Week 12 NCAAF Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday Afternoon
Just like I've done throughout the college football season, I will share my favorite spots for this week's games.
Last week's 10 spots finished 5-4-1 with a painful loss on USF after the Bulls decided not to kick the extra point in the final minute down 18 for the cover, instead opting for a failed two-point try. Maximum pain.
That brings the four-week running tally to 32-11-1 (74.4%).
Hopefully, we can avoid the regression monster for another week and keep it rolling through the end of the season. Although, there will always be rough weeks in this gig, so please wager responsibly.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
My primary goal is to simply help you make one or two of those same tough wagering decisions while sharing a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game.
For Week 12, I have highlighted my 12 favorite situational betting spots, spanning from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. ET:
- Early Kickoffs: 11 a.m. – Noon ET (4 picks)
- Afternoon Kickoffs: 2:30 p.m. – 4 p.m. ET (3 picks)
- Evening Kickoffs: 7:30 p.m. – 9 p.m. ET (5 picks)
This particular article focuses on my four favorite spots from Saturday afternoon's kickoff window (3:30 p.m. to 4 p.m. ET). Find my top picks for Saturday morning and evening via the two articles linked below:
Boston College +21 at Notre Dame
I hate to put teams into simple buckets but Notre Dame seems to be the definition of a team that plays up and down to its level of competition each week. That's actually not too surprising to me for a very young team with a first-year head coach.
Meanwhile, after surviving a scare against Navy following two ranked victories, I'm not sure how hyped Notre Dame will be to host Boston College one week before it squares off with USC.
Plus, Boston College has seemingly found a spark at quarterback with backup Emmett Moorhead. After a promising debut start against Duke, the Virginia native threw for 330 yards in an upset victory at NC State last Saturday.
I'm not sure what happened with quarterback Phil Jurkovec, but he was apparently part of the problem for the struggling Eagles offense that still can't run the ball at all.
With no chance of a bowl, this is basically Boston College's Super Bowl. I think the Eagles carry over that momentum from last week and can give the Irish a game.
Notable Nugget
In 2022, Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS as an underdog but just 1-5 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 as double-digit chalk with two outright losses and another pair of one-possession victories.
Charlotte +3 vs. Louisiana Tech
One last trip to Club Lit.
It's the regular-season finale for Charlotte after an extremely tumultuous season. Last week, it got us a cover at Middle Tennessee in a game it should've won if not for two non-offensive touchdowns for MTSU.
The defense has improved marginally since head coach Will Healy's dismissal due to scheme simplification and a few personnel changes. It still has one of the five worst defenses in the country, but so does Louisiana Tech.
In a battle of two capable offenses against putrid defenses, I'll happily take the home dog with the better offense since Louisiana Tech won't have starting quarterback Parker McNeil. He's been a bright spot for the Bulldogs this season.
Backup quarterback Landry Lyddy significantly lowers the explosiveness potential of the offense. In his two starts, Louisiana Tech lost outright at Florida International and got blown out by UTSA, 51-7.
It's also not a great spot for the Bulldogs, who lost any shot at bowl eligibility last week. Now, in between games against UTSA and UAB, it will travel east to face lowly Charlotte.
Meanwhile, I'm not concerned about motivation for the 49ers. They have a number of key seniors playing in their final game after joining the program in 2018. It's also another audition for the staff for future jobs either under newly-hired head coach Biff Poggi or elsewhere.
Notable Nugget
Over the past two seasons, Louisiana Tech is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite, failing to cover by 13 points per game. All four actually came against conference opponents in outright losses.
Auburn -5.5 vs. Western Kentucky
This Auburn team continues to play with newfound energy after Cadillac Williams took over as interim coach. The players have bought in, and the fans are showing up for a Tigers team that needs this game to keep their bowl eligibility alive.
Even with this game sandwiched in between a victory over Texas A&M and the Iron Bowl, I believe Auburn will come out ready to roll.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is already bowl-eligible. The Hilltoppers still have hopes of reaching the C-USA title game, but they will need a win next week combined with a North Texas loss.
Most importantly, this is a very good matchup for Auburn's defense, which has struggled all year defending the run but excelled against the pass.
That's good news against WKU's pass-heavy Air Raid attack. On the season, Auburn ranks in the top 25 in Success Rate against the pass compared to a ranking that sits outside the top 100 against the run.
Western Kentucky also has some potential looming negative turnover regression coming its way. On the season, it ranks third in the country with a +13 turnover margin. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Auburn ranks third-worst at -11.
I actually prefer the moneyline here since Auburn is not a team I fancy to win with margin. And for what it's worth, WKU lost a pair of road games by a field goal against UTSA and Indiana.
I personally paired the Tigers with Wake Forest in a moneyline parlay.
Notable Nugget
Western Kentucky is a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road, covering by an average of 14 points per game. Only Troy can make that same claim with a minimum of five road games.
