Week 7 College Football Saturday Picks for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a long day of betting college football.
Are you ready to bet more college football?
Our staff of betting analysts has four more college football Week 7 picks and best bets for Saturday's evening slate, including predictions for Ole Miss vs.LSU and Ohio State vs. Oregon.
Check out our college football picks below.
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College Football Pick for Ole Miss vs. LSU
Is LSU catching over a field goal at night in Tiger Stadium?
In this economy?
Saturday is a tremendous spot to back the Tigers. Ole Miss hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 2008 and will now travel to Death Valley to play its seventh straight game against a well-rested LSU squad coming off a bye week.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads the SEC with 15 touchdowns and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and tight end Mason Taylor.
The LSU running game has been its weakness, but it might’ve found something recently in true freshman Caden Durham, who had 128 yards and a touchdown rushing – as well as 89 yards and a touchdown receiving – in his last outing.
The Ole Miss defense has been tremendous this season, but it has yet to be tested. What’s the best passing attack the Rebels have faced to this point? Wake Forest?
The strength of the Ole Miss defense is certainly its defensive line. The Rebels lead the country in sacks and tackles for loss, but LSU is among the few teams that can negate that.
The Tigers have arguably the best offensive line in the country, with All-SEC tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. bookending the unit. Nussmeier has been sacked just once all season and has been pressured at the fifth-lowest rate among all qualified FBS quarterbacks.
LSU can neutralize the Rebels’ biggest strength and test this secondary for the first time this season.
LSU has improved greatly on defense this year under new coordinator Blake Baker. The Tigers still have issues against the pass, but their run defense has taken a step forward.
As good as Jaxson Dart looked to start the season, he’s looked shaky over the last two games and is coming off his worst performance.
On top of that, star receiver Tre Harris is questionable with an injury, and he would be a massive loss if he can’t go. Harris has 52 catches on the season, with the next closest receiver at just 18 grabs.
This is just a perfect spot for the Tigers. Brian Kelly is 35-18 (66%) against the spread as an underdog in his career. And there’s no better home-field advantage in college football than LSU at night.
Since 2000, LSU has played 123 night games at Tiger Stadium; it’s 108-15 in those games and hasn’t lost a home night game since November 2021.
The Tigers are 12-0 in night games under Kelly and 16-1 at home under Kelly, regardless of the time of day.
Bet the Tigers at home.
Pick: LSU +3.5 (Play to +3)
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College Football Pick for Ohio State vs. Oregon
Ohio State finally got tested against an elite defensive front when it played Iowa on Saturday, and it answered the bell. The Buckeyes averaged 5.1 yards per carry and put up a positive EPA for the game.
However, Chip Kelly's offense isn't playing at a lightning pace right now. The Buckeyes are averaging 27.6 seconds per play, ranking 86th nationally.
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard made a couple of big throws against Iowa in the second half, but he wasn't very efficient overall when throwing the ball down the field.
That's been the story of his season. Even though he has two of the most talented receivers in college football, he still owns a PFF passing grade of just 75.2 with five big-time throws compared to five turnover-worthy plays.
Oregon's secondary is just as good as Iowa's, if not better. The Ducks have the third-best Coverage grade by PFF and rank 10th nationally in EPA per Pass Allowed.
Conversely, the Buckeyes will be the best defense Dillon Gabriel has faced thus far, and I'm not sure if he's ready for the challenge. He played poorly in the Ducks' last game against Michigan State, throwing two interceptions in the red zone.
He just hasn't been consistent enough this season.
Gabriel will destroy opposing secondaries if he has a clean pocket, but his PFF Passing grade drops from 89.7 to 61.1 when under pressure.
Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Buckeyes lead the country in sack percentage and rank second in PFF's Pass-Rush grades, which is terrible news for Gabriel.
This Ohio State defense is so good because it limits opponents when they cross the 40-yard line.
The Buckeyes lead the nation in Defensive Finishing Drives, which was on full display against Iowa last weekend. The Hawkeyes crossed OSU's 40-yard line seven times and came away with just seven points.
Both offenses are below average in pace and have elite defenses to boot.
The total is a little too high here.
Pick: Under 54.5 (Play to 52)
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College Football Pick for Syracuse vs. NC State
By Cody Goggin
Kyle McCord and the Syracuse passing attack have been on fire this season. They rank sixth nationally in Pass Success Rate, 11th in Pass PPA and pass at the 16th-highest rate in FBS.
McCord has 1,803 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions this year, averaging 0.30 EPA per Dropback.
This has helped the Orange rank 31st in Success Rate, 34th in Explosiveness and 11th in Finishing Drives. They also rank 21st in Havoc allowed, avoiding all negative plays.
The Syracuse offensive line has been slightly above average, ranking 48th in PFF's Run Blocking grades and 56th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades.
The Orange will face off against an NC State team that ranks 68th in Success Rate allowed this season and 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Wolfpack rank 87th in Havoc generated, 91st in Pass Success Rate allowed and 93rd in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
NC State’s offense ranks just 92nd in Success Rate, 116th in Finishing Drives and 127th in Havoc allowed. It also ranks 115th in Rush Success Rate and 46th in Pass Success Rate, but it’ll likely be without quarterback Grayson McCall, who was injured last weekend.
Syrcuase’s defense ranks 118th in Success Rate, 94th in Finishing Drives and 81st in Havoc rate. It also ranks 113th in Success Rate allowed against both the run and the pass, which indicates a poor overall defense.
Syracuse's offense will be the best unit on the field and have a notable advantage against NC State's defense.
On the other hand, both the Syracuse defense and NC State offense have been poor this season, so the outcome could go either way.
However, because I’m most confident in Syracuse’s passing attack, Syracuse -3 is a good bet.
Pick: Syracuse -3 (Play to -3)
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College Football Pick for Syracuse vs. NC State
The Syracuse Orange (4-1, 1-1) will face the NC State Wolfpack (3-3, 0-2) at 8 p.m. at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Syracuse will continue its hot start, whereas North Carolina State will seek to overcome questions surrounding starting quarterback Grayson McCall (concussion).
I believe the uncertainty around McCall’s status has compressed the total for this game, and as a result, oddsmakers have mispriced the game.
Clearly, losing a veteran quarterback can create some upheaval in offensive game planning and execution. However, I think the over is the move here irrespective of who NC State starts under center.
The edge that attracted me to this game is the lack of defense both teams have exhibited this season — mainly scoring defense.
Entering this game, NC State has the worst scoring defense in the ACC, allowing opposing offenses to score 33.7 points per game.
The Syracuse offense, namely Kyle McCord, should have no problem getting on the scoreboard frequently in this game against a weak Wolfpack defense.
McCord is having a standout season, averaging 362.8 yards and boasting a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In their two previous ACC contests, the Wolfpack have allowed 59 and 34 points to Clemson and Wake Forest, respectively, so I expect a McCord-led offense to have no issue getting 30-plus points.
While the Syracuse offense inspires confidence, the defense certainly leaves much to be desired. The Orange rank 13th in the ACC in scoring defense, giving up an average of 26.2 points per game.
Even if McCall is a no-go for the Wolfpack, freshman backup quarterback CJ Bailey won’t face an extremely daunting defense.
With these two weak defenses meeting, I’m betting the over, especially in what I view as a mispriced market.
McCord is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and should have no issue slinging the ball around, while whichever NC State quarterback we get will benefit from a soft opposing defense.
I recommend betting the over in this game at 56.5 or better.
Pick: Over 52 (Play to 56.5)
