I think this is it, fellas. THE week we all knew was coming. The week of weeks. Wind, wind and more wind. Wind as far as the eye can see.
Winds are-a-whipping,
Over/unders are slipping,
Let's cash some unders,
When I initially saw the forecast, I thought it was too good to be true. I was afraid the winds would weaken and it would all be a tease. Instead, the wind speeds have increased.
Let's hope that trend continues over the next couple days.
Wind
Like I said, it's a blustery one. Just so you know, here is the winning rate for unders at these certain wind thresholds:
- 20+ mph: 64.3%
- 15+ mph: 58.1%
- 10+ mph: 54.4%
So you may have seen the title, but a lot of these games are in the Midwestern states. I found my new favorite website this week, Windy.com, which helps visualize windy weather forecasts.
This weather system begins Saturday morning in the Minnesota region and gradually shifts southeast as the day progresses.
In the afternoon, 15+ mph sustained winds and 30+ mph gusts envelop much of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio. By night time, it'll mostly be impacting Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.
This cold weather front is sucking cold Canadian air down from the north to make for some nippy conditions and a wintry feel. Luckily for us, there are a crapload of games taking place in this region.
The big three right now are the games in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ball State, which is apparently Indiana.
We've tracked huge movement on the under for the latter two games, but Wisconsin's total stayed near the opener for quite a while. Though there has been some push back on the over, there have been multiple steam moves on the under coming in from different books, and it appears as though sharp bettors are buying into the forecast.
There are some games in other parts of the country expecting strong winds, too. Down in New Mexico, we have close to 20-mph winds for the Georgia Southern-New Mexico State affair.
Rain
This cold and breezy front isn't bringing just gale-force gusts to a stadium near you. Several of the games affected by wind might also include some light rain, including:
- Buffalo-Toledo
- Michigan-Michigan State
- Western Michigan-Central Michigan
- Eastern Michigan-Ball State
- Akron-Kent
Talk about unpleasant conditions. Temperatures for these games will be in the 40s with biting winds and potentially rain.
The quarterbacks are going to have trouble feeling their fingers, and the kickers — well, kickers in college generally suck regardless, so they'll be in for a real treat this weekend.
I've already grabbed a handful of these unders. And if history is any indication, you should do the same.
