We suffered our first losing week of the season last Saturday on player props. It happens.
Week 6 is about the time to start ditching virtually all of last year's data and stick with what we do know.
I'd normally dive into the lower-profile matchups bettors don't want to touch to find value. This week's list of props, however, features a couple big hitters, including a banger in the Red River Rivalry.
You can find these plays at PrizePicks, which is available in 30 states.
Texas QB Casey Thompson Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Talk about a tumultuous last 10 months for Thompson.
He exploded in last year's bowl game, peaked at 25-1 to win the Heisman during the off-season, then lost the starting job to Hudson Card.
Now, Thompson's back under center for a red-hot offense.
Texas has racked up 160 total points the last three weeks, spearheaded by Thompson's nine total scores over that span. The dual-threat quarterback is No. 1 in the 2022 QB class in EPA/play (0.74) and tied fourth in QBR (85).
The Oklahoma native draws his hometown Sooners in Week 6. Their defense has been stout against the rush, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry.
Thompson will have to throw the ball, and an implied team total of roughly 30 points inspires confidence he'll notch multiple scores through the air.
Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
West Virginia QB Jarret Doege Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Doege spoiled an otherwise perfect Week 3, throwing two touchdown passes against Virginia Tech and ultimately cashing the over on 1.5 touchdowns. Let's see how he can burn us again this Saturday.
Although he's operating a Big 12 offense, Doege's been quiet on the stat sheet. He's been held without multiple touchdown passes in five of the last six games against FBS opponents dating back to last season.
The tilt against Baylor features the fourth-lowest total on the Week 6 board. I have zero faith Doege can fill the scoreboard against a Bears defense ranking 13th in yards per pass attempt (5.8) and 22nd in opponent completion percentage (55.6%) in 2021.
Pick: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Auburn QB Bo Nix Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions
Only two starting quarterbacks have attempted at least 140 passes without an interception so far: Western Michigan's Kaleb Eleby, and Nix.
The dual-threat quarterback notably regressed off a promising 2019 freshman season, tossing more interceptions last year despite playing two fewer games. Nonetheless, Nix has been perfect, whipping six touchdowns to zero picks this campaign.
However, that'll likely change this Saturday against Georgia's elite defense.
The top havoc-inducing unit in the country is also No. 1 in opponent yards per attempt (4.7). Additionally, only Cincinnati has allowed a lower completion (42.9%) than Georgia (47.9%).
Nix has no choice but to put the ball in the air as a 15.5-point underdog. This is a prime spot for him to record his first pick.
Pick: Over 0.5 Interceptions
