Week 10 NCAAF Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday Afternoon
Just as I've done every week throughout the college football season, I will share my favorite situational betting spots for this week's college football games.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot may appear on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
Hopefully, I can help you make one or two of those same tough wagering decisions while sharing some key angles, matchups and injury situations for each particular game.
Depending on your own personal risk aversion level, you may want to sit some of these out if you aren't comfortable with the quarterback uncertainty in a number of the following matchups.
Last week's nine spots finished 7-2 with two painful losses on West Virginia (I don't want to talk about it) and Cal by the hook. That brings the three-week running tally to 22-3, so hopefully we can keep it rolling. Although, it won't always be rosy results.
I have highlighted nine games once again this week — three from each of Saturday's major kickoff windows.
This particular article focuses on Saturday afternoon's kickoffs (3:30 p.m. ET). Click either of the links below to navigate to my noon or evening situational betting spots on Saturday:
Kansas +2 vs. Oklahoma State
Editor's Note: Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders will not play against Kansas, according to our Brett McMurphy. Freshman Garret Rangel will get the start.
Back to the Pokes fade. Oklahoma State had been extremely fortunate in a number of victories before getting pantsed in Manhattan last week.
Now, after that demoralizing loss, the Cowboys will head to Lawrence for their second straight road game after a brutal stretch of five high-profile Big 12 matchups in the month of October.
The gas tank has to be nearing empty, and the injuries are mounting.
On offense, the Pokes could be without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders in addition to their top back, a pair of starting wide receivers and multiple starting linemen.
To make matters worse, the status of three starting defensive backs and their best defensive tackle remain in doubt.
Meanwhile, Kansas is much healthier and fresher following its bye week. That bodes well for one of my favorite offensive staffs.
Kansas' brilliant offensive scheme is a preparation nightmare with all of its pre-snap deception and skill-position depth and versatility. The Jayhawks should have a full arsenal of new wrinkles against a very porous (and undermanned) Oklahoma State defense, whose early down metrics suggest rougher waters ahead.
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels has a chance to return, but the offense runs just as smoothly with Jason Bean. The scheme is truly the engine for an offense that just doesn't allow negative plays.
Kansas starting cornerback Cobee Bryant could also return from injury after practicing on Monday.
I expect a great crowd and inspired effort from the Jayhawks, who will look to avenge last year's embarrassing 55-3 loss. More importantly, a win will get the program to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2008.
Notable Nugget
Lance Leipold is 22-7-1 ATS (75.9%) in home conference games as a head coach. He’s the second-most profitable coach of 410 in this situation since 2005.
Memphis +3.5 vs. UCF
This looks like a prime opportunity to sell UCF after its dramatic comeback victory against Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, I've been waiting to buy low on Memphis, which comes off of a bye before this AAC matchup at the Liberty Bowl.
Three consecutive defeats have dropped the Tigers to 4-4, but that record is a bit misleading. They lost one of the most improbable games of the season against Houston after leading by three scores late. They followed that game up by blowing another three-score lead at ECU in quadruple overtime.
Their next game came at Tulane in an awful spot after those two collapses. Due to some special teams blunders and early turnovers, Memphis found itself down 35-0 at the half before falling short by 10 after a wild second-half comeback attempt.
The well-timed bye week allowed Memphis to reset prior to the final third of its season.
Matchup-wise, Memphis excels at defending the run, which is critical against UCF. The Tigers also prefer to throw the ball, which is where teams can attack the Knights.
Keep in mind that UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. Mikey Keene has prior starting experience but is an overall slight downgrade, in my opinion.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, Memphis is perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog against ranked opponents. The Tigers won four of those outright vs. UCLA, Houston, Ole Miss and SMU. Their only outright loss came against UCF by one as five-point underdogs in 2019.
UAB +1 vs. UTSA
It's been a disappointing season so far for the 4-4 Blazers. However, this looks like a juicy buy-low spot for a team that just hasn't had the ball bounce its way in a couple of tough-luck losses.
The Blazers also have revenge on their mind from a heartbreaking loss last year on a last-minute game-winning tipped-ball touchdown that ultimately led to UTSA clinching the division.
More importantly, UAB has the secondary to neutralize Frank Harris and the potent UTSA passing attack.
However, I do think the Blazers need Dylan Hopkins back at quarterback in order to fully exploit a vulnerable Roadrunner secondary. I'm assuming Hopkins will suit up, but that's not a certainty.
I will have a more detailed breakdown later in the week in a standalone preview for this game.
Notable Nugget
Since 2017, UAB has gone 11-0 ATS at home following a loss, including 2-0 this season.
