Week 8 NCAAF Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday Afternoon
Over the first six weeks of the season, I highlighted 10 situational spots I had circled on each Saturday. With conference play now in full swing, there may not be as many on a weekly basis.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me to bet or not bet when I'm on the fence for a particular game, for but it's certainly more art than science.
Hopefully, I can help you make one or two of those same tough wagering decisions while sharing some key angles, matchups and injury situations for each particular game.
Last week, I identified seven spots that fortunately went 6-1. This week, I have nine college football matchups circled on Saturday — three games from each of Saturday's major kickoff windows.
This particular article focuses on Saturday's afternoon kickoffs (3:30 to 4 p.m. ET). Click either of the links below to navigate to my noon or evening situational betting spots on Saturday:
LSU -2 vs. Ole Miss
Speaking of strength of schedule disparities, LSU hosts an undefeated Ole Miss squad on Saturday afternoon in Death Valley.
Through six games, the Tigers have faced three teams currently ranked in the top 20 of my latest power ratings. Meanwhile, the Rebels have faced none with their best win coming at home by three over Kentucky thanks to a pair of late Wildcat fumbles.
Given the lackluster competition, I just haven't been overly impressed with Ole Miss outside of its electric rushing attack. LSU's talented defensive line can cause enough negative plays to contain the high-flying Rebels.
Additionally, the LSU offense will serve as a major step up in class compared to what Lane Kiffin's bunch has faced so far.
The Tigers should control the line of scrimmage to get their ground game going. More importantly, it can build on the passing game results we saw last weekend at Florida.
Jayden Daniels had his best game of the season by far. He consistently attacked down the field, which head coach Brian Kelly had been clamoring for. In the first half alone, he completed eight passes of 15-plus yards after attempting just 18 over the first five games.
Also, star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte finally broke out last week for the first time in 2022. He finished with 115 receiving yards after compiling just 130 combined over the first five games.
Believe it or not, LSU can move into a share of first place in the SEC West with a victory.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Brian Kelly owns a gaudy 36-14-2 (72%) ATS record as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal. That makes him the most profitable coach out of 452 with these parameters in our Action Labs database.
Tulane -7 vs. Memphis
I only bring this up since I'm not sure where Memphis is at mentally. The Tigers will head to Tulane after two of the most excruciating losses you will ever see a team suffer in back-to-back weeks.
Two weeks ago, they blew a late three-score lead to Houston, which made a miraculous comeback after recovering an onside kick in the final minute. Then, last week at ECU, Memphis once again blew a three-possession lead before ultimately falling by two points in quadruple overtime.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers came out a bit flat in their second straight road game after a pair of consecutive heartbreaking defeats.
Notable Nugget
Since arriving at Tulane in 2016, head coach Willie Fritz has gone 27-11-1 ATS (71%) at home. No other coach has been more profitable at home over that span.
Hawaii +5 at Colorado State
I'm not sure the market has caught up to how much better Hawaii has played in recent weeks. Following a last-second loss on the road at San Diego State, it dominated Nevada on the island last week.
It's not too surprising to see the Warriors improve as the season has progressed, considering new head coach Timmy Chang essentially inherited a complete rebuild. After not being able to stop a nosebleed earlier this season, the defense has held two straight conference opponents to under 17 points.
More importantly, the offense has looked significantly better since they stopped playing Joey Yellen at quarterback with Brayden Schager taking all of the reps over the past three games.
Just take a look at the stark discrepancy in their season-long statistics:
- Yellen: 40-of-87 (46%) for 324 yards (3.7 YPA) with 0 TD and 2 INT (72.7 Rating)
- Schager: 96-of-167 (57.5%) for 1,028 yards (6.2 YPA) with 3 TD and 5 INT (109.1 Rating)
Meanwhile, Colorado State's offense remains broken. Yes, it finally won a game over Nevada but needed two defensive touchdowns and a last-second do-over field goal to pull out a three-point win.
The Rams were also competitive last week against Utah State in a 17-13 loss but once again got thoroughly outplayed despite facing an emergency fourth-string quarterback thrown into action for the Aggies.
Colorado State starting quarterback Clay Millen could return from injury, but I'm not sure how much he can even help. Opposing defenses have basically figured out that all they need to do is double wide receiver Tory Horton in order to completely stifle the Rams' offense.
Notable Nugget
Since 2011, Hawaii has gone just 47-80-5 (37%) ATS. Only UConn has cost bettors more money over that period.
