We're in the heart of the college football calendar with just about a month of the regular season left, which means we now have a decent amount of data on all 133 FBS teams.
There aren't too many big games this weekend outside of LSU vs. Alabama, but that doesn't mean there's a shortage in good betting opportunities.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines that I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you get the most CLV possible early in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan Odds
| N. Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| C. Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Northern Illinois -4.1 | Northern Illinois -8.1 | Northern Illinois -6.3 |
There are a lot of advantages here for Northern Illinois on the road as we kick off MACtion.
Northern Illinois is an effective rushing attack running the ball on 54% of their offensive plays. Lead back Antario Brown has been solid this season for the Huskies, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, mainly because of one game against Akron where he went off for 280 yards on only 13 carries. He has struggled against some of the better front sevens in the MAC, but Central Michigan is a well below-average front seven against the run.
The Chippewas are 119th in stuff rate, 118th in defensive line yards, and 115th in EPA/Rush allowed.
Its last game against Ball State, who coming into the game was outside the top 100 in pretty much every single rushing metric, they allowed the Cardinals to run for a whopping 243 yards on their way to a 24-17 loss.
Rocky Lombardi's numbers for the season are not great, but a lot of that was two bad games against Nebraska and Boston College. As you can see below, he's been steadily improving during MAC play.
Image via PFF.
Jase Bauer has really struggled at quarterback for Central Michigan this season. He is only averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and has nine turnover-worthy plays, compared to just six big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS that have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Bauer is 116th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That is a problem because that is how you attack the Northern Illinois defense.
The Huskies have been incredibly stout in their front seven allowing 4.3 yards per carry, and they rank 53rd in EPA/Rush allowed. Central Michigan is only averaging 3.5 yards per attempt and ranks outside the top 75 in offensive line yards and rushing success rate.
All three projection models are showing value on Northern Illinois, so I would grab them at -3 (PointsBet).
Penn State vs. Maryland Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -465 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Penn State vs. Maryland Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Penn State -8.1 | Penn State -7.2 | Penn State -8.0 |
Penn State was incredibly sloppy and quite frankly, looked hungover against Indiana at home on Saturday. What that game highlighted is that the Nittany Lions really aren't an elite team with Drew Allar at quarterback.
Penn State is great offensively when they are playing with a lead and Allar doesn't have to make any throws downfield. Over 70% of Allar's pass attempts this season are under 10 yards and he's only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.
Penn State is literally dead last in the country in passing explosiveness, so even though Maryland is a very average secondary, Drew Allar and the Penn State passing attack doesn't scare me.
Even the Penn State rushing attack hasn't been that effective. Noah Singleton and Kaytron Allen are both averaging under 4.7 yards per carry, but they are a top 40 team in rushing success rate and EPA/Rush.
However, they are not explosive whatsoever on the ground (117th in rushing explosiveness) and Maryland is top 10 at preventing explosive rushes. So, it's going to have to be a lot of 3-4 yard carries and trying to control the clock.
Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled the last three games, but he has been solid this season overall. He's top 40 in the country in Positive EPA play percentage and is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and has Maryland 32nd in passing success rate.
Penn State ranks first in almost every single pass defense metric, but they haven't really played any good quarterbacks this season. Kyle McCord and Garrett Greene are the only two quarterbacks they've faced that have a positive EPA on the season.
Maryland has been effective at running the ball because of their ability to break off big plays. The Terrapins are 23rd in EPA/Rush and ninth in rushing explosiveness behind Roman Hemby who is averaging almost four yards per carry after contact and has a PFF rushing grade of 80.0.
The biggest thing in this game is going to be finishing drives. Because Penn State has played a weak schedule, their numbers are inflated, while Maryland is 15th in finishing drives allowed and 36th in finishing drives on offense.
All three projection models have Penn State around -8, so I'd grab the Terrapins +11.5 at FanDuel now.
LSU vs. Alabama Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -182 |
LSU vs. Alabama Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Alabama -6.9 | Alabama -8.3 | Alabama -5.8 |
This is the biggest game of the weekend and quite frankly, I think the price on Alabama is a little too short.
The Crimson Tide's offense has struggled at times, but they came alive in the second half against Tennessee and showed what they are truly capable of. Jalen Milroe hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, but he can sure throw the deep ball.
Milroe is averaging 10.7 yards per attempt to go along with 17 big-time throws and a 98.7 PFF passing grade on attempts of 20+ yards through the air.
007. @JalenMilroe ➡️ @isaiahbond_
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/wJivqeifmW
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 21, 2023
LSU's secondary is a mess right now. Both starting cornerbacks — Darian Chestnut and Zy Alexander — are out, which leaves the Tigers' secondary in an awful position after struggling to defend the pass all year.
LSU ranks outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed and 99th in EPA/Pass allowed.
Alabama has been a very average rushing attack behind Jase McClellan, but that's OK because LSU can't stop the run to save their lives. The Tigers are outside the top 100 in both rushing success rate allowed and EPA/Rush allowed and the best rush offense they've faced this season has been Ole Miss who ran for 317 yards on them.
Jayden Daniels is putting up unbelievable numbers right now. He leads college football in EPA, yards per attempt and PFF passing grade. He's been so good that LSU is the No. 1 team in the country in offensive success rate and EPA/Play. He's also been incredibly effective with his legs averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and has 21 runs over 10+ yards.
While he's been amazing, a lot of his success has come from a clean pocket. Here's the difference for Daniels with and without pressure.
| Pressure | EPA/Pass | Completion % |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Pocket | 0.60 | 75.0% |
| Under Pressure | -0.29 | 55.9% |
| Pressure | Yards/Attempt | Positive EPA Play % |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Pocket | 11.0 | 66.7% |
| Under Pressure | 12.2 | 31.4% |
Data via Sports Info Solutions.
He is literally the most dangerous quarterback in America with a clean pocket, but Alabama can get pressure on him. The Crimson Tide rank top-40 in havoc, have the fourth-highest sack percentage and rank 14th in pressure rate.
The most important factor in this game is going be which team is able to finish their scoring drives. Alabama has been solid defensively in their own territory, but the same cannot be said for LSU who is 116th in finishing drives allowed.
All three projection models have Alabama around -6, so I would grab -3.5 at FanDuel now because I highly doubt a -3 on Alabama is coming during the week.
