcats, the Midshipmen ran for 569 yards! And my favorite stat: the Midshipmen had five different players average 10 yards per carry or better. Incredible.
Now with Cincinnati having played back-to-back overtime road games, and with just this week to prepare for the option, can we reasonably expect results that are THAT much better?
Cincinnati will have one of the worst offenses Navy has faced this season (probably better than only Lehigh and Air Force). That should give Navy's porous defense a chance to look a little better than it has in recent weeks. With a coaching mismatch and a potential stylistic problem for Cincinnati, I'll take a shot on Navy here.
Collin Wilson: Coastal Carolina +475
- Spread: Appalachian State -15
- Over/Under: 56
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
If you read my weekly CW9 column that outlines my nine favorite Saturday college football bets, you know I love the Chanticleers this weekend in their first home game since Sept. 8.
A few weeks after losing star running back Jalin Moore for the season, Appalachian State lost star quarterback Zac Thomas to injury in last week's loss to Georgia Southern. Thomas remains questionable in the concussion protocol.
If he can't suit up, the usually potent Mountaineer offense will take a significant step back with backup quarterbacks Peyton Derrick and Jacob Huesman, who combined to throw four interceptions in that loss to Georgia Southern.
Even if Thomas goes, I think Coastal Carolina can have some success on the ground against an Appalachian State defense that struggled mightily against Georgia Southern's triple-option attack. The Chants have burned defenses this year with their own triple option and run-pass option attack.
I think Coastal can compete on both sides in the trenches and its offensive style may give App State issues. Thomas not playing would just be a cherry on top.
