Week 11 NCAAF Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday, Noon ET
Just like I've done throughout the college football season, I will share my favorite spots for this week's college football games.
Last week's nine spots finished 5-4 with two painful losses on UAB in overtime and Memphis and two awful calls on James Madison and Charlotte (yikes). That brings the four-week running tally to 27-7.
Hopefully, we can keep it rolling, but there will always be rough weeks in this gig, so please wager responsibly.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
Hopefully, I can help you make one or two of those same tough wagering decisions while sharing some key angles, matchups and injury situations for each particular game.
I have highlighted 10 games this week — five that kick off at noon ET, and five more that kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET or later.
This particular article focuses on Saturday's noon ET kickoffs. Click the article linked below to read more about the five games I have circled from 3:30 p.m. ET to 7:30 p.m. ET.
Navy +17 vs. Notre Dame
First off, this noon kick in Baltimore looks like a major potential letdown spot for the Irish after absolutely dominating Clemson in prime time last Saturday.
Additionally, this sets up as a pretty decent matchup for the Midshipmen, who have a dominant run defense. That's critical against a Notre Dame offense that remains extremely limited through the air.
On the season, Navy ranks in the top 15 nationally in the following defensive categories:
- Line Yards
- Stuff Rate
- Opportunity Rate
- Yards per Rush
- EPA per Rush
- Rush Success Rate
This unit can compete in the trenches against an excellent Notre Dame offensive line. Navy is extremely vulnerable on the back end against talented wide receiver groups, but that certainly doesn't describe the Irish.
Additionally, Navy obviously runs it as much as any team in the country. That's good news in this particular matchup against a Notre Dame defense that has been much worse against the run.
Lastly, catching 17 in a game with a total of 42 is always intriguing, especially with a service academy that will bleed the clock on every down, limiting the number of overall possessions.
I've backed Notre Dame the past two weeks in back-to-back victories over ranked teams, but now it's time to fade this young and inexperienced squad as a favorite, which has been very profitable this season. The Irish are 0-4 against the spread as a double-digit favorite in 2022, losing a pair of those games outright against Marshall and Stanford.
Notable Nugget
Service academies are 40-22-2 (64.5%) when catching more than two touchdowns since 2005, covering by over five points per game.
Arkansas +3 vs. LSU
This could be the situational spot of the year. One week after upsetting Alabama on a walk-off two-point conversion in overtime, LSU will have to regain focus for a trip to Fayetteville.
Meanwhile, you can expect an inspired effort from the Razorbacks after a bad home loss to Liberty.
The Tigers have certainly improved as the season has progressed, as I anticipated in Brian Kelly's first season. But this feels like the top of the market for a team that should have lost at Auburn last month.
LSU will score its fair share of points against an Arkansas defense that has struggled all season. The Hogs lack push up front (101st in Line Yards) and really miss All-American safety Jalen Catalon, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1, on the back end.
They will now also be without Myles Slusher, who received a one-week suspension after an arrest last weekend. His absence won't help matters, but he's been very poor in coverage since returning from injury and taking over the strong safety spot.
However, Arkansas has potential advantages on the other side of the ball. It has one of the best offensive lines in college football, which leads a powerful ground game in a rush-first offense.
It could play the ball-control game against an LSU defense that has had trouble against the run, ranking below average nationally in both Rush Success Rate, yards per rush and EPA per Rush.
And when Arkansas does have to throw, KJ Jefferson has actually been one of the most underrated passers in all of college football, especially when considering he lost Treylon Burks from last year's squad.
All I wanted was +3 or better with the home dog in this dream spot, which I grabbed earlier in the week.
Notable Nugget
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is an impressive 12-6 ATS record as an underdog, covering by 4.25 points per game. That includes an 8-3 ATS (72.7%) mark against top-20 teams with a perfect 6-0 mark excluding games against Alabama and Georgia.
USF +17.5 vs. SMU
It's our weekly new interim coach spot.
After an absolutely lifeless effort in a blowout loss at Temple in which the Bulls allowed 54 points, the administration decided to part ways with head coach Jeff Scott.
So, why have I itched to back teams in this spot all season? Three primary reasons:
- Potential locker room morale boost.
- Usually signifies bottom of the market.
- Higher likelihood to show new looks and schemes not on film.
It's also not an ideal situational spot for SMU. After putting up 77 points in a wild victory over Houston, it travels to one-win South Florida ahead of a date with ranked Tulane.
Don't expect many stops from a horrid USF pass defense against the electric SMU Air Raid.
However, the best defense might be a ball-control offense. USF does have a very good rush offense that sits in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Rush. That could spell trouble for a very poor SMU run defense that ranks 125th in EPA per Rush.
The Bulls are one of only 24 programs that average over 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, SMU ranks in the bottom 20 in FBS in yards per rush allowed (4.8).
It's worth noting that USF starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon is out for the year with an injury.
However, Katravis Marsh looked a lot more comfortable in his second start against Temple. He doesn't have the same rushing ability as Bohanon but actually has the same number of passing touchdowns with five fewer interceptions and a higher yards-per-attempt number.
If South Florida comes out with an inspired effort under a new interim head coach, it should stay within this inflated number.
The Bulls have already demonstrated they can hang with superior teams when they show up. They arguable should've beaten both Florida and Cincinnati on the road and stayed within two scores of Tulane and Houston.
If not, it could get very ugly. But that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Notable Nugget
The six previous schools to fire their coaches midseason in 2022 have gone 13-11 ATS after making the change compared to just 5-21 (23.8%) prior to the move.
UConn +14.5 vs. Liberty
In a matchup of two absolute covering machines, this is a great spot to back the Huskies, who remain undervalued in the market after years of incompetence.
There's a reason Jim Mora Jr.'s bunch owns an 8-2 ATS mark with an average cover margin north of a touchdown.
With a victory, UConn will become bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. This is an absolutely massive game for the program. It will also benefit from an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of its second straight home game.
Meanwhile, Liberty heads northeast for its second straight roadie after upsetting Arkansas. The Flames also have a date with in-state big brother Virginia Tech on deck, so this certainly qualifies as a potential flat sandwich spot.
More importantly, head coach Hugh Freeze stated his team is understandably a bit beat up after facing an SEC opponent. The Flames will likely be without their best offensive player in running back Dae Dae Hunter, who got injured last week in Fayetteville.
Hunter, who grades out as PFF's most elusive player in the country, averages 6.6 yards per carry compared to just 4.1 for backup Shedro Louis. His absence will cause a precipitous decrease in Liberty's rush explosiveness.
From a matchup perspective, UConn's rush-heavy attack will really struggle to move the ball against an extremely underrated Liberty defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in Success Rate against the run and pass. Its nasty front seven actually leads FBS in tackles for loss per game.
However, the same can be said for Liberty's offense sans Hunter against a very underrated Huskies defense.
They have excellent players at all three levels, led by Jackson Mitchell at linebacker and a pair of excellent safeties in Malik Dixon and Durante Jones. Its primary weakness on defense lies at cornerback, but that's not as big of a concern in this particular matchup.
Ultimately, I just show too much value on the motivated home dog in a great situational spot in a game where points should come at a premium.
Plus, Liberty has already demonstrated it will play down to competition with a pair of single-digit victories over Gardner Webb and Akron.
Notable Nugget
In 2022, the Flames are a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs but just 1-4 as a favorite, including 0-3 as double-digit chalk.
Vanderbilt +18 vs. Kentucky
This is your look-ahead spot of the week. The Wildcats will host lowly Vanderbilt in the sleepy noon slot one week before hosting the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Kentucky got very fortunate last week in a road victory in large part due to a few Missouri special teams blunders. The Tigers also finished with a -2 turnover margin and went just 1-of-4 on fourth-down attempts.
The Wildcats still can't run the ball and struggle to build margin with their very limited offense.
Vanderbilt isn't good by any stretch but is an improving young squad that continues to fight for head coach Clark Lea on a weekly basis. From an advanced box score perspective, the Commodores actually had one of the unluckiest losses of Week 10 against South Carolina.
With quarterback AJ Swann expected to miss another week with an injury, Mike Wright will once again start under center. He's absolutely horrific under pressure but more than adequate in a clean pocket, which he should have more often than not against a Kentucky defense that ranks 121st in Sack Rate.
I'm sure Kentucky simply wants to build a lead before bleeding this one away with Georgia on deck.
Notable Nugget
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 0-3 ATS as a favorite of more than two touchdowns in SEC play since arriving in Lexington. All three contests came against Vanderbilt.
