College football Week 9 is in the books, and now we move on to Week 10 with a huge game in the Big Ten as Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in a top-5 showdown.
I see some early betting value on 3 games around the country: the aforementioned Ohio State vs. Penn State game, Jacksonville State vs. Liberty and Georgia State vs. UConn.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Let's dive into college football odds and picks for Week 10.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Pick
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
Ohio State vs. Penn State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Penn State -1.9 | Ohio State -0.4 | Ohio State -1.5 |
This is going to be the most heavily bet game throughout the week, and I would be shocked to see Ohio State close higher than a four-point favorite.
Ohio State may have two of the most talented backs in the nation, but this is going to be the best rush defense it's seen all season. Penn State boasts one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that unit has stopped every team from running the ball effectively.
The Nittany Lions are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry while ranking second nationally in both Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards.
Both Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson got completely shut down against Nebraska last weekend, combining for 54 yards on 20 carries.
When OSU faced Oregon on Oct. 12, Henderson had a 53-yard run, but he and Judkins combined for just 57 yards on 20 carries if we exclude that play.
I don't see them being much better on the road against the nation's second-best rush defense.
That also means the pressure will be on quarterback Will Howard to beat PSU through the air, but I'm not totally sold on that proposition.
Howard owns a PFF Passing grade of just 79.1 with nine big-time throws compared to eight turnover-worthy plays. Penn State ranks top-30 nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed, so I think Ohio State will have a lot of trouble moving the ball here.
On the other side, Penn State's offense may not be explosive, but it's efficient.
The Nittany Lions rank third nationally in Success Rate, mainly because of how good Drew Allar has been at quarterback. Allar has a PFF Passing grade of 87.2 and is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt, so it makes sense that they sit fourth in EPA/Pass.
But where Penn State can really win this game is in the trenches. Ohio State ranks 56th in Defensive Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Line Yards, while Penn State is top-30 in both of those categories offensively.
If the Nittany Lions can run the ball effectively, control the clock and put Allar in good passing situations, they will win this game.
All three projection models have this game projected right around a pick'em, so I like the value on Penn State at +4.
Pick: Penn State +4 (bet365)
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Pick
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Liberty -3.0 | Liberty -9.2 | Liberty -8.6 |
This line is a massive overreaction to what happened last week. Liberty lost outright to lowly Kennesaw State as a near four-touchdown favorite to give the Owls their first win of the season.
However, Liberty outgained Kennesaw in that game and really hasn't been as bad as this line indicates.
The Flames are one of the most efficient rushing teams in the country, which will be big in this game. Liberty ranks 10th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.
Running back Quinton Cooley has been outstanding this season, running for 6.4 yards per carry. He had an off game against Kennesaw last week, but he's averaged over six yards per carry in every other game this season.
The offensive line has also done a good job of opening up running lanes for him, as the Flames own the ninth-best PFF Run Blocking grade in the nation.
Jacksonville State ranks 113th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. That's not great considering its last four games came against Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee.
Outside of his last game, quarterback Kaidon Salter has been really good this season. He boasts a PFF Passing grade of 84.6 and has been one of the better quarterbacks in college football at throwing the ball deep.
That's especially important for the Flames offense because if they can run the ball successfully — which they should be able to do against the Gamecocks — it will set up play-action opportunities for Salter to beat them over the top.
Jacksonville State has put up big numbers offensively, but again, its last four games have come against four of the worst teams in the country. Louisville is essentially the only good defense Jacksonville State has played thus far, and the Cardinals held the Gamecocks to 14 points.
Liberty comes in at 20th in the nation in EPA/Play allowed, so I think Jax State could struggle to move the ball more than it has in its last four games.
Plus, the Flames have been one of the best teams in college football at home over the last five years, going 23-4 at Williams Stadium.
All three projection models have Liberty as at least a favorite of at least three points, so I like the value on the Flames at -1.
Pick: Liberty -1 (Caesars)
Georgia State vs. UConn Pick
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -104 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +198 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -118 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
Georgia State vs. UConn Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Connecticut -8.4 | Connecticut -9.0 | Connecticut -15.3 |
I know it's been at the bottom of the college football barrel forever, but UConn is actually good this season. That's because of its defense.
The Huskies rank sixth in the entire nation in EPA/Play and have allowed just 4.7 yards per play. In fact, over their last three games, they're one of only three teams to allow under four yards per play.
This is an an elite team against both the run and the pass, ranking inside the top 15 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate allowed.
In this game, specifically, it's the secondary that's going to be tested. Georgia State throws the ball on 57% of its offensive plays, but both of its quarterbacks have struggled at times.
Head coach Dell McGee made a switch from Christian Veilleux to Zach Gibson for the last two games, but he hasn't been much better.
He put up a PFF Passing grade below 70 against Marshall and Appalachian State, and anytime he's under pressure, his effectiveness decreases significantly.
Additionally, the wind will be blowing at 10 mph, which will affect the passing game.
Georgia State also can't run the ball effectively at all, ranking outside the top 100 in every rushing metric. UConn, meanwhile, ranks top-15 in Stuff Rate and EPA/Rush allowed, so I don't see how Georgia State moves the ball effectively in this game.
On the other side, UConn uses a trio of running backs, but Durell Robinson has been the most effective.
He's averaging over seven yards per attempt because he's incredibly hard to bring down on first contact. In fact, he has racked up an average of 4.8 yards per carry after he's first touched and owns a PFF Rushing grade of 89.2, which puts him in the top 10 in college football.
He also has an outstanding offensive line that boasts the second-best PFF Run Blocking grade in the nation.
Georgia State ranks 111th in Defensive Line Yards and 112th in EPA/Rush allowed, so the Huskies should be able to run the ball at will.
All three projection models have the Huskies projected well north of a touchdown, so I like the value on them at -6.5
Pick: UConn -6.5 (FanDuel)
